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We Are Pushing Nature to the Edge—But Solutions Are Within Reach: Global Conversations on Sustainable Health

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By Davidson Ndyabahika and Johanna Blomgren

We’ve all done it—tossed leftovers, ignored wilted greens, or shrugged at a half-eaten meal. Food waste is a quiet guilt we all share, a reflex in a world of abundance and scarcity. But what if this small act connects to a larger global issue? On February 26, 2025, experts from Uganda, Sweden, and beyond gathered in a virtual seminar, asking, “How can we nourish ourselves without harming the planet?” Hosted by the Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Health (CESH), the discussion revealed a harsh truth—our food habits are draining the Earth.

The discussion on sustainable food systems marked the beginning of the annual four-part global conversation on sustainable health, organized through a collaboration between Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet and Uganda’s Makerere University under the auspices of CESH.

In Kampala, the paradox is stark. Every day, 750 tons of food waste fill the city’s landfills, enough to feed thousands. Rotten mangoes spill from crates in Nakasero Market, and half-eaten Rolex wraps pile behind street stalls. Uganda’s Food Rights Alliance shows 37.8% of this waste comes from plates and markets. Across East Africa, organic waste, like spoiled vegetables and discarded tubers, makes up 79% of urban trash—a grim reflection of broken systems. Beyond this is a city stuck with piles and piles of organic trash, which has previously been fatal with a slide in one of Kampala’s major landfills. Meanwhile, 26% of Uganda’s children remain stunted.

At the heart of this week’s global conversation was the WWF’s Living Planet Report 2024, a sobering revelation of a 73% decline in global wildlife populations since 1970. Freshwater ecosystems have hemorrhaged 85% of biodiversity, Latin America’s species richness has plummeted by 95%, and Africa—home to smallholder farmers who feed millions—has lost 76%. “Nature is disappearing at an alarming rate,” warned Harold Turinawe, WWF Uganda’s Forest Markets Transformation Manager, his voice weighted with urgency.

“We are pushing Earth’s systems to irreversible tipping points, and despite the increase in food production and land use and the destruction of habitats, the world is still hungry; we have over 735 million people going to bed hungry every other night. The contradiction is striking,” Turinawe added.

Mr. Harold Turinawe, Forest Markets Transformation Manager, World Wide Fund for Nature, Uganda Country Office. Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH), Kampala Uganda, East Africa-Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Health (CESH)-Global Conversations on Sustainable Health.

The report highlights the Amazon’s lush canopies that are felled for cattle ranches. The interplay of man’s unsustainable utilization of Mother Nature, leading to the food paradox, feast, famine, and ecological ruin, underscores the urgency of addressing global goals in a coordinated manner.

The report’s indictment of industrial food systems is clear: agriculture claims 40% of habitable land, 70% of freshwater, and drives 25% of greenhouse emissions. Yet, 735 million people still starve nightly. “Our obsession with monocultures and processed foods isn’t just destroying habitats—it’s failing humanity,” said Dr. Rawlance Ndejjo, the seminar’s moderator and a public health lecturer at Makerere University.

Florence Tushemerirwe, a Ugandan public health nutrition expert based at Makerere University’s School of Public Health, pointed out the irony: 26% of children are stunted, while obesity rises among adults in Uganda. “We grow nutrient-rich crops but export them, leaving people dependent on cheap, processed imports. In fact, many people do not appreciate their nutrient value,” she said. Uganda’s iodine-depleted soils now rely on fortified foods—a temporary fix for a growing crisis.

Ms. Florence Tushemerirwe, Public Health Nutritionist and Research Associate. Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH), Kampala Uganda, East Africa-Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Health (CESH)-Global Conversations on Sustainable Health.

All through the seminar, the message was clear: we are wasting abundance while ecosystems crumble and people go hungry. “Our salt is iodized because our soils no longer provide it. Biodiversity loss isn’t abstract—it’s stealing nutrients from our plates. But if we don’t maintain our nature’s health, or our environmental health, or our natural resources health, it means that whatever food we grow, we actually do not carry the nutrients we need to maintain a diverse diet,” said Tushemerirwe.

