Health
Global Conversations: Climate Change Multiplies Health Risks, A Call to Action on Extreme Weather Effects
By Davidson Ndyabahika, Johanna Blomgren and Julius T. Mugaga
Experts have urged urgent action to mitigate the health risks of climate change. The 2023 global conversation, on Climate Change and Health highlighted the need for transformational action in every sector to protect people’s health from climate change.
Held on September 5, 2023 the virtual seminar, organized by the Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Health (CESH), a collaboration between Makerere University and the Karolinska Institutet that aims to increase capacity and spur action to advance the agenda for sustainable health drew over 230 attendees from all over the world. It placed emphasis on mitigating the effects of extreme weather, such flooding.
In its 2023 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that global terrestrial, freshwater, and ocean ecosystems have already been affected by climate change, along with the associated losses and costs. It predicts that heavy rainfall and flooding events are expected to worsen and occur more frequently in the majority of regions of Africa, Asia, North America, and Europe by 1.5°C global warming (high confidence).
The 2023 IPCC report identifies barriers that prevent people and society from implementing climate-resilient behaviors. Financial limitations, conflicts with the SDGs, inequalities, institutional, economic, and social hurdles, as well as dispersed strategies, are a few of these. The panel equally agree that if global warming exceeds 1.5 °C and the SDGs are not adequately progressed, chances for climate-resilient development would be considerably more limited.
Now, during the seminar, the panel, by consensus agreed that climate change is critical citing that such conversations on critical factors in relation to the climate and health crisis are not only timely but necessary.
Climate change impacts the social determinants of health, which include excellent health and wellbeing, by causing decreased food output, low fishing yields, flooding, and infrastructure damage, according to Daniel Helldén, a PhD student at KI Department of Global Public Health.
“The future emission scenarios are dire. What is becoming more and more clear is that climate change is a generational issue. Children born today will continue to bear the biggest burden of climate change impact,” said Helldén.
Dr. Mugume Isaac Amooti, the Director of Weather Forecasting Services at the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), emphasized the importance of considering both long-term averages and unprecedented weather events driven by climate change. These events are thought extreme only when they exceed past records. He noted for instance that in Uganda; “The widespread flooding brought on by heavy and frequent precipitation is what we are seeing in Uganda, particularly in the cities. However, we are witnessing heat waves and cold waves at different times of the year.”
Although there isn’t a clear pattern in Sweden’s precipitation, Dr. Johanna Sörensen of Lund University in Sweden said that forecasts suggest that rainfall may increase by the end of the century. Given the flooding problems that already present, this, she says is something to worry about. “Flooding is increasing not only because of climate change but also even more that we construct the cities more densely and we construct buildings and industries on lowly areas that we used not to do in the past which is of course not a good idea.”
Dr. Tamer Rabie, a lead health specialist at the World Bank Group, notes that risks are amplified by climate change, which therefore has an intensified negative impact. He points out, for instance, that in order to comprehend how climate change and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will affect health, it is critical to view climate change as a risk multiplier.
Dr. Tamer, also the architect of the World Bank’s global Health-Climate and Environment Program (H-CEP), underscored three pathways through which climate change impacts health: direct effects, indirect effects, and those mediated by ecosystems. Some of the direct pathways include issues like increased temperatures likely to lead to heat waves, heat-related illnesses, worsened non-communicable diseases, and increase in the risk of events like traumatic injuries.
According to Dr. Tamer, ecosystem-mediated risks include vector-borne diseases (like Malaria and Dengue), foodborne illnesses, and waterborne diseases (like Cholera). These risks are closely tied to how health outcomes are influenced by the ecosystem. Additionally, indirect health impacts encompass mental health due to population displacements, as well as malnutrition resulting from shifts in food production and overall food systems.
“We have done estimates in the World Bank that show that extreme weather events and climate change will lead to pushing nearly 132 million people into extreme poverty by 2030. If you look at the health impacts within those figures and the main drivers, we are seeing that nearly 44 million out of those 132 will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 if we don’t take any action today,” Dr. Tamer.
