Health
Global Conversations: Climate Change Multiplies Health Risks, A Call to Action on Extreme Weather Effects
By Davidson Ndyabahika, Johanna Blomgren and Julius T. Mugaga
Experts have urged urgent action to mitigate the health risks of climate change. The 2023 global conversation, on Climate Change and Health highlighted the need for transformational action in every sector to protect people’s health from climate change.
Held on September 5, 2023 the virtual seminar, organized by the Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Health (CESH), a collaboration between Makerere University and the Karolinska Institutet that aims to increase capacity and spur action to advance the agenda for sustainable health drew over 230 attendees from all over the world. It placed emphasis on mitigating the effects of extreme weather, such flooding.
In its 2023 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that global terrestrial, freshwater, and ocean ecosystems have already been affected by climate change, along with the associated losses and costs. It predicts that heavy rainfall and flooding events are expected to worsen and occur more frequently in the majority of regions of Africa, Asia, North America, and Europe by 1.5°C global warming (high confidence).
The 2023 IPCC report identifies barriers that prevent people and society from implementing climate-resilient behaviors. Financial limitations, conflicts with the SDGs, inequalities, institutional, economic, and social hurdles, as well as dispersed strategies, are a few of these. The panel equally agree that if global warming exceeds 1.5 °C and the SDGs are not adequately progressed, chances for climate-resilient development would be considerably more limited.
Now, during the seminar, the panel, by consensus agreed that climate change is critical citing that such conversations on critical factors in relation to the climate and health crisis are not only timely but necessary.
Climate change impacts the social determinants of health, which include excellent health and wellbeing, by causing decreased food output, low fishing yields, flooding, and infrastructure damage, according to Daniel Helldén, a PhD student at KI Department of Global Public Health.
“The future emission scenarios are dire. What is becoming more and more clear is that climate change is a generational issue. Children born today will continue to bear the biggest burden of climate change impact,” said Helldén.
Dr. Mugume Isaac Amooti, the Director of Weather Forecasting Services at the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), emphasized the importance of considering both long-term averages and unprecedented weather events driven by climate change. These events are thought extreme only when they exceed past records. He noted for instance that in Uganda; “The widespread flooding brought on by heavy and frequent precipitation is what we are seeing in Uganda, particularly in the cities. However, we are witnessing heat waves and cold waves at different times of the year.”
Although there isn’t a clear pattern in Sweden’s precipitation, Dr. Johanna Sörensen of Lund University in Sweden said that forecasts suggest that rainfall may increase by the end of the century. Given the flooding problems that already present, this, she says is something to worry about. “Flooding is increasing not only because of climate change but also even more that we construct the cities more densely and we construct buildings and industries on lowly areas that we used not to do in the past which is of course not a good idea.”
Dr. Tamer Rabie, a lead health specialist at the World Bank Group, notes that risks are amplified by climate change, which therefore has an intensified negative impact. He points out, for instance, that in order to comprehend how climate change and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will affect health, it is critical to view climate change as a risk multiplier.
Dr. Tamer, also the architect of the World Bank’s global Health-Climate and Environment Program (H-CEP), underscored three pathways through which climate change impacts health: direct effects, indirect effects, and those mediated by ecosystems. Some of the direct pathways include issues like increased temperatures likely to lead to heat waves, heat-related illnesses, worsened non-communicable diseases, and increase in the risk of events like traumatic injuries.
According to Dr. Tamer, ecosystem-mediated risks include vector-borne diseases (like Malaria and Dengue), foodborne illnesses, and waterborne diseases (like Cholera). These risks are closely tied to how health outcomes are influenced by the ecosystem. Additionally, indirect health impacts encompass mental health due to population displacements, as well as malnutrition resulting from shifts in food production and overall food systems.
“We have done estimates in the World Bank that show that extreme weather events and climate change will lead to pushing nearly 132 million people into extreme poverty by 2030. If you look at the health impacts within those figures and the main drivers, we are seeing that nearly 44 million out of those 132 will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 if we don’t take any action today,” Dr. Tamer.
According to Dr. Tamer, the World Bank has conducted climate and health vulnerability assessments specifically looking at the cost of inaction moving into the 2030s and 2050s using information that relates to malaria, dengue, diarrhea, stunting in children, heat related illnesses, floods, among others.
“What we are seeing is that on average, countries will be losing anywhere between 1-5% of their GDP as a result of not really addressing the climate crisis, not being able to address these impacts that we are talking about, and obviously not investing enough into the health systems to be able to be more resilient,” Dr. Tamer noted during the webinar.
