Health
Global Conversations: Climate Change Multiplies Health Risks, A Call to Action on Extreme Weather Effects
By Davidson Ndyabahika, Johanna Blomgren and Julius T. Mugaga
Experts have urged urgent action to mitigate the health risks of climate change. The 2023 global conversation, on Climate Change and Health highlighted the need for transformational action in every sector to protect people’s health from climate change.
Held on September 5, 2023 the virtual seminar, organized by the Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Health (CESH), a collaboration between Makerere University and the Karolinska Institutet that aims to increase capacity and spur action to advance the agenda for sustainable health drew over 230 attendees from all over the world. It placed emphasis on mitigating the effects of extreme weather, such flooding.
In its 2023 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that global terrestrial, freshwater, and ocean ecosystems have already been affected by climate change, along with the associated losses and costs. It predicts that heavy rainfall and flooding events are expected to worsen and occur more frequently in the majority of regions of Africa, Asia, North America, and Europe by 1.5°C global warming (high confidence).
The 2023 IPCC report identifies barriers that prevent people and society from implementing climate-resilient behaviors. Financial limitations, conflicts with the SDGs, inequalities, institutional, economic, and social hurdles, as well as dispersed strategies, are a few of these. The panel equally agree that if global warming exceeds 1.5 °C and the SDGs are not adequately progressed, chances for climate-resilient development would be considerably more limited.
Now, during the seminar, the panel, by consensus agreed that climate change is critical citing that such conversations on critical factors in relation to the climate and health crisis are not only timely but necessary.
Climate change impacts the social determinants of health, which include excellent health and wellbeing, by causing decreased food output, low fishing yields, flooding, and infrastructure damage, according to Daniel Helldén, a PhD student at KI Department of Global Public Health.
“The future emission scenarios are dire. What is becoming more and more clear is that climate change is a generational issue. Children born today will continue to bear the biggest burden of climate change impact,” said Helldén.
Dr. Mugume Isaac Amooti, the Director of Weather Forecasting Services at the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), emphasized the importance of considering both long-term averages and unprecedented weather events driven by climate change. These events are thought extreme only when they exceed past records. He noted for instance that in Uganda; “The widespread flooding brought on by heavy and frequent precipitation is what we are seeing in Uganda, particularly in the cities. However, we are witnessing heat waves and cold waves at different times of the year.”
Although there isn’t a clear pattern in Sweden’s precipitation, Dr. Johanna Sörensen of Lund University in Sweden said that forecasts suggest that rainfall may increase by the end of the century. Given the flooding problems that already present, this, she says is something to worry about. “Flooding is increasing not only because of climate change but also even more that we construct the cities more densely and we construct buildings and industries on lowly areas that we used not to do in the past which is of course not a good idea.”
Dr. Tamer Rabie, a lead health specialist at the World Bank Group, notes that risks are amplified by climate change, which therefore has an intensified negative impact. He points out, for instance, that in order to comprehend how climate change and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will affect health, it is critical to view climate change as a risk multiplier.
Dr. Tamer, also the architect of the World Bank’s global Health-Climate and Environment Program (H-CEP), underscored three pathways through which climate change impacts health: direct effects, indirect effects, and those mediated by ecosystems. Some of the direct pathways include issues like increased temperatures likely to lead to heat waves, heat-related illnesses, worsened non-communicable diseases, and increase in the risk of events like traumatic injuries.
According to Dr. Tamer, ecosystem-mediated risks include vector-borne diseases (like Malaria and Dengue), foodborne illnesses, and waterborne diseases (like Cholera). These risks are closely tied to how health outcomes are influenced by the ecosystem. Additionally, indirect health impacts encompass mental health due to population displacements, as well as malnutrition resulting from shifts in food production and overall food systems.
“We have done estimates in the World Bank that show that extreme weather events and climate change will lead to pushing nearly 132 million people into extreme poverty by 2030. If you look at the health impacts within those figures and the main drivers, we are seeing that nearly 44 million out of those 132 will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 if we don’t take any action today,” Dr. Tamer.