According to Dr. Tamer, the World Bank has conducted climate and health vulnerability assessments specifically looking at the cost of inaction moving into the 2030s and 2050s using information that relates to malaria, dengue, diarrhea, stunting in children, heat related illnesses, floods, among others.
“What we are seeing is that on average, countries will be losing anywhere between 1-5% of their GDP as a result of not really addressing the climate crisis, not being able to address these impacts that we are talking about, and obviously not investing enough into the health systems to be able to be more resilient,” Dr. Tamer noted during the webinar.
According to Dr. Sara Gabrielsson, an Associate Senior Lecturer in Sustainability Science at Lund University’s Centre for Sustainability Studies (LUCSUS), addressing immediate health risks involves containing flooding, which is just one aspect of climate change-related challenges like sea level rise and drought.
She highlights the connection between various deadly diseases like dengue, typhoid, trachoma, and cholera among others to this issue. During a crisis like flooding, treatment for these diseases she notes often takes a backseat due to the overwhelming health burdens that arise.
“There is death from drowning or direct injury from debris in these very storm surges, but then we also have the issue of just water sitting, waiting in water for longer periods, leading to lots of infections, urine-tract infections, vaginal infections, skin diseases, hypothermia, lots of those kinds of things, but also vector-borne diseases, and especially malaria, which is, of course, one big thing here,” Dr. Gabrielsson opines.
She adds that flooding brings problems like contaminated drinking water, leading to chronic diarrhea and malnutrition. Additionally, damaged sanitation facilities force people into open defecation, exposing them to harmful bacteria and further risk of chronic diarrhea.
“These immediate health risks are just the beginning. Moving into long-term risks, flooding severely impacts the availability of clean water for basic hygiene. As we’ve learned from COVID, hygiene is paramount for health. Insufficient handwashing and personal hygiene can breed disease. We need proper hygiene for preparing food, tending to babies, managing menstrual health, and more. Without it, there’s increased exposure to harmful bacteria, compounded by the use of inadequate sanitation systems, resulting in outbreaks of various diseases,” observed Gabrielsson.
Way forward
Dr. Sörensen, from a Swedish standpoint, proposes proactive steps to mitigate flooding. These include slowing down water flow, discouraging construction in flood-prone zones, and avoiding building in areas prone to heavy rain. She points out that in cities like Mumbai and Gothenburg, there has been a concerning trend of construction in flood-prone regions. Dr. Sörensen emphasizes the importance of adapting solutions for creating greener, more sustainable cities. “In China, they call it a sponge city. It’s like a sponge—you fill it up with water during rainfall and then use it later for various purposes. Utilizing vegetation and water storage helps retain water and slow down its flow in urban areas. Green spaces in cities are crucial for health, well-being, and providing shade, especially during heatwaves,” she says.
In Uganda, Dr. Mugume notes that the government has invested in weather monitoring infrastructure, including the three weather radars, which are strategically spread across the country to enable UNMA to monitor weather at any part of the country.
“With this technology, we can now offer more precise and timely services, ensuring our communities respond effectively. Weather and climate forecasts range from hourly to seasonal projections. Shorter forecasts tend to be more accurate, although longer ones still fall within manageable limits. For instance, our seasonal forecast accuracy in Uganda is at 90%, aligning with National Development Plan 3. We collaborate with development partners to fine-tune these forecasts.”
For Dr. Gabrielsson, preparedness is key, especially for the 2.2 billion people worldwide relying on sanitation systems, many of whom live in rapidly urbanizing areas and unplanned settlements.
Unfortunately, these systems often lack proper management, leading to health risks. In urban settings, she says, the spread of sludge from these systems can have widespread health implications. To address this, there’s a pressing need to prioritize climate-resilient sanitation systems. Historically, the sanitation sector has been under-prioritized, resulting in insufficient funding and political attention. Without a one-size-fits-all solution due to diverse living habits, cultural considerations become paramount. A gender-responsive approach is crucial, as women are primarily responsible for WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) practices.
“It involves recognizing the unique needs of different groups, such as refugees, the elderly, disabled individuals, children, and menstruating individuals. Climate-resilient wash infrastructure requires community responsibility, government policy, and financial support. For instance, in flood-prone areas like the Amazon Basin, sanitation facilities are designed to align with local livelihoods, incorporating features like composting latrines that produce manure for farming and collecting rainwater for handwashing. This approach ensures environmental safety and sustainable practices,” she observes.