According to Dr. Sara Gabrielsson, an Associate Senior Lecturer in Sustainability Science at Lund University’s Centre for Sustainability Studies (LUCSUS), addressing immediate health risks involves containing flooding, which is just one aspect of climate change-related challenges like sea level rise and drought.
She highlights the connection between various deadly diseases like dengue, typhoid, trachoma, and cholera among others to this issue. During a crisis like flooding, treatment for these diseases she notes often takes a backseat due to the overwhelming health burdens that arise.
“There is death from drowning or direct injury from debris in these very storm surges, but then we also have the issue of just water sitting, waiting in water for longer periods, leading to lots of infections, urine-tract infections, vaginal infections, skin diseases, hypothermia, lots of those kinds of things, but also vector-borne diseases, and especially malaria, which is, of course, one big thing here,” Dr. Gabrielsson opines.
She adds that flooding brings problems like contaminated drinking water, leading to chronic diarrhea and malnutrition. Additionally, damaged sanitation facilities force people into open defecation, exposing them to harmful bacteria and further risk of chronic diarrhea.
“These immediate health risks are just the beginning. Moving into long-term risks, flooding severely impacts the availability of clean water for basic hygiene. As we’ve learned from COVID, hygiene is paramount for health. Insufficient handwashing and personal hygiene can breed disease. We need proper hygiene for preparing food, tending to babies, managing menstrual health, and more. Without it, there’s increased exposure to harmful bacteria, compounded by the use of inadequate sanitation systems, resulting in outbreaks of various diseases,” observed Gabrielsson.
Way forward
Dr. Sörensen, from a Swedish standpoint, proposes proactive steps to mitigate flooding. These include slowing down water flow, discouraging construction in flood-prone zones, and avoiding building in areas prone to heavy rain. She points out that in cities like Mumbai and Gothenburg, there has been a concerning trend of construction in flood-prone regions. Dr. Sörensen emphasizes the importance of adapting solutions for creating greener, more sustainable cities. “In China, they call it a sponge city. It’s like a sponge—you fill it up with water during rainfall and then use it later for various purposes. Utilizing vegetation and water storage helps retain water and slow down its flow in urban areas. Green spaces in cities are crucial for health, well-being, and providing shade, especially during heatwaves,” she says.
In Uganda, Dr. Mugume notes that the government has invested in weather monitoring infrastructure, including the three weather radars, which are strategically spread across the country to enable UNMA to monitor weather at any part of the country.
“With this technology, we can now offer more precise and timely services, ensuring our communities respond effectively. Weather and climate forecasts range from hourly to seasonal projections. Shorter forecasts tend to be more accurate, although longer ones still fall within manageable limits. For instance, our seasonal forecast accuracy in Uganda is at 90%, aligning with National Development Plan 3. We collaborate with development partners to fine-tune these forecasts.”
For Dr. Gabrielsson, preparedness is key, especially for the 2.2 billion people worldwide relying on sanitation systems, many of whom live in rapidly urbanizing areas and unplanned settlements.
Unfortunately, these systems often lack proper management, leading to health risks. In urban settings, she says, the spread of sludge from these systems can have widespread health implications. To address this, there’s a pressing need to prioritize climate-resilient sanitation systems. Historically, the sanitation sector has been under-prioritized, resulting in insufficient funding and political attention. Without a one-size-fits-all solution due to diverse living habits, cultural considerations become paramount. A gender-responsive approach is crucial, as women are primarily responsible for WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) practices.
“It involves recognizing the unique needs of different groups, such as refugees, the elderly, disabled individuals, children, and menstruating individuals. Climate-resilient wash infrastructure requires community responsibility, government policy, and financial support. For instance, in flood-prone areas like the Amazon Basin, sanitation facilities are designed to align with local livelihoods, incorporating features like composting latrines that produce manure for farming and collecting rainwater for handwashing. This approach ensures environmental safety and sustainable practices,” she observes.
Dr. Gabrielsson emphasizes the importance of cultural acceptance in encouraging people’s dedication to upholding basic sanitation and hygiene practices, particularly in the face of flooding. “Another example I presented is a UNICEF-supported toilet in Bangladesh. It’s elevated with precast concrete rings to prevent flooding, sealed with concrete mortar for contamination prevention, and reinforced to withstand heavy rain and wind. This design was developed in close consultation with local communities, ensuring cultural acceptance and affordability. The goal is to create facilities that people actually want to use, which is why it’s crucial to integrate natural and social sciences for effective solutions.”