According to Dr. Tamer, the World Bank has conducted climate and health vulnerability assessments specifically looking at the cost of inaction moving into the 2030s and 2050s using information that relates to malaria, dengue, diarrhea, stunting in children, heat related illnesses, floods, among others.
“What we are seeing is that on average, countries will be losing anywhere between 1-5% of their GDP as a result of not really addressing the climate crisis, not being able to address these impacts that we are talking about, and obviously not investing enough into the health systems to be able to be more resilient,” Dr. Tamer noted during the webinar.
According to Dr. Sara Gabrielsson, an Associate Senior Lecturer in Sustainability Science at Lund University’s Centre for Sustainability Studies (LUCSUS), addressing immediate health risks involves containing flooding, which is just one aspect of climate change-related challenges like sea level rise and drought.
She highlights the connection between various deadly diseases like dengue, typhoid, trachoma, and cholera among others to this issue. During a crisis like flooding, treatment for these diseases she notes often takes a backseat due to the overwhelming health burdens that arise.
“There is death from drowning or direct injury from debris in these very storm surges, but then we also have the issue of just water sitting, waiting in water for longer periods, leading to lots of infections, urine-tract infections, vaginal infections, skin diseases, hypothermia, lots of those kinds of things, but also vector-borne diseases, and especially malaria, which is, of course, one big thing here,” Dr. Gabrielsson opines.
She adds that flooding brings problems like contaminated drinking water, leading to chronic diarrhea and malnutrition. Additionally, damaged sanitation facilities force people into open defecation, exposing them to harmful bacteria and further risk of chronic diarrhea.
“These immediate health risks are just the beginning. Moving into long-term risks, flooding severely impacts the availability of clean water for basic hygiene. As we’ve learned from COVID, hygiene is paramount for health. Insufficient handwashing and personal hygiene can breed disease. We need proper hygiene for preparing food, tending to babies, managing menstrual health, and more. Without it, there’s increased exposure to harmful bacteria, compounded by the use of inadequate sanitation systems, resulting in outbreaks of various diseases,” observed Gabrielsson.
Way forward
Dr. Sörensen, from a Swedish standpoint, proposes proactive steps to mitigate flooding. These include slowing down water flow, discouraging construction in flood-prone zones, and avoiding building in areas prone to heavy rain. She points out that in cities like Mumbai and Gothenburg, there has been a concerning trend of construction in flood-prone regions. Dr. Sörensen emphasizes the importance of adapting solutions for creating greener, more sustainable cities. “In China, they call it a sponge city. It’s like a sponge—you fill it up with water during rainfall and then use it later for various purposes. Utilizing vegetation and water storage helps retain water and slow down its flow in urban areas. Green spaces in cities are crucial for health, well-being, and providing shade, especially during heatwaves,” she says.
In Uganda, Dr. Mugume notes that the government has invested in weather monitoring infrastructure, including the three weather radars, which are strategically spread across the country to enable UNMA to monitor weather at any part of the country.
“With this technology, we can now offer more precise and timely services, ensuring our communities respond effectively. Weather and climate forecasts range from hourly to seasonal projections. Shorter forecasts tend to be more accurate, although longer ones still fall within manageable limits. For instance, our seasonal forecast accuracy in Uganda is at 90%, aligning with National Development Plan 3. We collaborate with development partners to fine-tune these forecasts.”
For Dr. Gabrielsson, preparedness is key, especially for the 2.2 billion people worldwide relying on sanitation systems, many of whom live in rapidly urbanizing areas and unplanned settlements.
Unfortunately, these systems often lack proper management, leading to health risks. In urban settings, she says, the spread of sludge from these systems can have widespread health implications. To address this, there’s a pressing need to prioritize climate-resilient sanitation systems. Historically, the sanitation sector has been under-prioritized, resulting in insufficient funding and political attention. Without a one-size-fits-all solution due to diverse living habits, cultural considerations become paramount. A gender-responsive approach is crucial, as women are primarily responsible for WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) practices.
