At a press conference held today Tuesday 16th June 2020, a research team led by Makerere University presented a ‘Mathematical Model of COVID-19 dynamics in Uganda: Using a locally parameterized system to enhance intervention policies’. The aim of the research from which the model is developed was to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Uganda and use the results to provide comprehensive forecast of the disease’ trends. The model endeavours to provide appropriate evidence-based policy support to government on the timing and nature of intervention measures.
The research team that worked on the study is led by Prof. Joseph Y.T. Mugisha, a Professor of Biomathematics (Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences). Professor Mugisha is also the Principal of the College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University. Other members of the team are: Dr. Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba (Makerere University), Dr. Joseph Ssebuliba (Makerere University) Dr. Amos Ssematimba (Gulu University), and Dr. Cliff Richard Kikawa (Kabale University).
The Vice Chancellor – Makerere University, Professor Barnabas Nawangwe and the Deputy Vice Chancellor –Academic Affairs, Associate Professor Umar Kakumba attended the press conference.
In his remarks, Professor Nawangwe welcomed the press to Makerere University thanking them for informing the public about the research and innovations developed by staff and students of Makerere University. He said ‘as we all are aware, COVID-I9 is a big global challenge and Makerere as a lead research institution is working to provide solutions to the pandemic at the national, regional and global levels with our partners’. He reiterated his appreciation of the Government of Uganda for providing funds through the Makerere Research and Innovation Fund that enabled the team to undertake the study presented.
Study Conclusion
The findings of this study show that the immediately implemented measures by the Government of Uganda averted thousands of cases that would have overstretched the health system within a couple of months. Without significantly altering the current situation, measures on partial lockdowns and use of masks are insufficient to stop COVID-19 and as such the disease will remain endemic in the population. In all the assessed scenarios the disease would be wiped out in the case where there are no infected arrivals beyond the first 58 days and in this case the disease would be wiped out within 200 days.
With the worrying situation of increased reported cases in our neighbouring countries, the impact of Uganda’s interventions would be greatly affected as results show that doubling the imported cases would almost triple both the maximum number of hospitalized individuals and the number of undetected cases.
Screening of truck drivers faces a challenge of reagent limitation, imperfect test accuracy, arrival of asymptomatic and latently infected individuals that may pass as false negatives during screening as well as the porosity of some of the national borders. Thus, adoption of alternative less-risky means of essential cargo delivery (e.g., by rail and ship services) combined with quarantining of all entrants for a duration not shorter than the incubation period should be enforced.
Amidst challenges of social-economic impact of COVID-19, agitation of lifting lockdown may downplay the impact of intervention measures and the study findings highlight the importance of optimal timing and magnitude of lockdown easing. Effectively phased-out ease of lockdown needs to be well studied and executed to avoid the possibility of a second wave.
Study Recommendations
1. It is not advisable to eased lockdown by releasing 50% of susceptible population for the Ugandan situation with current 3200 hospital beds and not all are of ICU-like capacity, because within 100 days the COVID-19 related hospitalization demand would have already overwhelmed the current resources.
2. Since the consequences of hospital acquired infections go beyond merely increasing the number of cases, their mitigation should be given high priority.
3. Lifted to a 75% level, the yet-to-be detected cases in the community have potential to start a second and more disastrous epidemic wave. However, with enhanced surveillance and contact tracing, gradual easing by releasing smaller percentages of susceptible individuals from lockdown can still be safely executed sooner than the optimum 210 days for up to 75% susceptible level.
4. The issue of handling truck drivers mingling at service and testing centres at border crossings should be reinforced – preferably, government should set up treatment and isolation facilities as close as possible to the testing border points not to overwhelmed the existing regional facilities, optimize scarce handling resources and also to minimize stigma and community discontent. This would in addition reduce the time frontline workers are exposed to the risk of infection amidst lack of well-equipped ambulances
5. Since latently infected individuals can only be detected after latent period, effort should be put on obtaining information on where the drivers have been few days before arrival to understand the risk of admitting persons from high risk regions of neighbouring countries. The risk of imported cases is not only posed by those who test positive but also due to false negatives and latently infected individuals.
The African Research Universities Alliance (ARUA), with support from the Mastercard Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York, is launching this Early-Career Research Fellowship program. The initiative will fund up to forty-two (42) early-career researchers to conduct globally competitive research at the host and affiliated institutions of ARUA’s thirteen (13) Centres of Excellence (CoEs).
