At a press conference held today Tuesday 16th June 2020, a research team led by Makerere University presented a ‘Mathematical Model of COVID-19 dynamics in Uganda: Using a locally parameterized system to enhance intervention policies’. The aim of the research from which the model is developed was to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Uganda and use the results to provide comprehensive forecast of the disease’ trends. The model endeavours to provide appropriate evidence-based policy support to government on the timing and nature of intervention measures.
The research team that worked on the study is led by Prof. Joseph Y.T. Mugisha, a Professor of Biomathematics (Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences). Professor Mugisha is also the Principal of the College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University. Other members of the team are: Dr. Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba (Makerere University), Dr. Joseph Ssebuliba (Makerere University) Dr. Amos Ssematimba (Gulu University), and Dr. Cliff Richard Kikawa (Kabale University).
The Vice Chancellor – Makerere University, Professor Barnabas Nawangwe and the Deputy Vice Chancellor –Academic Affairs, Associate Professor Umar Kakumba attended the press conference.
In his remarks, Professor Nawangwe welcomed the press to Makerere University thanking them for informing the public about the research and innovations developed by staff and students of Makerere University. He said ‘as we all are aware, COVID-I9 is a big global challenge and Makerere as a lead research institution is working to provide solutions to the pandemic at the national, regional and global levels with our partners’. He reiterated his appreciation of the Government of Uganda for providing funds through the Makerere Research and Innovation Fund that enabled the team to undertake the study presented.
Study Conclusion
The findings of this study show that the immediately implemented measures by the Government of Uganda averted thousands of cases that would have overstretched the health system within a couple of months. Without significantly altering the current situation, measures on partial lockdowns and use of masks are insufficient to stop COVID-19 and as such the disease will remain endemic in the population. In all the assessed scenarios the disease would be wiped out in the case where there are no infected arrivals beyond the first 58 days and in this case the disease would be wiped out within 200 days.
With the worrying situation of increased reported cases in our neighbouring countries, the impact of Uganda’s interventions would be greatly affected as results show that doubling the imported cases would almost triple both the maximum number of hospitalized individuals and the number of undetected cases.
Screening of truck drivers faces a challenge of reagent limitation, imperfect test accuracy, arrival of asymptomatic and latently infected individuals that may pass as false negatives during screening as well as the porosity of some of the national borders. Thus, adoption of alternative less-risky means of essential cargo delivery (e.g., by rail and ship services) combined with quarantining of all entrants for a duration not shorter than the incubation period should be enforced.
Amidst challenges of social-economic impact of COVID-19, agitation of lifting lockdown may downplay the impact of intervention measures and the study findings highlight the importance of optimal timing and magnitude of lockdown easing. Effectively phased-out ease of lockdown needs to be well studied and executed to avoid the possibility of a second wave.
Study Recommendations
1. It is not advisable to eased lockdown by releasing 50% of susceptible population for the Ugandan situation with current 3200 hospital beds and not all are of ICU-like capacity, because within 100 days the COVID-19 related hospitalization demand would have already overwhelmed the current resources.
2. Since the consequences of hospital acquired infections go beyond merely increasing the number of cases, their mitigation should be given high priority.
3. Lifted to a 75% level, the yet-to-be detected cases in the community have potential to start a second and more disastrous epidemic wave. However, with enhanced surveillance and contact tracing, gradual easing by releasing smaller percentages of susceptible individuals from lockdown can still be safely executed sooner than the optimum 210 days for up to 75% susceptible level.
4. The issue of handling truck drivers mingling at service and testing centres at border crossings should be reinforced – preferably, government should set up treatment and isolation facilities as close as possible to the testing border points not to overwhelmed the existing regional facilities, optimize scarce handling resources and also to minimize stigma and community discontent. This would in addition reduce the time frontline workers are exposed to the risk of infection amidst lack of well-equipped ambulances
5. Since latently infected individuals can only be detected after latent period, effort should be put on obtaining information on where the drivers have been few days before arrival to understand the risk of admitting persons from high risk regions of neighbouring countries. The risk of imported cases is not only posed by those who test positive but also due to false negatives and latently infected individuals.