Dr. Gabrielsson emphasizes the importance of cultural acceptance in encouraging people’s dedication to upholding basic sanitation and hygiene practices, particularly in the face of flooding. “Another example I presented is a UNICEF-supported toilet in Bangladesh. It’s elevated with precast concrete rings to prevent flooding, sealed with concrete mortar for contamination prevention, and reinforced to withstand heavy rain and wind. This design was developed in close consultation with local communities, ensuring cultural acceptance and affordability. The goal is to create facilities that people actually want to use, which is why it’s crucial to integrate natural and social sciences for effective solutions.”
The World Bank has substantially supported action on climate change, including both adaptation and mitigation initiatives. Dr. Tamer says over $2.2 billion has been set aside as of today for climate-related health interventions, especially in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Significant assistance has also been given to assist tiny island states in managing the effects of climate change, particularly extreme events.
In Yemen, the World Bank has sponsored efforts to put in place electronic early warning systems for real-time health data and policy response due to outbreaks of diseases including cholera and malaria. In Madagascar, the World Bank has funded work combining climate and nutrition programming. The World Bank worked with the government of Ghana to create long-lasting vaccine delivery networks.
Four Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH) faculty have been inducted for the 2024 Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS) fellowship, a preeminent nation’s most respected scientific bodies. This is the first time MakSPH is scooping a large number of faculty fellows, which was the highest for a single institution. This prestigious honor was awarded on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Four Points by Sheraton Kampala, Uganda.
The recipients are;
⦿ Professor David Guwatudde, a Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the MakSPH where he has been teaching for over 32 years. In the last decade, Dr. Guwatudde’s research interest has been on characterising the epidemiology, evaluattion and effectiveness of appropriate interventions for prevention and control of selected non-communicable diseases (NCD) especially diabetes and hypertension.
⦿ Dr. Fredrick Edward Makumbi, an Associate Professor of Biostatistics at MakSPH in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. A seasoned public health professional in Uganda, he is also a Gates Fellow. Through his expertise in population health and the evaluation of public health interventions, Dr. Makumbi has generated significant evidence that impacts the field. He has published over 300 journal articles and leads the PMA project, which focuses on evaluating schistosomiasis and family planning initiatives in Uganda.
⦿ Dr. David Musoke, a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Disease Control and Environmental Health at MakSPH. He serves as the Chair of the Grants and Research Capacity Building Committee at MakSPH and is the President Elect of the International Federation of Environmental Health (IFEH). A graduate of Makerere University, his research interests include environmental health, malaria prevention and community health. He organized the first International Community Health Workers symposium which was held in Uganda, and is an academic editor and reviewer for several journals.
⦿ Dr. Victoria Nankabirwa, an experienced clinical researcher and Lecturer in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at MakSPH. She holds a PhD from the University of Bergen and is also a member of the WHO Immunization and Vaccine-related Implementation Research (IVIR) Advisory Committee. Her key interests include mother and child outcomes, particularly survival and the impact of immunization.
UNAS is an independent, non-profit, and non-political organization, established and founded in October 2000 to provide Uganda with credible, balanced, and evidence-driven guidance on matters of science and development. Membership is drawn from distinguished scientists and scholars who have made significant, lifelong contributions across diverse fields, including natural and social sciences, arts, and humanities.
The UNAS Fellowship remains one of the nation’s most respected scientific bodies, with over 200 members working collaboratively in interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary fields to address Uganda’s challenges through science and innovation.
Every year, Fellows of the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (FUNAS) have an opportunity to nominate potential fellows into the academy based on their merit, impact and contribution of the world of Science. A nomination stands substantive once it is seconded by another FUNAS, after which the nominees go through a rigorous selection process by a highly competent committee of scholars in the academy.
