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Makerere University Presents Covid-19 Intervention Model

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At a press conference held today Tuesday 16th June 2020, a research team led by Makerere University presented a ‘Mathematical Model of COVID-19 dynamics in Uganda: Using a locally parameterized system to enhance intervention policies’. The aim of the research from which the model is developed was to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Uganda and use the results to provide comprehensive forecast of the disease’ trends. The model endeavours to provide appropriate evidence-based policy support to government on the timing and nature of intervention measures.

The research team that worked on the study is led by Prof. Joseph Y.T. Mugisha, a Professor of Biomathematics (Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences). Professor Mugisha is also the Principal of the College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University. Other members of the team are: Dr. Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba (Makerere University), Dr. Joseph Ssebuliba (Makerere University) Dr. Amos Ssematimba (Gulu University), and Dr. Cliff Richard Kikawa (Kabale University).

The Vice Chancellor – Makerere University, Professor Barnabas Nawangwe and the Deputy Vice Chancellor –Academic Affairs, Associate Professor Umar Kakumba attended the press conference.

In his remarks, Professor Nawangwe welcomed the press to Makerere University thanking them for informing the public about the research and innovations developed by staff and students of Makerere University. He said ‘as we all are aware, COVID-I9 is a big global challenge and Makerere as a lead research institution is working to provide solutions to the pandemic at the national, regional and global levels with our partners’. He reiterated his appreciation of the Government of Uganda for providing funds through the Makerere Research and Innovation Fund that enabled the team to undertake the study presented.

Study Conclusion

The findings of this study show that the immediately implemented measures by the Government of Uganda averted thousands of cases that would have overstretched the health system within a couple of months. Without significantly altering the current situation, measures on partial lockdowns and use of masks are insufficient to stop COVID-19 and as such the disease will remain endemic in the population. In all the assessed scenarios the disease would be wiped out in the case where there are no infected arrivals beyond the first 58 days and in this case the disease would be wiped out within 200 days.

With the worrying situation of increased reported cases in our neighbouring countries, the impact of Uganda’s interventions would be greatly affected as results show that doubling the imported cases would almost triple both the maximum number of hospitalized individuals and the number of undetected cases.

Screening of truck drivers faces a challenge of reagent limitation, imperfect test accuracy, arrival of asymptomatic and latently infected individuals that may pass as false negatives during screening as well as the porosity of some of the national borders. Thus, adoption of alternative less-risky means of essential cargo delivery (e.g., by rail and ship services) combined with quarantining of all entrants for a duration not shorter than the incubation period should be enforced.

Amidst challenges of social-economic impact of COVID-19, agitation of lifting lockdown may downplay the impact of intervention measures and the study findings highlight the importance of optimal timing and magnitude of lockdown easing. Effectively phased-out ease of lockdown needs to be well studied and executed to avoid the possibility of a second wave.

Study Recommendations

1. It is not advisable to eased lockdown by releasing 50% of susceptible population for the Ugandan situation with current 3200 hospital beds and not all are of ICU-like capacity, because within 100 days the COVID-19 related hospitalization demand would have already overwhelmed the current resources.

2. Since the consequences of hospital acquired infections go beyond merely increasing the number of cases, their mitigation should be given high priority.

3. Lifted to a 75% level, the yet-to-be detected cases in the community have potential to start a second and more disastrous epidemic wave. However, with enhanced surveillance and contact tracing, gradual easing by releasing smaller percentages of susceptible individuals from lockdown can still be safely executed sooner than the optimum 210 days for up to 75% susceptible level.

4. The issue of handling truck drivers mingling at service and testing centres at border crossings should be reinforced – preferably, government should set up treatment and isolation facilities as close as possible to the testing border points not to overwhelmed the existing regional facilities, optimize scarce handling resources and also to minimize stigma and community discontent. This would in addition reduce the time frontline workers are exposed to the risk of infection amidst lack of well-equipped ambulances

5. Since latently infected individuals can only be detected after latent period, effort should be put on obtaining information on where the drivers have been few days before arrival to understand the risk of admitting persons from high risk regions of neighbouring countries. The risk of imported cases is not only posed by those who test positive but also due to false negatives and latently infected individuals.