The panel dissected global food trade’s role. WWF’s Turinawe lamented, “90% of deforestation is for agriculture. In Uganda, the once-vibrant wetland ecosystems of Lwera at the shores of Lake Victoria now face severe degradation due to large-scale rice growers; in the Amazon, its cattle ranches.”

Dr. Rachel Marie Mazac of Stockholm Resilience Centre stressed Europe’s complicity: “Sweden’s ‘virtual biodiversity loss’—importing deforestation via beef and soy—shows how our diets export destruction.”

“From a Swedish perspective, we are highly dependent on imports, particularly raw materials, which contribute significantly to biodiversity loss in other regions. It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact impact, especially with biodiversity, but there’s a concept of “virtual impact,” says Dr. Mazac.

Dr. Rachel Mazac, Postdoctoral Researcher, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University. Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH), Kampala Uganda, East Africa-Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Health (CESH)-Global Conversations on Sustainable Health.

Food consumed in Sweden, though produced elsewhere, contributes to biodiversity loss in those areas. The issue links to trade, food production, and distribution. It’s not just about production or waste but also equitable distribution.

Dr. Ndejjo added starkly, “You could be eating a burger from a cow grazed on razed Amazon forest. Guilt isn’t enough—we need systemic change.”

Amid the grim statistics, the panelists outlined a roadmap for redemption: nature-positive agriculture, subsidy policy reform, improved localized diets, global accountability, and honest discussions on the GMO dilemma.

Turinawe emphasized the need for agroecology in extension services—integrating trees, crops, and livestock to rebuild soil health and biodiversity. He stressed while critiquing Uganda’s Parish Development Extension Model for prioritizing enterprises for profit over sustainability. “We are saying get one million to a farmer. What are they producing? They are engaging in commodities that are predetermined. Nobody’s talking about Mother Nature. Who takes care of the soil? Who takes care of the water needs? Who takes care of the diversification we are talking about? But diversification in the diet begins with diversification on the farm. So my first issue is strengthening the agricultural extension services,” says Turinawe.

Adding that things like soil health management, land tenure system farmer-to-farmer network for peer learning, and fair farmer subsidies should be key to planning and agricultural extension.

“In Uganda, where I come from, and currently in Kampala, if you head north towards Zirobwe in Luweero District, you’ll find people we call Bibanja owners—essentially squatters who don’t own the land they occupy. These individuals cannot engage in sustainable agriculture as we’re discussing; their focus is survival. What we need are programs that give farmers secure land rights, which can motivate them to invest in soil health and environmental conservation—investments that take time. Improving soil is not a short-term effort; it requires long-term actions like planting trees, integrating practices, and using farmyard manure. None of this is realistic for someone who fears being displaced tomorrow. We need to approach this challenge collectively.”

Subsidies must reward sustainable practices, not industrial giants.

“Why not tax breaks for farmers using organic manure?” Turinawe challenged. “I would love to hear that a farmer that is engaged in sustainable cocoa production and coffee production gets a tax holiday rather than having a blanket of investors getting a holiday. Put subsidies and investment incentives in the right direction. We shall spur production, and of course, this will also bring in corporate partnerships, and we can make our supply chains safer, better, more green, and more sustainable,” Turinawe added.

Dr. Mazac noted that “nature-positive production can feed the world by optimizing crops, livestock, and wild fisheries, and supporting aquaculture that works with wetlands, not against them.” For Mazac, policy is key: She is also an advocate of subsidies and taxes that benefit farmers. Those that ensure incentives that improve soil health and maintain water quality as well as tackle climate change in order to make sustainability profitable.

“We must rethink trade to avoid widening the gap between food-producing areas and markets and instead support local farmers. Subsidies and taxes should empower these communities to nourish their populations before focusing on exports. While exports generate income, they also have significant impacts. A possible solution is changing production systems, but we must also shift dietary and consumption habits, making this a collective effort, not just an individual responsibility.”

Tushemerirwe is hungry for reviving indigenous crops and regulating predatory marketing. “Awareness is power. We must teach communities to value their traditional foods over processed substitutes.”