“It involves recognizing the unique needs of different groups, such as refugees, the elderly, disabled individuals, children, and menstruating individuals. Climate-resilient wash infrastructure requires community responsibility, government policy, and financial support. For instance, in flood-prone areas like the Amazon Basin, sanitation facilities are designed to align with local livelihoods, incorporating features like composting latrines that produce manure for farming and collecting rainwater for handwashing. This approach ensures environmental safety and sustainable practices,” she observes.
Dr. Gabrielsson emphasizes the importance of cultural acceptance in encouraging people’s dedication to upholding basic sanitation and hygiene practices, particularly in the face of flooding. “Another example I presented is a UNICEF-supported toilet in Bangladesh. It’s elevated with precast concrete rings to prevent flooding, sealed with concrete mortar for contamination prevention, and reinforced to withstand heavy rain and wind. This design was developed in close consultation with local communities, ensuring cultural acceptance and affordability. The goal is to create facilities that people actually want to use, which is why it’s crucial to integrate natural and social sciences for effective solutions.”
The World Bank has substantially supported action on climate change, including both adaptation and mitigation initiatives. Dr. Tamer says over $2.2 billion has been set aside as of today for climate-related health interventions, especially in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Significant assistance has also been given to assist tiny island states in managing the effects of climate change, particularly extreme events.
In Yemen, the World Bank has sponsored efforts to put in place electronic early warning systems for real-time health data and policy response due to outbreaks of diseases including cholera and malaria. In Madagascar, the World Bank has funded work combining climate and nutrition programming. The World Bank worked with the government of Ghana to create long-lasting vaccine delivery networks.
At a ceremony held on 30th May 2025, themed ‘They taught us without saying a word’, the Makerere University College of Health Sciences (MakCHS) commemorated the silent teacher which are the cadavers (bodies) used in anatomy classes for medical students. In addition to a commemoration service, the event was used to create awareness and sensitise the public about the the importance of whole body donation.
The chief guest at the commemoration was Professor Mukadasi Buyinza, Deputy Vice Chancellor – Academic Affairs representing the Vice Chancellor, Professor Barnabas Nawangwe. The event attended by MakCHS students, staff and alumni was organised by students under Anatomy Society of MakCHS supported by Department of Anatomy and MakCHS leadership.
Welcoming guests to the event, Waziwu Mordecai–final year student of medicine and surgery who serves as President of the Anatomy Society, MakCHS explained that the reason for the gathering is three-pronged: to commemorate the silent teachers who make a profound contribution to medical education; to instill knowledge, compassion, and professionalism in future healthcare providers; and call on the community to support this noble act through awareness, advocacy, or future donation. ‘May the memory of our silent teachers live on in every life we will one day save’, he said.
The Anatomy society was founded in 2013 with aim of students providing peer mentorship to fellow students in lower years, such mentorship sessions help students appreciate better the anatomy of the human body. The society has supported:enhanced learning and mentorship; promoted academic participation including internal and external quizzes; and fostered connections including strengthen relationships between students across classes and with alumni.
Professor Elisa Mwaka, Head – Department of Human Anatomy welcomed all present for attending the ceremony. He thanked the College management led by the Principal, Professor Bruce Kirenga for the support provided in organizing the ceremony. He also expressed utmost appreciation to the Vice Chancellor for attending despite the competing priorities requiring his attention.
Professor Mwaka highlighted that we are here today, to pay our respect to the individuals whose bodies have been used for medical examination and research at MakCHS through offering prayers as well as sensitize people about willful/consented whole body donation.
Professor Mwaka explained that globally, sources of whole bodies for medical education and research are got through willed whole-body donation, unclaimed bodies in hospitals, imported bodies, executed persons among other means. In Uganda, unclaimed bodies in hospitals are used for medical as determined by the Uganda National Rules in the Penal Code Act of 1957.