Welcome to this comprehensive reflection on the remarkable milestones achieved by the Makerere UniversityResearch and Innovations Fund (Mak-RIF) throughout the second half of the 2024/2025 financial year. This dynamic period was marked by various achievements, strategic collaborations, and a steadfast commitment to advancing knowledge for national development. From capacity-building initiatives such as equipping PhD students with vital skills in crafting policy and issue briefs to supporting several project dissemination activities, Mak-RIF further demonstrated its dedication to fostering panoramic and impactful research.
The pinnacle of the period was the vibrant Research and Innovations Week, officiated by His Excellency, President Yoweri K. Museveni. During this landmark event, our researchers showcased the tangible impact of Government investment in research through Mak-RIF, and Makerere’s innovative strides and research excellence.
Beyond this event, the period saw meaningful benchmarking visits from the Ministry of Public Service and Lira University, deepening inter-institutional collaboration in research management and knowledge translation. We were also privileged to host Prof. Christine Suniti Bhat from Ohio University, exploring partnerships in mental health, psychosocial support, and capacity building.
In the second half of the financial year, Mak-RIF also launched its 6th round of grants award and inducted the RIF6 grantees, marking yet another chapter of impactful research ahead.
I extend my heartfelt appreciation to the Government of Uganda and the University Management for their support towards Mak-RIF. I further appreciate researchers, the Mak-RIF Grants Management Committee and the Secretariat whose hard work and dedication continue to elevate Uganda’s research and innovation ecosystem. Together, we continue to position Makerere University as a beacon of research-led national development.
Prof. Fred Masagazi-Masaazi Chairperson, Mak-RIF Grants Management Committee (GMC)
A team of scientists under the regional research initiative “Building Capacity for Innovation and Advancement of Climate Smart Agriculture in East and Southern Africa” (CICSA-E&SA) visited Mr. Mugisha Jonan, an urban farmer and environmentalist in Sentema Wakiso District, whose adoption of innovative practices is redefining the feasibility of farming in densely populated urban settings.
Mr. Mugisa, a farmer and environmentalist explains how he started his farm and took on the use of the innovation.
Through the Nutrient Recycling Innovation, Mr. Mugisha has not only resolved the persistent issue of odor from his dairy farm, but is also unlocking more profitable outcomes by embracing climate-smart agricultural techniques. Central to his approach is the use of VTC Technology, a system designed to recover nutrients from diverse waste streams, including farm and market waste, and return them to their original sources. This transformative method was introduced to him by Dr. Herbert Mukiibi, a renowned scientist from the College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity at Makerere University.
The Scientists inspect the innovation where wastes are dumped and will eventually turn into manure.
Based on the demonstration on the farm, the innovative practice will help in reshaping urban agriculture by enhancing sustainable food production while simultaneously addressing critical environmental challenges such as waste management and odor control. Mr. Mugisha’s work stands as a compelling example of how local science-driven solutions can empower urban farmers and contribute to greener, more resilient cities.
Prof. Asaete, Dr. Nampanzira, Dr. Herbet Mukiibi were conducted around the vegetable garden where the manure is applied.
Dr. Dorothy Nampanzira Kalule led a team that included Dr. Herbert Mukiibi, the innovator who collaborated directly with Mr. Mugisha to implement the nutrient recycling innovation. Also part of the team was Prof. Josephine Esaete from the College of Education and External Studies, part of the members of the bigger project research team that includes Prof. Robert Stephen Tabuti and Prof. Vincent Muwanika, both from the College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES) at Makerere University.
“Mr. Mugisha’s work exemplifies the kind of innovation we aim to capture, document and validate as solutions that are proven to work, locally driven, environmentally sound, and socially inclusive,” said Dr. Nampanzira, following a tour of the project site nestled within a densely populated urban residential area.
Dr. Nampanzira said the reason for the visit to the farmer was because through the project, scientists were looking out for farmers doing unique things that actually give them good results which are not known to the scientists. She said the purpose was to validate such practices and have them promoted.
A vegetable garden with a high yield.
The project, Building Capacity for Innovation and Advancement of Climate-Smart Agriculture in East and Southern Africa (CICSA-E&SA), continues to engage with farmers who have adopted some climate-smart agricultural practices by identifying and supporting solutions that work for farmers on the ground. Through hands-on engagement and collaboration, the initiative focuses on practical innovations that address real challenges, ensuring that climate-smart agriculture is not only sustainable, but also accessible and effective for local communities.