“There is good food grown in rural areas and available in markets, but people don’t recognize its value due to lack of guidance. We need food-based data guidelines to raise awareness. The Uganda Ministry of Health has a draft for this, along with draft policies to regulate unhealthy food marketing, especially to children. Junk food is advertised everywhere: hospitals, schools, and even street billboards, with fast food chains clustered together. We must regulate this and educate people on the nutritional benefits of eating what they grow over imported alternatives,” she stated.

Dr. Ndejjo believes these draft guidelines to regulate unhealthy food marketing should be finalized into policies and urges policymakers and implementers to prioritize the urgent need for these documents.

Dr. Rawlence Ndejjo, Lecturer, Department of Disease Control and Environmental Health. Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH), Kampala Uganda, East Africa-Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Health (CESH)-Global Conversations on Sustainable Health.

The conversation also weighed in on the genetic engineering in agriculture for increased crop yields, popular for GMOs, a dilemma that panelists called for their democratization rather than demonizing them. While Dr. Mazac cautioned against corporate-controlled seeds, Turinawe acknowledged their potential: “If democratized, drought-resistant crops could save farms in a warming world.”

Dr. Mazac noted that while in Europe and the European Union, they are not allowed to grow or sell foods that have been genetically modified, the essence of them should not be overlooked, since they are a technology that seeks to solve the future food crisis.

 “GMOs aren’t inherently evil. Drought-resistant crops could save farms—but corporate patents trap farmers,” she said.

Turinawe added, “Our approach to GMO’s is a measure one bordering more on ethics and responsible use of GMOs; we see GMOs as a tool to promote resilience, especially since everything has changed—the food we once relied on can no longer grow in the same way. If GMOs help improve crop resilience, that’s a valuable tool. However, there are concerns that companies like Monsanto could use the GMO technology as a tool of exclusion, e.g., the fear of monopolizing future seed markets. This is where caution is needed.”

A Call for Radical Collaboration

The seminar’s resounding theme was unity: multi-sectoral collaboration is non-negotiable. From street food vendors to policymakers in the boardrooms, every actor must align. “Food systems aren’t siloed,” Dr. Mazac asserted. “They’re woven into climate, economy, and culture.”

“I think we need to sit and agree and engage quite regularly and find solutions for us to be able to produce food but sustainably,” concluded Tushemerirwe.

The Path Ahead

CESH’s global conversations on sustainable health are a microcosm of a global awakening, especially in tracking progress to meet our goals for 2030 and beyond: This seminar on food systems emphasizes the interconnectedness of food security and biodiversity. With the next UN Climate Summit (COP29) on the horizon, the panel’s message is clear—transformative change is possible, but only through courage, equity, and an unyielding reverence for nature.

To find more about this global conversation on sustainable health and more, visit CESH.health

Davidson Ndyabahika and Johanna Blomgren are the co-organisers of the global conversation on sustainable health

Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH), Kampala Uganda, East Africa-Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Health (CESH)-Global Conversations on Sustainable Health.

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WHO Report Highlights Global Drowning Burden as MakSPH Contributes to Evidence and Action

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Demonstration of emergency medical procedures performed by the Uganda Red Cross Society at the first-ever National Water Safety Swimming Gala organised by the Ministry of Water and Environment at Greenhill Academy in Kibuli on March 21, 2026. Photo: Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH), Kampala Uganda, East Africa.

Makerere University School of Public Health, through its Centre for the Prevention of Trauma, Injury and Disability, contributed to the Global Status Report on Drowning Prevention 2024, the first comprehensive global assessment of drowning burden, risk factors, and country-level responses.

Published by the World Health Organisation, the report estimates that approximately 300,000 people died from drowning in 2021, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries, which account for 92% of deaths. The African Region records the highest mortality rate, underscoring the urgency of targeted interventions. Children and young people remain the most affected, with drowning ranking among the leading causes of death for those under 15 years.

While global drowning rates have declined by 38% since 2000, progress remains uneven and insufficient to meet broader development targets. The report highlights critical gaps in national responses, including limited multisectoral coordination, weak policy and legislative frameworks, and inadequate integration of key preventive measures such as swimming and water safety education.