Each fellowship will last six months, between July 2025 and June 2026. A maximum of four fellows will be assigned to each CoE, with all positions filled by December 2025. At least 70% of the fellowships are reserved for female candidates, and applicants must be no older than 35 years at the time of application.
The program aims to enhance the capacity of early-career researchers at African universities by providing them with time away from teaching duties at their home institutions to collaborate with highly experienced and distinguished researchers at ARUA Centres of Excellence (CoEs). Each CoE is expected to host research fellows from countries other than its own.
Selection Process
The selection of successful candidates will be conducted by the Director of the relevant ARUA Centre of Excellence to which the candidate applies, in consultation with the host institution’s Deputy Vice-Chancellor.
ARUA will continue to accept applications for the 42 positions until they are all filled, with a deadline of December 2025. However, candidates who apply before May 15, 2025, will be considered for the first batch of positions. Successful candidates from this batch will be notified by June 1, 2025, and are expected to start their fellowships on July 1, 2025.
Fellowship selection is highly competitive and based, in the first instance, on excellence in the context of the applicant’s academic standing, research experience, productivity, and output and, secondly, on the relevance and fit of research experience and proposed focus to the host CoE’s research focus and objectives.
Due to the frequent use of antibiotics for prophylaxis and treatment of poultry by Ugandan farmers, antibiotic resistance is on the rise. This has resulted in an outbreak of poultry and human diseases in addition to drug residues in chicken meat being consumed by the majority of Ugandans. Thus, “If you are eating chicken daily then you could be at a high risk.” These residues have spilled into the environment and also contaminated the food for the indigenous free-range chicken which people thought were safer to eat. Interestingly, some consumers think cooking chicken can reduce antibiotic residue levels, but it does not completely remove them. Boiling or frying chicken can cause antibiotic residues to migrate into the cooking liquid, but they don’t guarantee full degradation or elimination.
Drugged chicken.What is being consumed.
Looking at the situation at hand, I went back to our indigenous knowledge systems in a quest to formulate an organic poultry feed since natural solutions have proven safer, effective, and sustainable. But remember, to break the cycle or solve any problem, we have to start from the roots and this is by improving the diet for our poultry and ruling out the use of conventional antibiotics. Thus, I went ahead to investigate natural bacteriocins and phytobiotics which I integrated into a special feed for chicken. In addition to the feed is a probiotic solution for gut health.
Phyto-Nutra pellets and their packaging.
Special thanks to the Government of Uganda through the Makerere University Research and Innovations Fund (Mak-RIF) for funding this research to prototypes.
Phyto-Nutra pellets and booster in their packaging.
Soon we will commence bulk processing and take the feed to the market but before that, we will scientifically validate the feed through efficiency testing in comparison with imported feeds and Uganda-produced feeds. Furthermore, we will produce different feeds to meet the needs of the different types of chicken (broilers, layers, dual-purpose). This will put our product in a better place on the market and also be able to convince our customers with concrete scientific evidence. In addition, we want to change the mindsets of the majority of Ugandans, especially poultry farmers, and let them understand that Organic poultry farming is the best as it results in quality meat, quality eggs, quality fertilizer, and more returns/ profits.
Dr. Alice Nabatanzi.
In conclusion, we need to embrace our indigenous systems and remember that once we were healthier without cancer, strange disease conditions, and rampant fertility issues. This is majorly because we consumed clean food as opposed to now where our food is highly contaminated with drug residues.
Dr. Alice Nabatanzi is a Senior Lecturer in the College of Natural Sciences (CoNAS), Makerere University
Working with potential future employers of PhD students in Kenya and Uganda, Advancing Sustainable Agricultural Value Chains through Strengthening Trans-disciplinary Skills and Cooperation in East African Doctoral Education (ADVALUE) Project aims to develop curricula that best prepare academic specialists in agricultural sciences for their careers.
Overview
The lack of skills-oriented training significantly undermines the relevance of doctoral graduates in today’s rapidly evolving job market, particularly within industries such as agriculture, where practical expertise and adaptability are essential. While doctoral programmes traditionally emphasize research and theoretical knowledge, they often fail to equip graduates with the hands-on, industry-specific skills needed to address real-world challenges. In agricultural value chains, for instance, the ability to apply advanced research to optimize production, supply chain management, sustainability practices, and technological advancements is crucial. Without a strong foundation in these practical areas, doctoral graduates may struggle to effectively contribute to innovation and efficiency in agricultural systems. From improving crop yields through data analysis to enhancing logistics and distribution methods, agricultural value chains require professionals who can seamlessly integrate research with practical application.