Once selected and inducted, fellows in the academy devote their time on honorific activities and service provision through arbitrating on contentious national debates such as whether to provide free social services to refugees and whether to use DDT to control Malaria. Since inception on October 20, 2000, the UNAS has distinguished itself as a premier honorific society for eminent scientists in Uganda. It leverages on the expertise and stature of its members to provide pro bono evidence-informed advice to government and Ugandans on science, technology, innovation and sustainable development.
Dr. David Serwadda, an Exemplar Scholar of Makerere University who this year received the prestigious Professor Emeritus title presented the new fellows to the UNAS convention. He described Dr. Nankabirwa as a prolific researcher, with over 80 publications in peer-reviewed journals and an impressive funding portfolio that includes a number of highly competitive research grants.
On her part, Dr. Victoria Nankabirwa said she was grateful for the recognition and pledged to uphold UNAS values.
“I am very thankful for this recognition, and as I reflect on the journey that has brought me to this point, I am reminded that this is not the result of solitary work but of shared aspirations, collaborations, and partnerships. As such, I am very thankful to my nominators and seconders, Prof. David Serwadda and Prof. Rhoda Wanyenze, as well as to my colleagues, my students, and my family, represented by my mum. To these people and to you, I extend my deepest gratitude. I pledge to uphold the academy’s values, advocate for science-driven policies, and mentor future generations. I will work as hard as I can within this FUNAS,” said Dr. Nankabirwa.
Dr. Fredrick Edward Makumbi expressed his gratitude and commitment during his recent induction as a fellow of the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (FUNAS). “I am delighted to have been nominated and accepted as a FUNAS. I am truly appreciative and acknowledge the support of all those who have helped me, from my family to my teachers and colleagues—many of whom are here today. They have supported me and brought me to this great podium. I pledge to continue working, supporting, and promoting the health and well-being of the people of Uganda and beyond through science, as well as mentoring others to ensure a sustainable generation that can uphold the health and well-being of Uganda and beyond. I am glad to be here, and thank you very much,” Dr. Makumbi stated.
Dr. David Musoke is a promising researcher and Senior Lecturer in the Department of Disease Control and Environmental Health at Makerere University’s School of Public Health. He serves as the Chair of the Grants and Research Capacity Building Committee and is the President Elect of the International Federation of Environmental Health (IFEH).
“I am really delighted and humbled to be joining this elite class of academics and scholars as a fellow of UNAS. It is an honor to join many of my mentors from over the years, including my very own father, who is also a fellow of UNAS and is here today, Prof. Miph Musoke. I wish to thank my family—my parents, wife, and children—for all their support, as well as the research teams we have worked with,” said Dr. David Musoke.
Adding that; “I also extend my gratitude to my mentors from the university, Professor David Serwadda and Professor Rhoda Wanyenze, for nominating me, along with all the others who have contributed throughout this journey, including funders, collaborators, the community, and everyone else we work with. I look forward to serving in this capacity and upholding the goals and aims of UNAS, especially in the field of Environmental Health and Community Health.”
Professor Guwatudde, a lead investigator in two national surveys assessing non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors in his country—first in 2014 and again in 2023—expressed his commitment to tackling NCDs as he was recognized by the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS).
“I would like to thank the UNAS council, the secretariat, and all members for accepting me as a member,” Prof. Guwatudde said.
“I pledge to contribute in the area of non-communicable diseases. We have conducted extensive research in this country, giving us a clear picture of the NCD burden, a reality that affects us all. I would be glad to share this insight with fellow members,” added Guwatudde.
National academies worldwide provide neutral platforms for experts across disciplines to tackle societal challenges and clarify emerging issues in science, technology, and policy. These institutions play a crucial role in preparing for and responding to global threats such as pandemics. Since its inception, the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS) has been led by four presidents: Prof. Paul Mugambi (2000-2014), Prof. Nelson Sewankambo (2014-2019), Prof. Peter Mugyenyi (2019-2022), and, since October 2022, Prof. Grace Bantebya-Kyomuhendo, a Professor of Women and Gender Studies at Makerere University—the first female head of the academy.
Prof. Bantebya extended her congratulations to the newly inducted fellows. She emphasized the responsibilities UNAS fellows carry, including upholding the academy’s constitution and contributing to its vision, mission, and objectives. “Our fellows play a critical role in advancing the academy’s goals, and their dedication is vital to our impact on science and policy,” Prof. Bantebya stated.