In 2012 International Federation of Anatomy Associations (IFAA) recommended voluntary donation as the desirable and the only acceptable source for acquiring bodies. Almost all Africa countries and some European countries lack national body donation programs.
Speaking at the event, Professor Bruce Kirenga, Principal – MakCHS thanked Professor Mwaka for the insightful presentation. He welcomed Professor Buyinza to MakCHS and for accepting to attend despite the late invitation. He recognized the presence of the staff present and support towards the college activities.
Professor Kirenga underlined the importance of biomedical science under which human anatomy falls in medical education. ‘Biomedical sciences play a key role, once someone in grounded in the area, then he will be a good doctor’, he said.
The Principal also stressed that during his term of office operation efficiency will remain key ingredient for service delivery as well as rebuilding and rehabilitation of teaching and learning facilities. ‘Works to make the Biochemistry laboratory a model lab has commenced with a contract awarded to service provider; the refurbishment will be in phases’.
Professor Buyinza Mukadasi thanked the College, Human Anatomy department and the students for organizing the commemoration. ‘The amount of joy I have this morning, we should have done this a long time ago’, he said.
He expressed happiness at this commemoration for the silent teachers who unknowingly give so much to medical education and therefore mankind. He advised that community engagement to create awareness about the need for whole-body donation, regulatory compliance, and alignment to best practices.
He noted that disciplines like medicine is more like charity because medical practitioners give so much of themselves. ‘The number of people attending this ceremony is show of love for the discipline and commitment to the calling’ he said.
Professor Buyinza reiterated the commitment of Makerere University management to support MakCHS endeavours including this culture of commemorating the silent teacher. ‘Well-trained and season doctors are a result of the process explained here and the absence of bodies affects the quality of education provided and therefore the doctors produced’, he added.
Candles for the cadavers were lit and services representative of Anglican, Catholics and Muslims were conducted to remember the souls of the departed and wish them a peaceful rest. Ordinand Cosmas Ddembe for Anglican, Father Valentine Amuneke for Catholic and Dr. Haruna Kiryowa for Muslim preached the importance of respect for the dead and sacrifices of the dead for advancement of research and education in the medical field and health services.
Giving closing remarks, Professor Mwaka noted that setting up whole-body donation programs in Africa requires a holistic approach involving education, cultural sensitivity, legal structures, and partnerships with medical institutions.
Reasons why Africa has failed to establish body donation programs:
- Low awareness and willingness to donate bodies.
- Cultural and traditional beliefs
- Religious beliefs
- Fear of mishanding bodies
- Lack of legislation/ ambiguous regulations
- Lack of institutional policies and standard operating procedures
- Institutions should be encouraged to hold Services of thanksgiving or commemoration for those who have donated their bodies for medical education and research.
The following is required to change the current status:
- Cultural sensitivity and awareness
- Community engagement and awareness creation
- Educational campaigns
- Developing legal and ethical frameworks
- Building partnerships between hospitals and medical institutions
- Establishing local body donation systems i.e.,
- donation registration process,
- consent documentation,
- Logistical infrastructure necessary for the
- donation process.
- Effective communication, public trust,transparency.
- Training and professional development of healthcare providers.
- Global collaboration and funding: to share knowledge, best practices, and resources.
- Government support
- Funding and incentives
- Inclusion of body donation in national health strategies.
In a decisive step toward ending HIV as a public health threat by 2030, Uganda on Thursday, May 29, 2025, officially launched the third Uganda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (UPHIA 2025) survey, a nationally representative household study expected to provide updated measurements on the status of the HIV epidemic by the end of the year.
The effort is led by Uganda’s Ministry of Health (MoH), with technical assistance from Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH), Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI), and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S. CDC), funded by the U.S. government through PEPFAR.
The Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys were first launched in 2014 as a global initiative at the International Center for AIDS Care and Treatment Programs (ICAP), based at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. Supported by the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), through the U.S. CDC, the surveys have been conducted in at least 15 high-burden countries globally, including Uganda.