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Ms Zaam Ssali

College of Natural Sciences

 

 

Elias Tuhereze

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Agriculture & Environment

What two weeks with Farmers in Mwera, Mityana, taught Makerere’s PhD Students about Agricultural Innovation

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PARI Xlll students (Seated) with Dr. Richard Miiro (R) at Mwera tea estate, Mityana District after their second transect walk in October 2026. PhD in Agricultural and Rural Innovation XIII, Department of Extension and Innovation Studies, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES), Makerere University Field Course, 4th-16th Oct 2026, Mwera Parish, Mityana District, Uganda, East Africa.

From walking through farms and tracing agricultural histories to listening to farmers and engaging communities in dialogue, a two-week field course in Mityana District offered Makerere University doctoral students a profound lesson: meaningful agricultural innovation begins with the people it seeks to serve.

When the classroom moved to Mwera, Mityana

For two weeks, the classroom had no walls. Its lessons were written across coffee and banana gardens, cultivated fields, homesteads and the lived experiences of farming communities in Mityana District. From 4 to 16 October 2026, Mwera Parish and the surrounding villages of Kiwande, Kakindu, Kitiddibuli, Bananze and Kireku became an extended classroom for six doctoral students pursuing a PhD in Agricultural and Rural Innovation under Makerere University‘s Department of Extension and Innovation Studies.

The students were undertaking a field course in Action Research in Agri-food Systems, Innovations and Livelihoods, an academic exercise designed to take learning beyond the university and into the communities whose agricultural realities are often the subject of research, policy and development interventions.

The community feedback meeting by Makerere University PARI XIII at Mwera Community Hall. PhD in Agricultural and Rural Innovation XIII, Department of Extension and Innovation Studies, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES), Makerere University Field Course, 4th-16th Oct 2026, Mwera Parish, Mityana District, Uganda, East Africa.
The community feedback meeting by Makerere University PARI XIII at Mwera Community Hall.

Here, there were no neatly arranged lecture halls or powerpoint presentations to explain every agricultural challenge. Instead, there were landscapes to interpret, farmers with stories to tell, and agricultural practices shaped by generations of experience, adaptation and survival.

Under the guidance of Dr. Richard Miiro, Dr. Sarah Akello and Dr. Moses Okech, the students set out to understand farming systems not simply as combinations of crops and livestock, but as complex relationships between people, natural resources, institutions, markets and livelihoods.

What began as an academic exercise would gradually become something more profound. An encounter with the realities of rural life and a reconsideration of what it truly means to support agricultural innovation.

Reading the landscape, listening to farmers

Dr. Okech Moses (C) guiding PARI XIII student Joeria Nandaula (R) during the community interview sessions in Kiwande Village. PhD in Agricultural and Rural Innovation XIII, Department of Extension and Innovation Studies, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES), Makerere University Field Course, 4th-16th Oct 2026, Mwera Parish, Mityana District, Uganda, East Africa.
Dr. Okech Moses (C) guiding PARI XIII student Joeria Nandaula (R) during the community interview sessions in Kiwande Village.

The first lessons came from the landscape itself. Moving through Mwera, Kakindu, Bananze, Kitiddibuli and neighbouring communities, the students conducted transect walks, observed cropping patterns, examined agroecological conditions and interacted with farming households.

Everywhere they looked, the landscape offered clues about how people made a living.

Coffee and banana gardens stood alongside seasonal crops, livestock enterprises and settlements. The arrangement of farms, the crops under cultivation and the resources available to households reflected decisions shaped by soil conditions, land availability, household resources and market opportunities.

Yet, as the students soon discovered, what was visible on the land told only part of the story. Why did neighbouring households practise agriculture differently, even when they appeared to share similar conditions? How had farming systems changed over time? What influenced farmers’ decisions, and what challenges continued to threaten their livelihoods?