“Remain academically active. Please listen to that. In meaningful pursuit of academic excellence in your respective areas of expertise. Do not say that now that you have become a fellow, you will stop being academically active. We expect you to continue,” she emphasised.
She also called on the fellows to actively participate in the academy’s conventions, consensus-building efforts, and other activities. Prof. Bantebya emphasized the importance of consensus studies to the academy’s mission, urging fellows to make themselves available when called upon.
“Ensure high standards of conduct based on national and international best practices. We expect you to maintain and ensure high standards yourselves and foster good relations among members as well as with the academy, the general science community, and the public. You also need to meet all the obligations as a fellow of UNAS, whether financial or otherwise, as stipulated,” the Academy President said
A fellow may lose their membership in the academy if they act against the UNAS constitution or bring disrepute to its goals, name, or vision. Membership can also be terminated if a member is convicted by a competent court or authority of a felony or serious crime, or if they are declared bankrupt or of unsound mind.
UNAS’s mission is to foster the welfare and prosperity of the Ugandan people by generating, sharing, and utilizing robust knowledge and insights to deliver independent, merit-based scientific counsel to government and society. As part of the global scientific community, UNAS maintains strong ties with the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC), Network of Science Academies in Islamic Countries (NASIC), the U.S. National Academies, IAP, and TWAS.
Article courtesy Fogarty International Center
September/October 2024 | Volume 23 Number 5
Until recently in Uganda, most children with sickle cell disease (SCD) never celebrated their fifth birthday—only 30% lived past this milestone. This low survival rate was mainly due to inadequate health care interventions for these children, plus lack of widespread newborn screening, explains Dr. Sarah Kiguli , a professor at Makerere University College of Health Sciences. Things are different today. Over the past decade, the East African nation has instituted a policy of screening newborns while strengthening strategies to manage their health. This means more children with SCD are growing into adolescence and adulthood.
Challenges still exist, says Kiguli. For example, the community and district facilities where many Ugandan children are born cannot provide comprehensive services, including newborn screening. Another issue: the risk of SCD complications related to kidneys, lungs, heart—almost all organs—grows higher as patients grow older, yet scientific research in Uganda hasn’t caught up with the reality of these longer lives. As a result, teens and adults with SCD don’t get “the care they deserve,” says Kiguli.
“It’s very painful for us pediatricians to see our patients encounter challenges and problems when they transition to adult care.”
Renewed research focus
Despite years devoted to children’s health, Kiguli believes it’s time to prioritize studies exploring appropriate SCD management in teens and adults. “We need solutions that address all the patients’ needs, including reproductive health, as they transition out of childhood.” She’s spearheaded a multidisciplinary research training program for researchers focused on the needs of people with SCD at all ages: Enhancing Research capacity for Sickle Cell Disease and related NCDs across the Lifespan in Uganda (ENRICH).
“Among our PhDs, we don’t have anyone from pediatrics—and that’s fine,” says Kiguli. Importantly, the researchers are trained as a group to amplify the benefits of multidisciplinary collaboration. “We’ve been working in silos—pediatricians alone, physicians alone, social scientists alone—that won’t help us address the comprehensive needs of these patients.”
Methodology has also been given sufficient consideration. “We provide both individual and team mentorship from the beginning,” said Kiguli. Monthly meetings help trainees develop personal development goals and career path plans in the hope they will continue in the field. The program also provides research training to health professionals, such as medical doctors, laboratory personnel, and nurses, who are not necessarily doing degree programs, “so those who manage patients routinely might also benefit,” said Kiguli.
South-to-South unity
For the project, Makerere University has partnered with Busitema University, located in eastern Uganda, where “prevalence of the sickle cell trait is as high as 20%,” says Kiguli. (Sickle cell trait refers to when a person has inherited one mutated allele of the sickle cell gene, not two.) This local prevalence contrasts with about 13% prevalence elsewhere in the country. Studying the disease in a high burden locale is highly relevant, because results may influence policy and treatment guidelines.