The World Bank has substantially supported action on climate change, including both adaptation and mitigation initiatives. Dr. Tamer says over $2.2 billion has been set aside as of today for climate-related health interventions, especially in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Significant assistance has also been given to assist tiny island states in managing the effects of climate change, particularly extreme events.
In Yemen, the World Bank has sponsored efforts to put in place electronic early warning systems for real-time health data and policy response due to outbreaks of diseases including cholera and malaria. In Madagascar, the World Bank has funded work combining climate and nutrition programming. The World Bank worked with the government of Ghana to create long-lasting vaccine delivery networks.
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Health
Kampala at a Crossroads: What New Research Reveals About Mobility, Governance, and the City’s Public Health Risks
Every day in Kampala, millions of people inch through gridlock, dodge swarming boda-bodas threading through narrow gaps in traffic, inhale dangerously polluted air, and walk along streets rarely designed for pedestrians. These conditions, and more, are often dismissed as ordinary transport frustrations. Yet researchers at Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH) are examining how such everyday realities translate into public health outcomes, shaped not simply by congestion, but by governance, policy, and power. Their work forms part of a multi-country project investigating the political economy of urban mobility in three African cities.
Co-led by Dr. Aloysius Ssennyonjo, the Principal Investigator and health systems and governance researcher at MakSPH, together with Uganda’s Country Principal Investigator, Dr. Esther Bayiga-Zziwa, a road safety and injury epidemiologist, and Co-Principal Investigator Dr. Jimmy Osuret, an injury prevention researcher, the project titled The Political Economy of Urban Mobility Policies and Their Health Implications in African Cities (PUMA) applies a political economy lens to understand how political interests, institutional arrangements, and power dynamics shape mobility systems and their consequences for public health in Kampala, Kigali, and Lilongwe.
To note, political economy analysis examines how public decisions are shaped by the interplay of politics, interests, institutions, and resources, in short, who has influence, who controls what, and how money and power circulate within a system. In Kampala, a capital of nearly two million residents whose daytime population swells with commuters, this lens helps explain why some transport options attract funding and enforcement while others are tolerated, neglected, or contested. These choices are not just technical, but reflect competing interests and priorities, with consequences for safety, equity, and the everyday well-being of those moving through the city.
Now, through the NIHR-funded project, the Ugandan team is currently working with colleagues from the University of Rwanda, led by Professor David Tumusiime, and Kamuzu University of Health Sciences in Malawi, led by Dr. Dominic Nkhoma. The research partnership aims to generate evidence that can strengthen mobility governance and improve public health outcomes across the three African cities above, with advisory support for the research consortium from the University of Antwerp in Belgium and Canterbury Christ Church University in the UK.
Explaining the project’s rationale for the Politics of Urban Mobility, or PUMA, during the 2025 Universal Health Coverage Day webinar held on December 12 under the theme “Mobility, Costs, and Politics: How Urban Systems Shape Access and Progress Towards Universal Health Coverage in African Cities,” Principal Investigator Dr. Ssennyonjo said Africa is urbanising at an unprecedented pace. Projections show that by 2050, nearly 60% of the continent’s population will live in cities, a shift that is intensifying transport pressures and increasingly turning everyday mobility into a public health risk.
“Rapid urbanisation has created multiple challenges: transport systems are under strain, risks and vulnerabilities are rising, and opportunities for healthy behaviours such as walking are often limited. Access to livelihoods is also affected, with broad implications for health,” Ssennyonjo noted, adding: “Crucially, these issues are shaped by political and governance dynamics, yet few initiatives explicitly address them. This gap motivated our focus on the politics and governance of urban mobility.”
He mentioned that health outcomes are shaped by social, economic, and environmental factors, with transport costs, risks, and stress often posing greater barriers than medical fees alone to achieving affordable health for all. He noted that the PUMA project brings together multidisciplinary teams to study how governance and political dynamics shape urban mobility, public health, and development, a perspective reflected in Prof. Julius Kiiza’s observation that effective urban development relies on coordinated action by diverse stakeholders across sectors to improve health outcomes, though emphasising the primacy of politics.