Led by national Ministries of Health, the PHIA surveys provide robust, population-level data on HIV prevalence, incidence, and viral suppression, offering a clear picture of epidemic trends and the effectiveness of national responses. They are designed to track progress, identify persistent gaps, and inform strategies to reach epidemic control, in line with global targets, including the fast-approaching goal of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.
In Uganda, this survey was first rolled out between August 2016 and March 2017. The second followed in February 2020 but was disrupted by the COVID-19 outbreak, continuing through to March 2021. Both rounds were supported by ICAP at Columbia University, which provided technical assistance to strengthen data collection systems, improve laboratory infrastructure, and build national capacity to design, implement, and analyse the two national HIV surveys.
What sets UPHIA 2025 apart is the shift in technical leadership to Ugandan institutions for this third survey, reflecting local capacity to lead rigorous, high-quality public health research. For UPHIA 2025, Makerere University School of Public Health, in partnership with the Uganda Bureau of Statistics and the Uganda Virus Research Institute, is providing technical leadership to the Ministry of Health, alongside U.S. CDC. Implementation began with initial recruitment and training of over 300 field teams that begun on May 19, 2025, ahead of their nationwide deployment for data collection starting this June.
The first survey (UPHIA 2016) was an important milestone in informing Uganda’s national HIV response. This survey, concluded in 2017, measured, among things, the viral load suppression at the population level and provided household-based HIV testing and counselling, with results returned to participants and those who tested positive referred to care. The survey also assessed HIV incidence, HIV and syphilis prevalence, as well as hepatitis B infection rates. These findings would offer nationally representative data to track Uganda’s progress in controlling the HIV epidemic at both national and regional levels.
The next survey, UPHIA 2020, building on past success, was again executed with technical leadership from Columbia University’s ICAP, working with Uganda’s Ministry of Health alongside UVRI, UBOS, regional referral hospitals, local governments, and the U.S. CDC. It offered useful insights that showed encouraging progress, indicating that up to 88% of people living with HIV in Uganda at the time knew their status, 98% of them were on treatment, and 90% had achieved viral suppression. These results reflected momentum toward the UNAIDS global 95-95-95 targets, ensuring that most people living with HIV are diagnosed, treated, and have the virus under control, and advancing the broader goal of ending the epidemic by 2030.
Since the release of these findings nearly five years ago, which helped shape national HIV programming in Uganda, the country has made notable progress, but challenges remain. The UPHIA 2020 findings reported major gaps in testing coverage, particularly among young people and men. The results were also instrumental in identifying service delivery shortfalls and guiding decisions on resource allocation, program design, and policy. Yet today, Uganda remains one of the most heavily burdened countries in the world, with over 1.5 million people living with HIV and over 50,000 preventable new infections recorded per year.
It is this trend that Uganda’s Ministry of Health is working urgently to reverse. Launching UPHIA 2025 at the Ministry’s headquarters in Kampala on May 29, 2025, amidst great hope and expectation among the participants, Uganda’s Minister of Health, Dr. Jane Ruth Aceng Ocero, noted that the long-anticipated and previously delayed survey had arrived at such a critical moment. She welcomed UPHIA 2025 as both a measure of the country’s resilience and a guide for the final stretch toward ending AIDS by 2030, now just a few years away.
“The UPHIA 2025 survey comes at a strategic time to help us recalibrate and refocus our efforts,” the Health Minister said, underscoring the importance of its outcomes. “This will be Uganda’s final population-based HIV survey before 2030, the target year for ending AIDS as a public health threat. The findings will serve as a baseline for tracking our progress toward this national and global goal. They will also guide the next phase of strategic planning, ensuring that the final push toward 2030 is grounded in robust and reliable data.”
This third round of the survey will be carried out in 6,685 randomly selected households across the country. The exercise will involve interviews with approximately 15,000 individuals aged at least 15 and selected through a national household listing by UBOS. Of those, around 14,980 are expected to provide blood samples for HIV testing and analysis of viral suppression and other health indicators. The survey will also include interviews with 1,300 children and adolescents aged 10 to 14, though no blood draws will be taken from this group. Participation is voluntary, free of charge, and requires consent from the head of each household.