While describing the innovation demonstrated by Mr. Mugisha, Dr. Herbert Mukiibi explained that the Nutrient Recycling Technology is designed to recover nutrients from various waste streams such as domestic, farm, hospital, schools or market waste and return them to their original source. If the nutrients came from the garden, the ultimate goal is to return them to the garden, Dr. Mukiibi noted. He said that most systems release nutrients through waste, which wastes are often mistreated because people don’t realize they are valuable resources. He said through such interventions, they were coming in to tap on these wastes and return them to the garden in a ready form that can be used by the crops for better yields without necessarily using inorganic forms of fertilizers.
Dr. Mukiibi emphasized that this technology not only promotes sustainable agriculture but also transforms public perception of waste, from a nuisance into a valuable resource thereby encouraging more responsible and productive environmental practices. He commended Mr. Mugisha, the farmer behind the initiative, for embracing the technology and personally financing its development. Thanks to Mr. Mugisha’s commitment, the project has advanced to the point where it is nearly ready to produce, package, and sell organic manure, marking a significant milestone in practical nutrient recycling.
“We want to document the various innovations that promote climate-smart agriculture while simultaneously addressing farmers’ real-world challenges,” said Prof. Asaete Josephine, who is part of the research team. “The innovation demonstrated by Mr. Mugisha not only solved his initial problem, the unpleasant smell of dung that was causing concern in the neighborhood, but also evolved into a broader solution. What began as an effort to manage odor has also addressed nutrient deficiencies. That’s where the climate-smart aspect comes in, she noted. Instead of spending resources on inorganic fertilizers, the farmer is now benefiting from nutrient recycling, which promotes faster plant growth while tackling the original issue of odor.”, she noted.
Mr. Mugisha explains the Innovation that has helped him resolve the challenge of waste and odor management on his farm.
Mr. Mugisha informed the visiting team that he initially started the farm to meet his family’s nutritional needs. However, as the farm grew, he encountered significant challenges related to waste management, which led him to connect with Dr. Herbert Mukiibi, whose expertise helped guide him toward innovative solutions. He said he first adopted biogas technology yet, odor problem persisted, leading him to explored more sustainable options and eventually embraced the nutrient recycling innovation. He said transforming waste into organic manure enabled him resolve the environmental concerns but also enhanced the productivity of his vegetable gardens, and is moving towards packaging and sale of organic manure.
The team interacts with Mrs. Mugisha (R). In the background is the slab where the manure will be dried before further processing and packaging.
The CICSA-E&SA project is a multi-institutional collaboration led by Makerere University, in partnership with the Norwegian University of Life Sciences (Norway), Maseno University (Kenya), and LUANAR and DARS (Malawi). The project is funded by the Norwegian Agency for International Cooperation and Quality Enhancement in Higher Education (Diku) and aims to promote climate-resilient agricultural practices across East and Southern Africa.
Makerere University (Mak) and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Uganda have signed a Memorandum of Understanding that launches a two-year, renewable partnership aimed at advancing child rights and well-being through rigorous research, capacity building, and policy-driven innovation.
The agreement was signed on Thursday, 14 August 2025, by Makerere Vice Chancellor Professor Barnabas Nawangwe and UNICEF Uganda Representative Dr. Robin Nandy in the Vice Chancellor’s Boardroom at Makerere’s Main Building.
The MoU enlists a focused collaboration on generating child-focused data and research to inform policy and program design, analyzing how health, nutrition, education, and protection initiatives affect children, and strengthening the social sector workforce through targeted training, curricula, and performance standards.
It also emphasizes knowledge management, wide dissemination of findings to stakeholders, policy and legislative advocacy for child rights, and active student engagement through internships, skilling opportunities, and communities of practice. The renewed partnership is designed to bolster evidence-based policy-making and drive program improvements that contribute to Uganda’s progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
Makerere Vice Chancellor Professor Barnabas Nawangwe expresses delight after signing the MoU. Photo by John Okeya
“The signing of this MoU deepens Makerere’s long-standing commitment to the well-being of Uganda’s children and Africa’s future,” said Vice Chancellor Nawangwe. “I thank Dr. Nandy for his leadership and for the continued collaboration that will expand our capacity to deliver research with immediate, practical benefits for communities.”
UNICEF’s Dr. Nandy stressed that the partnership reflects UNICEF’s global mission to protect and promote every child’s rights while translating research into policy and action. He highlighted Makerere’s proven strength in research leadership as a critical asset in the effort to generate robust evidence for government decision-making and resource allocation.