“Uganda and Singapore had comparable levels of underdevelopment in the 1960s. Under Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore embarked on a deliberate nation-building project. Today, it is among the smartest cities globally, outperforming many Western cities in clean government, mobility, and liveability. Why are we lagging behind? The answer, I argue, lies largely in the nature of our politics,” Prof. Julius Kiiza cogently argued.
He intimated that the result has been cities that are “unreliable, unsafe, unsmart, and chaotic,” noting that claims of inclusive urban development often ring hollow. “I have argued, and repeat here, that boda bodas as a symbol of inclusivity represent a false model of inclusion. We must interrogate this and invest in better urban transport systems and wider, well-planned highways,” he affirmed.
Prof. Kiiza urged policymakers and practitioners to move beyond piecemeal technical fixes and instead treat urban mobility as a governance challenge requiring coordinated, cross-sector action. He stressed the importance of aligning transport planning with public health, housing, employment, and skills development, arguing that safer, more liveable cities depend on institutions that work together and are accountable to the public. Such reforms, he noted, demand sustained political commitment and inclusive dialogue across government, academia, civil society, and the private sector, precisely the terrain the PUMA project is engaging, by convening stakeholders and shaping a shared research agenda around Uganda and the continent’s urban mobility challenge.
Indeed, on November 21, 2025, the Ugandan team convened a national stakeholder workshop in Kampala, bringing together a wide range of stakeholders. Opening the workshop, Assoc. Prof. Suzanne Kiwanuka, Head of the Department of Health Policy, Planning and Management (HPPM) at MakSPH, commended the team for highlighting what she described as a long-underexplored dimension of Uganda’s urban health landscape: mobility and its governance.
Reflecting on her own experience, she noted how boda-bodas have become increasingly indispensable for millions seeking quick, flexible transport, but also carry complex health, safety, and economic implications that demand multisectoral attention, calling for a balanced, evidence-driven dialogue that recognises their value while also addressing the infrastructural and policy gaps that shape mobility systems in Uganda’s rapidly growing cities.
“I sometimes use boda-bodas,” Assoc. Prof. Suzanne Kiwanuka said. “They are necessary when you need to move quickly during heavy traffic. Yet we all know how unsafe they can be. This PUMA initiative is timely to generate evidence not only on the politics of urban mobility and its health implications, but also its economic consequences.”
Notably, road traffic crashes remain one of Uganda’s most urgent public health threats today. The recent Uganda Police Force Annual Crime Report 2024 recorded 5,144 road deaths, a seven per cent rise from 2023, with motorcyclists accounting for nearly half of all fatalities. In Kampala, pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcycle riders constitute 94 per cent of all fatal crashes, according to the Kampala Capital City Authority. Thousands more suffer life-altering injuries each year.
Still, evidence from MakSPH, through its Centre for Trauma, Injury and Disability Prevention (C-TRIAD) and the Johns Hopkins International Injury Research Unit (JH-IIRU) under the Bloomberg Philanthropies Initiative for Global Road Safety (BIGRS), shows that the design and use of city roads are worsening the risk environment. Between 2021 and 2023, the team conducted more than one million roadside observations across Kampala, finding that while only five per cent of vehicles are officially recorded as speeding, those that do travel at an average of 57 km/h, well above safe limits for dense urban corridors, making city roads increasingly unsafe.
The World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, cited in the report, recommend speed limits of 30 km/h on community roads and in urban areas where pedestrians, cyclists, and other vulnerable road users share space with motorised traffic, and 50 km/h on major urban roads. Yet the findings show that six in ten vehicles on community roads exceed these limits, heightening risks for those least protected and underscoring the need for lower-speed zones, traffic-calming measures such as speed humps and raised crossings, and consistent enforcement of traffic regulations.
For the PUMA team in Uganda, the writing on the wall shows that these rising injuries coincide with worsening congestion and rapid urbanisation, yet city mobility policies within Kampala remain heavily oriented toward road expansion and vehicular flow, with limited attention to safety, health protection, or non-motorised transport. This policy imbalance, then, explains why daily commuting remains hazardous and why progress on safer streets has been slow.
The study uses a three-tiered approach that combines policy analysis, regional evidence, and local experiences to examine how mobility decisions are made in Kampala, Kigali, and Lilongwe, who holds authority, and how these processes affect public health and equity. This is strengthened by structured co-creation workshops with practitioners, policymakers, and community actors, which reveal how governance functions in practice, often diverging from what is written on paper.