It further identifies persistent data limitations, with many countries lacking detailed information on where and how drowning occurs, constraining the design of targeted interventions. At the same time, the report notes progress in selected areas, including early warning systems and community-based disaster risk management.

MakSPH’s contribution to this global evidence base reflects its role in advancing research, strengthening data systems, and supporting context-specific approaches to injury prevention. Through its Centre, the School continues to inform policy and practice, contributing to efforts to reduce drowning risks and improve population health outcomes in Uganda and similar settings.

The full report can be accessed below:

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Makerere University’s role in empowering Uganda’s Vital Statistics for CRVS Reform

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MUCHAP has demonstrated how academic research frameworks can be integrated into national systems to strengthen Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS). Makerere University, Kampala Uganda, East Africa. Photo: Nano Banana 2

By Dan Kajungu

In many low- and middle-income countries, mortality data remains a critical gap in public health planning, often leaving a significant portion of the population “invisible” in official records. In Uganda, where national death registration completeness has historically hovered around a mere 20%, Makerere University Centre for Health and Population Research (MUCHAP) is leading a transformative initiative. By leveraging the infrastructure of the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), MUCHAP has demonstrated how academic research frameworks can be integrated into national systems to strengthen Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS).

A Bridge between research and governance

The core of this success lies in the collaboration between Makerere University’s infrastructure and government agencies, specifically the National Identification and Registration Authority (NIRA). This partnership, supported by the Uganda National Public Health Institute (UNPHI) and international partners like the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health Initiative at the CDC Foundation, aimed at aligning local death recording practices with the legal requirements of the Registration of Persons Act (ROPA) 2015.

By utilizing the existing MUCHAP Iganga Mayuge HDSS platform, which has monitored births and deaths in the Iganga and Mayuge districts since 2005, the project demonstrated the use of a decentralized notification process. This model utilises Village Health Teams (VHTs) who already serve as HDSS scouts and part of the Ministry of Health systems as official death notifiers. These VHTs assist households in completing official NIRA notification forms at the household/community level, which are then verified by local leaders and submitted to District Registration Offices.

Impact: From 20% to over 70% completeness

The results of this collaboration have been profound. In the pilot sub counties in the districts of Iganga and Mayuge, death registration completeness reached 73–79%, a dramatic improvement over the prevailing national estimates. During the study period, 2,992 deaths were officially registered within the national CRVS system.

Key drivers of this success included:

  • Reduced barriers: Decentralization brought the registration process closer to home, with an average travel distance of only 4–5 km for notification, compared to the significant distances previously required to reach district offices.
  • Cost savings: Families reported that the community-based process eliminated unofficial fees and high transportation costs, facilitating essential cultural and legal tasks like property inheritance and appointing heirs.
  • Advanced surveillance: The project proved that local health personnel could successfully conduct verbal autopsies (VA) in non-HDSS settings, providing critical data on causes of death that were previously unavailable for home-based deaths.

Sustainability and future potential

The MUCHAP-IMHDSS model is designed for long-term sustainability and national scalability. By embedding these tasks within the routine activities of VHTs and local leaders, the process becomes streamlined and cost-effective over time. The project also highlights that community sensitization is vital to maintaining trust and ensuring high participation rates, particularly in rural areas.

Looking forward, this initiative serves as a scalable blueprint for the rest of Uganda and other low-resource settings. Future engagements are expected to focus on:

  1. National scale-up: Applying the lessons learned from Iganga and Mayuge to the entire country to close the mortality surveillance data gap.
  2. Integration with health systems: Linking the CRVS data with broader health information systems to enhance pandemic preparedness and routine public health actions.
  3. Regional leadership: Aligning with the Africa CDC’s initiative to strengthen mortality surveillance across the continent, positioning Uganda’s university-led model as a regional gold standard.