Prof. John Tabuti, ADVALUE Project Coordinator in Uganda addressing participants during the conference.
What the ADVALUE Project targets to address
Co-funded by the European Union, the ADVALUE Project—Advancing Sustainable Agricultural Value Chains through Strengthening Trans-disciplinary Skills and Cooperation in East African Doctoral Education—seeks to modernize doctoral education in agricultural and agro-environmental sciences at universities in Uganda and Kenya. This initiative aims to enhance trans-disciplinary skills to promote the development of sustainable agricultural value chains, addressing pressing challenges such as food insecurity, unemployment, and climate change.
Project partners include; Nuertingen-Geislingen University, Germany (NGU); German Institute for Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture (DITSL); Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZU); Swedish University of Agricultural Science (SLU); Makerere University, Uganda; Uganda Christian University (UCU); University of Nairobi, Kenya (UoN); Pwani University Kenya (PU); Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture, Uganda (RUFORUM). Associated Partners: European Alliance in Agricultural Knowledge for Development, Belgium (AGRINATURA); National Agricultural Research Organization, Uganda (NARO); National Council of Higher Education, Uganda (NCHE); Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation (KALRO); Ministry of Education Science and Technology Kenya (MoEST). The project PI is Prof. Dr. Heinrich Schüle. In Uganda, the project is coordinated by Prof. John Tabuti.
Prof. John Tabuti, ADVALUE Project Coordinator in Uganda addressing participants during the conference.
Project objectives
Develop innovative courses on trans-disciplinary research methodologies and value chain analysis within doctoral programmes.
Strengthen collaboration with key stakeholders to ensure research is demand-driven and fosters innovation.
Enhance the expertise of both academic staff and doctoral students.
Improve quality assurance frameworks and development processes in doctoral education.
To achieve these goals, ADVALUE is developing four modules for PhD students that will be integrated into the curricula of the partner universities in Kenya and Uganda, taking into account the experiences and expectations of local stakeholders and potential future employers. The modules will include topics on scientific work, trans-disciplinary research, rangeland management, and agricultural value chains. The collaboration and exchange between the universities and representatives from the working environment, government organisations and international partners aims to strengthen the career prospects of postgraduate students in East Africa and promote their expertise with regard to the local requirements for achieving the SDGs.
The Deputy Principal of CAES, Prof. Yazidhi Bamutaze offered valuable insights into the challenges hindering doctoral training.
The ADVALUE interim conference
The project team held an interim conference at Makerere University on 17th-19th March 2025 to evaluate the state of PhD education in agriculture, incorporating diverse insights from both European and East African perspectives. The conference brought together academic staff, students, and leaders from partner institutions, associated organizations, and key stakeholders in the Agricultural sector.
The conference aimed to highlight the progress and findings of the project, offering a platform for discussing PhD research on agricultural value chains within higher education institutions (HEIs). A key focus was on trans-disciplinary approaches, as well as fostering dialogue on quality criteria for PhD programs. Additionally, the event served as a formal meeting for the project’s Steering Committee and provided an opportunity for partners to refine their assessments of doctoral education in line with established quality standards and institutional contexts.
Some of the participants at the workshop.
Presentation by Mr. Joseph Nkandu on the Agricultural Value Chains in E.A
In his address on the sustainability of agricultural value chains in East Africa, Mr. Joseph Nkandu, Executive Director of NUCAFE (Uganda’s national umbrella organization for coffee farmers), emphasized the vital role that higher education plays in strengthening and advancing agricultural value chains. He stressed the importance of aligning education with the region’s broader development goals to ensure that future generations of agricultural professionals are equipped with the necessary skills for sustainable growth. “Education must become more practical and closely integrated with the region’s development objectives,” he noted. He praised the initiative, noting that the project would greatly enhance doctoral training at partner institutions, empowering students with advanced knowledge and skills to support and sustain agricultural value chains across East Africa. “The sustainability of Africa’s value chains is essential if we are to meet the demands of the growing population,” he added.
Mr. Joseph Nkandu, Executive Director of NUCAFE emphasized the vital role that higher education plays in strengthening and advancing agricultural value chains.
Uganda’s agricultural value chains are a cornerstone of its economy. However, several challenges threaten their sustainability, including climate change, which affects crop yields and water availability; inadequate infrastructure, which hinders market access; limited access to finance for smallholder farmers; land degradation; and insufficient technology adoption. Moreover, pest outbreaks and post-harvest losses further undermine the efficiency and profitability of agricultural systems. Tackling these challenges is essential to improving the sustainability and resilience of Uganda’s agricultural sector.