In parallel, the research team is conducting a continent-wide review of academic and grey literature to map regional trends, gaps, and the broader forces shaping African mobility systems. Together, these streams enable the researchers to compare cities, identify shared challenges, and build a grounded analytical framework for improving mobility governance across Africa.
In Kampala, preliminary findings by the MakSPH PUMA research team show a city governed by many mobility policies but marked by weak mobility governance. The team shared that Kampala operates under a dense mix of frameworks, from the National Integrated Transport Master Plan and National Urban Policy to road safety, climate, and KCCA development plans. While these documents acknowledge congestion, urbanisation, and road injury risks, they also reveal overlapping mandates, blurred institutional roles, and limited coordination authority.
Key government Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) actors include the Ministry of Works and Transport, KCCA, the Ministry of Lands, the Office of the Prime Minister, and the Ministry of Finance, with the Ministry of Health conspicuously absent despite clear health implications. Policy attention, according to the early findings, remains heavily skewed toward road transport, leaving non-motorised mobility and major health pathways, noise exposure, psychosocial stress, community severance, heat, and mobility independence largely unaddressed.
Governance realities are further shaped by political processes, including electoral cycles, informal negotiations with transport unions, selective regulation of boda-bodas, and heavy reliance on development partners that often influence what is prioritised and implemented. Together, these dynamics help explain stalled master plans, inconsistent enforcement, and resistance to progressive interventions. While the PUMA research remains at a preliminary stage currently, the emerging findings underscore the need for an integrated, multisectoral mobility agenda that places health at the centre of Kampala’s transport policy and practice.
Livelihood activities such as farming, livestock keeping, construction, and night-time work significantly increase malaria risk in Uganda, according to new research by Dr Kevin Deane, a development economist at The Open University, UK, and Dr Edwinah Atusingwize and Dr David Musoke, a Research Associate and Associate Professor of Environmental Health at Makerere University School of Public Health, respectively.
The study, Livelihoods as a key social determinant of malaria: Qualitative evidence from Uganda, published on December 2, 2025, in the journal Global Public Health, examines how everyday economic activities shape exposure to malaria, often undermining conventional prevention measures such as insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying. The findings are based on qualitative fieldwork conducted in June 2024 in Busiro County, Wakiso District, a peri-urban area with persistently high malaria transmission in Uganda.
Using a qualitative design, the researchers conducted 14 key informant interviews, 10 focus group discussions, and 11 in-depth interviews with households recently affected by malaria, engaging 100 participants from communities, health services, local government, and civil society across Kajjansi, Kasanje, and Katabi Town Councils, as well as Bussi Sub-County, in Busiro South. Their analysis, guided by the Dahlgren–Whitehead social determinants of health model, enabled the researchers to situate malaria risk within the broader social, economic, and environmental conditions shaping how people live and work.
In their findings, participants linked malaria exposure to agricultural practices, among which is maize cultivation near homes, which was associated with increased mosquito density during the rainy season. “One of the most common crops cultivated in Uganda, which many rely on as staple foods, creates environments in which mosquitoes are attracted to and thrive, often in settings where maize is grown near homes in rural areas and urban areas. This increases mosquito density around homes and contributes to increased outdoor biting and the number of mosquitoes entering houses,” the study argues.
Its authors say this poses a difficult policy challenge because maize is central to household food security, leaving few practical options for reducing exposure. They argue that proposals to keep maize away from homes are often unrealistic for families with limited land or those farming in urban areas, while targeted control during flowering periods may have limited impact given mosquitoes’ ability to travel beyond cultivation sites.
Beyond crop farming, the study reports that livestock rearing, especially zero-grazing cattle kept close to houses, attracts mosquitoes into household compounds. Other livelihood activities, including construction and brick-making, created stagnant water-filled pits that served as breeding sites, while night-time livelihoods, such as street vending, guarding, fishing, bar work, and brick burning, among others, prolonged outdoor exposure during peak mosquito biting hours. Gender further shaped risk, with women’s livelihoods and caregiving responsibilities frequently exposing young children alongside them.
“The evidence we present illustrates the unintended health consequences of development strategies intended to promote key livelihood activities, food security, and poverty reduction. There are no straightforward solutions given the complexity of these relationships and the importance of these livelihoods for many households,” the authors assert.
They conclude that malaria elimination efforts will fall short unless livelihoods and development activities are explicitly integrated into malaria prevention strategies, calling for stronger alignment between public health, agriculture, urban development, and economic policy.
Please see below for the study:
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