The HDSS-CRVS integration Project Leader Dr. Dan Kajungu who is the Executive Director of MUCHAP emphasised that “through this work, Makerere University has again proved that academic infrastructure is not just for research, but a vital engine for building resilient national governance and health systems”. This work was disseminated at the 2026 CRVS Research Forum in Bangkok, Thailand and can be accessed at https://shorturl.at/8JLTd

Dan Kajungu Msc PhD is the Executive Director MUCHAP

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World Malaria Day 2026: Makerere scientists have found the countdown clock for when Ugandan children will die from malaria: The question is whether anyone is listening

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Makerere University scientists have found the countdown clock for when Ugandan children will die from malaria: The question is whether anyone is listening. Photo: Nano Banana 2, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.

On a day when the world declares it can and must end malaria, new research from Eastern Uganda shows climate change is working against us and that the evidence to fight back exists right here at home

Special Feature | World Malaria Day, 25 April 2026

By Health and Science Correspondent

Today, 25 April 2026, Uganda joins the rest of the world in marking World Malaria Day under the global theme: “Driven to End Malaria: Now We Can. Now We Must.” It is a rallying cry rooted in genuine optimism. Since 2000, 2.3 billion malaria cases and 14 million deaths have been averted globally. Forty-seven countries have been certified malaria-free, and between 2000 and 2024, the number of malaria-endemic countries fell sharply from 108 to 80.

Uganda is not one of those success stories, not yet. Malaria is endemic in 96% of Uganda, accounting for 29.1% of outpatient visits and 39.5% of hospital admissions, with over 17,556 estimated malaria deaths annually, the highest burden falling on children under five years of age. And on this World Malaria Day, a new alarm has been sounded from the heart of one of Uganda’s most malaria-burdened communities, not by foreign researchers, not by a distant global health organisation, but by scientists at Makerere University, drawing on two decades of data they have collected in the villages of Iganga and Mayuge in Eastern Uganda.

Their message is urgent: climate change is silently and measurably worsening Uganda’s malaria crisis. But this is the equally important half of the story. They have now identified the precise conditions under which children die, and exactly how long in advance those deaths can be predicted. Uganda has, for the first time, a scientifically validated early warning system for climate-driven malaria mortality. Whether the country chooses to use it is now a question of political will, not scientific capacity.

The study and the platform that made it possible

Published in BMC Public Health in August 2025, the study — “Climate-driven malaria mortality among children in malaria-endemic areas of Uganda” — was led by Dan Kajungu of Makerere University‘s Centre for Health and Population Research (MUCHAP). It analysed 14 years of weekly malaria death data from January 2008 to December 2022 matched against climate variables, using a sophisticated time-series statistical approach called the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model.

The data came from the Iganga Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (IMHDSS), the population research platform that Makerere University has operated continuously since 2005. The IMHDSS population cohort collects data from 65 villages located within an area of 155 square kilometres, monitoring a population of close to 100,000 people. The site has 23 health facilities, including two general hospitals, and a bimodal tropical climate with rainfall seasons from March to May and September to November.

What makes the IMHDSS extraordinary and what made this study possible is its method of capturing deaths. Rather than relying on hospital registers that miss the majority of rural deaths, malaria deaths were identified using verbal autopsies and the InterVA algorithm, a probabilistic tool that uses verbal autopsy questionnaires and Bayesian statistical techniques to estimate the probabilities of various causes of death based on signs and symptoms reported by bereaved families. Three different WHO verbal autopsy tools are used, tailored for neonates, children, and adults respectively.

In other words, when a child dies in a village in Iganga, the IMHDSS knows about it. It interviews the family. It determines why the child died. And it has been doing this, without interruption, for twenty years. The result is a dataset that is both scientifically rare and profoundly Ugandan, generated here, about us, by our own researchers.

A total of 858 malaria-related deaths were recorded in the Iganga-Mayuge districts between 2008 and 2022. Of these, 53% were among males and 47% females. The vast majority, about 73% occurred among children under five years of age, while the fewest deaths occurred among those aged 15 to 49 years. Males exhibited higher mortality proportions across all age groups, except among the elderly.

Eight hundred and fifty-eight deaths. Each one a child or adult with a name, a family, a community. Each one counted.

The finding that changes everything: Uganda now has a malaria early warning system

The scientific heart of this study, the finding that every health planner, every district malaria coordinator, and every Minister of Health in Uganda should understand is this: the researchers have identified the exact temperature and rainfall thresholds at which malaria deaths among children rise, and how many weeks in advance those deaths can be predicted.