Mr. Joseph Nkandu addressing participants on agricultural value chains in East Africa.
Remarks from NCHE
In her remarks, Prof. Mary Okwakol, the Executive Director of the National Council for Higher Education, emphasized the critical role of doctoral training in driving societal progress. She explained that advanced research and innovation resulting from doctoral programmes not only contribute to academic advancement but also pave the way for ground-breaking discoveries. “These discoveries, in turn, play a pivotal role in shaping and transforming nation-states by addressing pressing challenges, fostering economic growth, and improving the quality of life for communities.” Prof. Okwakol called for continued investment in doctoral education to harness its potential for national development and global competitiveness.
The representative of the Executive Director of the National Council for Higher Education, Prof. Mary Okwakol addressing participants. She emphasized the critical role of doctoral training in driving societal productivity.
Highlighting the challenges related to Doctoral training, the Deputy Principal of CAES, Prof. Yazidhi Bamutaze, noted that the project was timely and would greatly strengthen the research capabilities of doctoral students, ensuring that their skills are more aligned with current academic and industry needs, ultimately improving the overall relevance and impact of their research outputs. “As Makerere University strives to become a research-intensive institution, the importance of collaboration cannot be overstated. This project will make a substantial contribution to this goal.”
A participant sharing his views on the project.
Engagement with smallholder farmer in Matugga
During the conference, the project team had the opportunity to visit the farm of Mr. Sam Mpiira, a dedicated smallholder farmer located in Matugga, within Nansana Municipality. The visit allowed the team to gain first-hand insight into Mr. Mpiira’s farming practices, observe the challenges he faces, and better understand the impact of various agricultural initiatives in the region. This experience was an important part of the conference, as it provided a real-world context to the discussions on smallholder farming and rural development.
Participants following the proceedings of the workshop.
Key Issues Arising from the Workshop
Overemphasis on theoretical science: While science is extensively studied, its practical application remains problematic.
Outdated supervision: Many PhD supervisors are not up-to-date with current research trends. There is a need for educational frameworks that align with the latest development agendas.
Technician mentality among graduates: A significant number of PhD graduates tend to think like technicians rather than innovators. Many struggle to apply the knowledge they’ve acquired and lack the ability to think creatively.
Lack of innovation: There is a notable absence of innovation among doctoral graduates, which hinders progress.
Evolving skillsets in value chains: There is an urgent need to address the changing skillsets required across different value chains.
Unrealistic PhD programme durations: The prescribed durations for PhD programmes are often unrealistic and fail to reflect the complexity of the research process.
Competing priorities: The multiple demands on students’ time hinder their ability to complete doctoral studies in time.
Financial barriers: Limited funding continues to undermine the success and sustainability of doctoral training programmes.
Lack of student commitment: Some doctoral students exhibit a lack of commitment and dedication to their studies, impacting their success.
Negative student attitudes: Students often display an underestimation of the role and guidance of their supervisors, which affects their academic progress.
Inadequate research facilities: Limited access to essential research facilities hampers the quality of doctoral research.
Weak analytical skills: Many doctoral students lack the necessary analytical skills to perform at the required level of their academic discipline.
Gender-based challenges: Gender roles negatively impact the performance and progression of female doctoral students, limiting their academic potential.
Supervisory workload: Excessive workload on supervisors affects the quality and effectiveness of their mentorship.
Need for relearning in value chains: Achieving sustainability in value chains demands continuous relearning and adaptation.
A participant from the University of Nairobi sharing ideas at the conference.
Recommendations
Dedicated study leave: Doctoral students should be granted leave from other responsibilities to focus fully on their research.
Creating research spaces: Institutions must create dedicated, conducive workspaces for doctoral students to foster collaboration and focus.
Increase funding opportunities: More scholarships and financial support should be made available to PhD students to ease financial barriers.
Research-oriented supervision: Supervisors must establish and maintain active research agendas to ensure they remain relevant and effective in guiding students.
Strengthen institutional collaboration: Encouraging greater collaboration between Higher Education Institutions can foster exchange of ideas and resources to enhance doctoral research outcomes.
Photos from conference activities
In the course of the conference, the project team visited the farm of Mr. Sam Mpiira, a smallholder farmer in Matugga, Nansana Municipality.The Project team interacts with Mr Sam Mpiira at his farm in Matugga.The Project team interacts with Mr Sam Mpiira at his farm in Matugga.The Project team after touring Mr. Mpiira’s farm in Matugga.The project team in group discussions on the different work packages.The project team in group discussions on the different work packages.