Kiguli has other reasons for collaborating with Busitema University, which is less than 15 years old. “We want to build capacity at this young institution since our colleagues there have less chance of doing research than we at Makerere do.” Working and supervising trainees together will give Busitema’s faculty much-needed experience, while providing opportunities for faculty at both universities to learn from each other. Kiguli also hopes the new collaboration will advance progress made as result of the universities’ past partnerships. “Capacity must be built in a sustainable way,” says Kiguli.
“It’s important to work collaboratively and not competitively—this is just as important for Makerere University as it is for Busitema University.”
ENRICH trainees talk about their projects
Dr. Jackline Akello
Dr. Jackline Akello, PhD candidate
Dr. Jackline Akello, PhD candidate
My project is “Sickle cell disease in pregnancy: Experiences in provision and access to care and adverse pregnancy outcomes at Mbale and Kawempe Referral Hospitals.” As an obstetrician and gynecologist, I work as a lecturer at Makerere University and provide clinical care at the two national referral hospitals. I have encountered significant challenges in managing pregnant women with sickle cell disease (SCD) due to a number of healthcare navigation challenges. Additionally, the diverse cultural beliefs associated with SCD in Uganda affect access to care and ultimately outcome and quality of life for the patient.
By October, I will have started the enrolment of 161 pregnant women with confirmed SCD for my project. These participants will be followed throughout their pregnancies to track maternal and fetal complications, including stillbirths and low birth weight. Their experiences with the healthcare system will also be explored. As a Safe Motherhood champion, I have been focusing on hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, including pre-eclampsia, but this October at the Safe Motherhood Conference I will discuss the effects of SCD during pregnancy with the Ministry of Health. One of the endpoints of my study is to improve care for pregnant women who have SCD to enhance their pregnancy experience and outcomes.
Dr. George Paasi
Dr. George Paasi, PhD candidate
Dr. George Paasi, PhD candidate
My project is “The Clinical Epidemiology, Spatiotemporal Patterns and Disease Modifiers of Severe Malaria among Children with Sickle Cell Disease in Eastern Uganda.” Uganda ranks fourth among countries with high burden of SCD and is in the top 10 with respect to malaria burden. Eastern Uganda has the highest burden of both diseases. My project addresses this dual burden of SCD and malaria in eastern Uganda—I want to decipher the SCD-malaria syndemic in this region.
I’m a medical doctor, I have a master’s in public health, and I just finished a fellowship in infectious disease, epidemiology, and biostatistics. I’ve worked at Mbale Clinical Research Institute for the last 10 years. Previously, I worked on an NIH-funded trial in Africa called Realizing Effectiveness Across Continents with Hydroxyurea (REACH) as a medical officer, and now I’m embarking on this PhD training. My hope is that the findings from my study will improve the identification of patients with SCD at risk of adverse outcomes when they get malaria. I also want to identify, through spatial temporal analysis, hotspot locations that require priority interventions. I also want to gain skills as an independent researcher in SCD and make a meaningful contribution to this field.
Dr. Anita Arinda
Dr. Anita Arinda, PhD candidate
My project is “Prevalence, associated factors, course and impact of major depressive disorder in adolescents with SCD in Mulago National Referral Hospital.” We have limited data on mental health of adolescents with SCD, so that’s why my project mainly looks at depression in adolescents (ages 10 to 17).
In our setting, we are fortunate that children with SCD live past their fifth birthday thanks to improved health care, but this presents new challenges. During adolescence, patients enter a crucial stage where they’re trying to develop their identity, yet they’re also beginning to understand the implications of their condition—that having this serious health condition cuts their life short. I want to understand their experiences. How does depression in adolescents with SCD differ from depression in adolescents without SCD? We know that sickle cell disease causes inflammation, so does that contribute to their depression? How does depression affect clinical outcomes, if at all?
If we can understand the underlying mechanisms of depression in teens with SCD, then we might find new ways to manage their care (as opposed to conventional treatment with antidepressants). I’ll do my research at Mulago National Referral Hospital, which has a clinic dedicated to children and teens with sickle cell disease. The clinic provides many services, but unfortunately no specialized mental health services. One day I hope that changes, so that children with SCD and depression can get help early.
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