The study found an increased mortality risk across all ages at a lag of 11 to 12 weeks following exposure to rainfall above 646 mm. Higher risks of malaria mortality were also observed at a lag of 5 to 11 weeks when temperatures ranged between 25.2°C and 29.9°C. Critically, the relative risk of malaria mortality in children under five years and children aged between 5 and 14 years was more sensitive to temperature than to rainfall.

Read that again, slowly. When temperatures in Eastern Uganda climb into the range of 25.2°C to 29.9°C, children begin dying of malaria five to eleven weeks later. When extreme rainfall events exceed 646 mm, deaths rise eleven to twelve weeks after that exposure. Uganda’s meteorological service measures temperature and rainfall continuously. Uganda’s health system manages malaria interventions. These two systems have never been formally connected, but the science to connect them now exists.

This is what a malaria early warning system looks like. Not a foreign technology imported at great expense. Not a satellite system requiring international expertise to interpret. A Ugandan scientific finding, produced from Ugandan data, that tells Ugandan health authorities: when you see these weather conditions, stock your health centres, distribute your bed nets, deploy your community health workers, and prepare, because the deaths are coming in six to twelve weeks if you do not act.

On this World Malaria Day, when the global community declares that ending malaria is now possible, Uganda has precisely this tool in its hands. The only question is whether it will use it.

Climate change is not a future threat, it is already killing children

The global theme for World Malaria Day 2026 carries urgency partly because climate change, conflict, and humanitarian crises continue to drive malaria resurgence and disrupt essential services. The Makerere study puts specific, local flesh on that global warning.

Malaria is climate-sensitive, changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, and relative humidity affect the dynamics and intensity of malaria transmission by influencing the habitats of mosquitoes and parasites and their biological growth cycle. Climate remains an indirect cause of malaria mortality by affecting parasite development during periods of high rainfall and temperatures, leading to increased transmission, morbidity, and severe malaria outcomes.

The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, the species responsible for almost all malaria deaths in Uganda requires specific temperature ranges to complete its development inside the Anopheles mosquito. Too cold, and development slows or stops. Too hot, and it also stops. But within the range that Eastern Uganda increasingly inhabits, and will inhabit more frequently as global temperatures rise, the parasite thrives, multiplies, and kills.

The World Malaria Report 2025 warns that drug resistance is now confirmed in four African countries including Uganda, where artemisinin partial resistance has been detected. Insecticide resistance to pyrethroids – the main chemical on bed nets is now confirmed in 48 out of 53 reporting countries. As the tools Uganda currently relies on including bed nets, indoor spraying, artemisinin-based drugs face mounting biological resistance, the importance of climate-informed prevention strategies grows exponentially. Deploying interventions at exactly the right time, guided by weather data, becomes not just efficient but essential.

The children most at risk: a finding that demands a policy response

Among the study’s most striking findings is the specific vulnerability of school-age boys. A group almost entirely absent from Uganda’s current malaria prevention architecture.

Male children aged between 5 and 14 years were found to be more vulnerable to temperature-related malaria mortality compared to females in that age group and compared to children under five years. Rainfall did not have a significant association with malaria mortality in children.

Uganda’s National Malaria Control Programme, like most in sub-Saharan Africa, has historically concentrated resources on two priority groups: children under five and pregnant women. These groups are undeniably vulnerable and deserve protection. But this study shows that school-age boys are dying from temperature-driven malaria at rates that demand their inclusion in prevention strategies.

School-aged children between 5 and 14 years have higher malaria prevalence, with 70% carrying the malaria parasite asymptomatically in high transmission settings. They carry the parasite silently, sustaining transmission in their communities, and they die when temperatures rise, particularly the boys, who in rural Uganda spend more time outdoors, sleep less consistently under nets, and receive less parental health supervision than their sisters as they grow older.