Dr. Aceng explained that beyond providing updated estimates of HIV prevalence, incidence, and viral load suppression, and examining regional and demographic disparities, the survey, which will cover the rest of the year, will include a qualitative post-survey assessment component to gather insights from people living with HIV, particularly those not virally suppressed, to understand their challenges and strengthen support services. Also, for the first time, this survey will assess the burden of non-communicable diseases among people living with HIV and include focused interviews with adolescents aged 10 to 14 in Mid-North and Mid-Eastern Uganda, where viral suppression was reported to be lowest in UPHIA 2020.
These activities are made possible thanks to the development support from the U.S. government, which invested $10 million (about UGX 37 billion) for this survey. Speaking at the UPHIA 2025 launch, U.S. Ambassador to Uganda William W. Popp noted that the United States has partnered with Uganda for over three decades to help people live longer, healthier lives;
“The bulk of our annual support, approximately $500 million this year, is dedicated to health programs, making the U.S. government the largest single provider of health assistance to Uganda,” the Ambassador said. He added, “Through PEPFAR, the United States has played a major role in Uganda’s progress toward ending HIV as a public health threat. Since 2003, when Uganda became one of the first countries to implement the program, we have invested nearly three billion dollars—almost 11 trillion Uganda shillings—in HIV prevention, care, and treatment services, saving millions of lives and making both our countries safer from HIV.”
With the benefit of hindsight, Uganda’s early encounter with HIV in the 1980s marked the beginning of one of the region’s most severe epidemics. But over the decades, a determined national response, driven by political leadership, community mobilisation, collaboration and global support, has delivered measurable progress. In the recent past, adult HIV prevalence fell from 7.2% in 2010 to 5.1% in 2023. Among women, it declined from 8.5% to 6.6%, and among men from 5.8% to 3.6%. AIDS-related deaths dropped from 53,000 to 20,000 over the same period, with female mortality declining by 66% and child deaths by 77%.
All these gains, amidst the challenge, go to show what is possible with sustained commitment. What is more, throughout this long journey of Uganda’s battle with eradicating HIV, Makerere University School of Public Health has played a pivotal role. From the early work of Prof. David Serwadda, whose ground-breaking research during the initial detection of HIV helped shape Uganda’s early response, to last year’s 2024 landmark Purpose 1 study on the twice-yearly injectable Lenacapavir that proved 100% efficacy in preventing HIV infection, MakSPH has remained at the forefront of innovation, evidence generation, and policy influence.
That legacy continues today, with the School providing technical leadership to the Ministry of Health in the implementation of UPHIA 2025. At the launch, MakSPH Dean Prof. Rhoda Wanyenze expressed pride in the School’s role as a trusted partner in Uganda’s fight against HIV and other public health challenges. She noted that for over 70 years, during which the School has existed, MakSPH has helped shape the country’s public health landscape through rigorous research, training, and policy support, anchored by a strong, long-standing partnership with the Ministry of Health and partners.
She also noted that the collaboration between Makerere University and the U.S. CDC has helped build national capacity in surveillance and epidemiology, while also strengthening Uganda’s ability to lead high-quality, large-scale national surveys, asserting that:
“The partnership between Makerere University and CDC has not only helped build national capacity in surveillance and epidemiology, but has also strengthened our ability to lead high-quality, large-scale national surveys. After two decades of joint work, we are proud that UPHIA 2024–2025 is now a fully Ugandan-led effort. This is critical to the sustainability of the skills and knowledge generation to inform our local response.”
The survey builds on MakSPH’s experience conducting similar national studies, including those on tuberculosis, prison health, family planning, schistosomiasis, and non-communicable diseases such as the STEPS survey. It will leverage the School’s strong capacity in research and impact evaluation, both in Uganda and across the African region, with a firm commitment to delivering high-quality data guided by the same rigour and integrity that have defined our work over the years, Prof. Wanyenze affirmed.
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