To answer these questions, the students had to do more than observe. They had to listen. Through interviews, historical inquiries and participatory discussions, farmers shared experiences that offered explanations beyond what could be seen in their fields.

Their accounts revealed that agricultural decisions are not always driven by the desire to maximise yields or profits. Sometimes, a farmer’s choice reflects the immediate needs of a household, limited financial resources, available labour, uncertainty about markets, the need to manage risks or lessons accumulated over years of experience. A farming practice that might appear inefficient to an outsider could, when understood through the farmer’s circumstances, represent a deliberate and practical response to uncertainty.

PARI XIII students paying attention to instructions from Dr. Miiro and Dr. Akello ahead of the community entry and landscape mapping. PhD in Agricultural and Rural Innovation XIII, Department of Extension and Innovation Studies, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES), Makerere University Field Course, 4th-16th Oct 2026, Mwera Parish, Mityana District, Uganda, East Africa.
PARI XIII students paying attention to instructions from Dr. Miiro and Dr. Akello ahead of the community entry and landscape mapping.

For the doctoral students, these encounters challenged a conventional assumption about agricultural extension, that experts possess knowledge which must simply be transferred to farmers.

The farmers of Mwera were far from passive recipients of information. They were knowledgeable actors, continuously observing, experimenting, adjusting and making decisions within the opportunities and limitations of their circumstances. It became increasingly clear that effective agricultural extension cannot begin with prescribing solutions. It must begin with understanding the people expected to use them.

Understanding the farming system

As the days progressed, the students began connecting what they had observed in the fields with what they were learning from the farmers. They examined the area’s agrarian history, farming practices, resource use and livelihood strategies, seeking to understand not only how agriculture was being practised, but also why farming systems had evolved in particular ways.

Historical accounts helped explain changes in land use, agricultural production and livelihoods. Observations of the landscape revealed differences in farming opportunities, while conversations with households illuminated the social and economic circumstances influencing agricultural decisions.

Some of the PARI XIII students pose for a photo during their transect walk from Bananze Village to Mwera Tea Estate in Mityana (L-R Nambalirwa, Agena, Mufuruki and Mayanja). PhD in Agricultural and Rural Innovation XIII, Department of Extension and Innovation Studies, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES), Makerere University Field Course, 4th-16th Oct 2026, Mwera Parish, Mityana District, Uganda, East Africa.
Some of the PARI XIII students pose for a photo during their transect walk from Bananze Village to Mwera Tea Estate in Mityana (L-R Nambalirwa, Agena, Mufuruki and Mayanja).

Therefore, addressing one problem without understanding its relationship to others can result in interventions that appear technically sound but are difficult for farmers to adopt or sustain. The field experience also challenged the tendency to associate agricultural innovation exclusively with new technologies, improved seeds, machinery or modern production techniques.

Innovation, the students learned, can also emerge from changes in how farmers organise themselves, share knowledge, access information, manage resources, respond to risks or collaborate with institutions. Sometimes, the most consequential innovation is not a new technology introduced onto a farm, but a new relationship, an improved way of working together or a better understanding of an existing challenge.

For students, these insights were particularly significant. They reinforced the importance of understanding the wider social, economic and institutional environment within which agricultural decisions are made. They also demonstrated why successful interventions must be relevant to farmers’ circumstances, inclusive of different farming households and sustainable beyond the period of external support.

When researchers returned to the community

After nearly two weeks of walking through farms, observing agricultural practices, conducting interviews and analysing findings, the students returned to the people who had made their learning possible. This time, however, they were not coming to ask questions. They were coming to share what they had learned and, importantly, to find out whether the community agreed with their interpretations.

At Mwera Community Hall, more than 60 community members gathered for a feedback session, among them were farmers who had participated in the fieldwork and shared their experiences with the students. It was a defining moment in the field course.

PARI XIII student Maureen Agena (R) draws a transect map during a reflection meeting with fellow students and Drs.PhD in Agricultural and Rural Innovation XIII, Department of Extension and Innovation Studies, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES), Makerere University Field Course, 4th-16th Oct 2026, Mwera Parish, Mityana District, Uganda, East Africa.
PARI XIII student Maureen Agena (R) draws a transect map during a reflection meeting with fellow students and Drs.