UNICEF Uganda Representative Dr. Robin Nandy speaks to the press shortly after the signing of the MoU at Makerere University. Photo by John Okeya
“This partnership shows our commitment to combine academic knowledge with practical results,” said Dr. Nandy. “Using Makerere’s research skills to create important information about child welfare issues and solutions, making sure that every project we start is based on solid data and aims to safeguard and support children’s basic rights.”
The partnership builds on Makerere University’s established research strengths and UNICEF’s global mandate to protect children. It complements longstanding collaborative work through Mak’s School of Public Health (MakSPH) and other faculties, reinforcing a broader university-wide commitment to evidence-based policy and community impact.
Since 2016, Makerere has participated in more than 30 UNICEF-supported research projects, which emphasize a deep mutual trust and shared mission. The Vice Chancellor noted that this history laid a robust foundation for the new MoU while also underlining opportunities to broaden collaboration beyond the health sector.
Vice Chancellor Prof. Barnabas Nawangwe and UNICEF Uganda Representative Dr. Robin Nandy with Makerere University faculty at the signing of the MoU.
Among the notable prior initiatives is MakSPH’s joint work with UBOS and UNICEF, supported by EU funding, on the first comprehensive Food Security and Nutrition Assessment in ten districts of Northern Uganda and the West Nile region (2019). The findings of this work informed targeted nutrition programs and strategies to combat malnutrition among vulnerable populations, shaping policy directions at local and national levels.
In 2023, MakSPH, in collaboration with the National Planning Authority (NPA) and UNICEF, along with FHI360 and the Ministry of Health, produced an updated Situation Analysis of Newborn Health in Uganda. The document has guided the ministry’s national strategy development, including costed investments to improve newborn health across the country.
Professor Rhoda Wanyenze, Dean of MakSPH, hailed the partnership as a continuation of a long-standing relationship, noting that UNICEF’s support was instrumental in establishing the Makerere University Centre of Excellence for Maternal Newborn & Child Health (MNCH) in 2013.
“It’s such a delight, a great honor to finally get to this event where we can formalize our partnership with UNICEF. The partnership between UNICEF and Makerere has been a long-standing one, and we have worked together for decades, which has driven critical research and informed national policies,” she said. She emphasized that both institutions share a passion for tackling adolescent health challenges, particularly early pregnancies and marriages, which remain persistent barriers to progress.
Professor Rhoda Wanyenze, Dean of MakSPH speaks to the press during the MoU Signing ceremony at Makerere University on Thursday.
The MoU extends collaboration beyond the School of Public Health. The Vice Chancellor noted productive partnerships across other departments, including the Department of Journalism and Communication and the College of Humanities and Social Sciences, emphasizing how diverse disciplines can contribute to evidence-based policy and community well-being.
Another important example is the Caring for the Caregiver (CFC) intervention led by the Makerere Institute of Teacher Education and Research (MITER) in the College of Education and External Studies (CEES). This was implemented in partnership with the Ministry of Health, UNICEF Uganda, and international partners. The evaluation examined caregiver emotional wellbeing, social support, and parenting stress in rural Uganda, contributing to the growing evidence base for nurturing care in resource-constrained settings.
Partnering for child rights and well-being through rigorous research, capacity building, and policy-driven innovation.
Also, the School of Statistics and Planning in the College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS) has partnered with UNICEF to tackle urgent socio-economic and public health challenges. A key example is the Socio-economic Impact Assessment of the 2022 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in Mubende and Kassanda districts, which examined household-level shocks, community coping strategies, and the wider disruption of livelihoods. The study’s findings have informed national policy dialogue and action planning, emphasizing that there must be stronger preparedness measures.
According to the Vice Chancellor, the university’s broader engagement with UNICEF as a driver of research, innovation, and community outreach benefits children and families throughout Uganda.
For Dr. Nandy the partnership will support student involvement in real-world operational and programmatic work, creating pipelines for young scholars to contribute to child welfare initiatives.
Both parties expressed a shared vision of translating research findings into concrete actions that strengthen child protection and opportunities for learning and development. The collaboration is expected to yield new efforts for effective interventions, sharpen the policy dialogue, and catalyze scalable innovations that improve the daily lives of Uganda’s children.
Professor Barnabas Nawangwe (Right) and Dr. Robin Nandy (Left) shake hands after signing the MoU.