The study’s area is itself among the most heavily burdened in Uganda. The Iganga-Mayuge area has a malaria prevalence rate of 39.4% in children under five years old, making it one of the areas in Uganda most severely impacted by malaria, and the disease is the leading cause of mortality in children there. In such a high-transmission setting, the combination of asymptomatic carriage, temperature-driven transmission spikes, and inadequate prevention coverage for school-age children is a formula for preventable death.

On World Malaria Day 2026, as Uganda declares its commitment to ending malaria, the national malaria strategy must be updated to reflect this evidence. School-based distribution of insecticide-treated nets, school health programmes that include malaria education and early symptom recognition, and targeted community outreach for families with boys aged 5 to 14 are not optional additions, they are evidence-based necessities.

The platform: Makerere‘s IMHDSS as a national asset for malaria elimination

None of the findings in this study would have been possible without the IMHDSS and on World Malaria Day, it is worth being explicit about what that platform represents for Uganda’s future.

The IMHDSS platform has measured various indicators about coverage and uptake of national interventions including the coverage and utilisation of immunisation and vaccines, mosquito nets for malaria vector control, household income improvement, and family planning, and other behaviour change interventions at community level, strengthening the evaluation of burden of disease at the subnational level.

For malaria specifically, the IMHDSS has now produced the most granular mortality data in Uganda’s history capturing not just how many children die, but exactly which weather conditions preceded those deaths, which sex and age group is most vulnerable, and what the biological and epidemiological mechanisms are that connect climate to the grave. This is the kind of intelligence that a National Malaria Control Programme needs to move from reactive crisis management to proactive, evidence-driven prevention.

Scarcity of quality data remains a key development bottleneck in low and middle-income countries, and the Iganga-Mayuge HDSS represents a Makerere University platform for research and research training with a population-based cohort that longitudinally generates data for evidence-based decisions and policy.

Uganda’s malaria elimination goal, to bring mortality to zero will not be achieved by effort and goodwill alone. It requires data. It requires the kind of longitudinal, community-level, cause-of-death data that only a platform like the IMHDSS can generate. And it requires the institutional will to connect that data to the decisions that determine whether children live or die.

What must happen now

The global call on World Malaria Day 2026 is clear: “Now We Can. Now We Must.” For Uganda, the Makerere climate-malaria study translates that call into three specific and achievable actions.

First, the Ministry of Health and Uganda National Meteorological Authority must establish a formal, operational malaria early warning system. One that uses real-time weather monitoring to trigger predetermined health system responses when temperature and rainfall thresholds identified by this research are breached. The science is ready. The infrastructure for meteorological monitoring exists. What is needed is the institutional bridge between them.

Second, Uganda’s National Malaria Control Programme must extend its prevention focus to include school-age children, particularly boys aged 5 to 14, in all high-transmission areas. Bed net campaigns must reach schools, not just health centres and antenatal clinics. Community health workers must be equipped to identify and treat malaria in this age group as a priority.

Third, and most fundamentally, the Government of Uganda must formally recognise and domestically resource the IMHDSS as national public health infrastructure. The 2024 global malaria funding of US$3.9 billion was less than half of the US$9.3 billion target, leaving a projected shortfall of US$5.4 billion that leaves the response dangerously under-resourced. In a world where international health financing is under historic pressure, Uganda cannot afford to have its most powerful evidence-generation platform dependent entirely on foreign philanthropy. The IMHDSS is a Ugandan asset. It must be funded as one.

Today, children in Iganga and Mayuge are alive who might not be, because the research generated by the IMHDSS informed the malaria interventions that reached their communities. Today, Makerere scientists have given Uganda a tool, a climate-based early warning system for malaria deaths that no other country in East Africa currently possesses.

Now we can. Now we must.

The evidence is there. The science is done. The only thing Uganda needs now is the will to act on it.

“Climate-driven malaria mortality among children in malaria-endemic areas of Uganda” is published open-access in BMC Public Health, Volume 25, Article 2825, August 2025. Full text available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-025-23678-0

The Iganga Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (IMHDSS) is operated by MUCHAP, Makerere University. Contact: info@muchap.mak.ac.ug or dkajungu@muchap.mak.ac.ug| Tel: +256 772 207127 (Dr. Dan Kajungu)

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