The students presented their findings on the landscape, agricultural history, farming practices, livelihood strategies and the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats identified within the farming systems. But the meeting was not intended to be a one-way presentation of academic findings. Community members were invited to validate the observations, question the interpretations, identify gaps and contribute their own perspectives on the challenges facing agriculture in the area.

The discussions brought familiar concerns to the forefront; declining soil fertility, the rising cost of agricultural inputs, crop suitability, pests and diseases, and access to agricultural services.

Through a participatory prioritisation exercise, pests and diseases emerged as the farmers’ leading concern, followed by limited access to farmer advisory services.

The significance of this outcome went beyond identifying two agricultural challenges. It demonstrated why communities must be involved not only in providing information for research, but also in interpreting findings and determining which problems deserve priority attention. For researchers, a challenge may appear important because of its technical or economic implications. For farmers, its urgency may be shaped by daily experiences, the risks it presents to household livelihoods and their ability to respond.

The feedback session therefore became more than the conclusion of a field course. It was an opportunity for the students to subject their academic interpretations to the knowledge and judgement of the people whose lives those interpretations sought to explain.

In that exchange lay an important distinction between conducting research on communities and conducting research with them. The farmers were not merely sources of data. They were contributors to knowledge generation, participants in validating findings and partners in identifying the challenges that mattered most to them. Yet, even as the discussions drew to a close, a larger question remained: What happens after researchers leave?

Rethinking agricultural extension and innovation

The experience in Mwera offered lessons extending well beyond the requirements of a doctoral field course. For agricultural extension professionals, it raised fundamental questions about how farmers are understood, how agricultural problems are diagnosed and how interventions are designed.

The community meeting underway at Mwera community hall with PhD student Ibrahim Mayanja explaining the Agri-ecological zones along the routes.PhD in Agricultural and Rural Innovation XIII, Department of Extension and Innovation Studies, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES), Makerere University Field Course, 4th-16th Oct 2026, Mwera Parish, Mityana District, Uganda, East Africa.
The community meeting underway at Mwera community hall with PhD student Ibrahim Mayanja explaining the Agri-ecological zones along the transect routes.

The first lesson was the importance of diagnosis before prescription.

Agricultural interventions cannot be adequately designed without understanding the landscape, its history, the diversity of farming households and the social, economic and institutional relationships that influence their decisions. What works for one farmer may not necessarily work for another, even within the same community. Differences in land ownership, labour availability, financial resources, farming objectives and exposure to risk can significantly influence the suitability of an intervention.

The second lesson concerned the place of farmers in knowledge creation.

Scientific research remains essential to agricultural development, but farmers also possess valuable knowledge acquired through experience, observation and adaptation. Bringing these forms of knowledge together creates opportunities for solutions that are both scientifically informed and grounded in local realities.

The third lesson was that agricultural innovation is rarely the achievement of a single actor.

Farmers, researchers, extension workers, government institutions, markets and other development actors all influence how knowledge is generated, shared and translated into practice. Innovation therefore requires collaboration, coordination and relationships that enable different actors to learn from one another and respond to shared challenges.

Taken together, these lessons challenge agricultural extension professionals to move beyond their traditional role as transmitters of technical knowledge and become facilitators of learning, collaboration and innovation.

They also challenge universities to reflect on the meaning of research impact.

Should the success of agricultural research be measured only by the volume of data collected, academic reports completed and publications produced? Or should it also be assessed by the extent to which research strengthens communities’ capacity to understand and address their own challenges? For institutions such as Makerere University, whose teaching and research are closely connected to national development priorities, this question is particularly relevant. Field-based learning offers an opportunity to connect academic inquiry with the realities of the communities that research ultimately seeks to serve. It also reminds researchers that meaningful engagement requires more than arriving in a community, collecting information and departing with findings. It calls for listening, mutual learning, respect for local knowledge and a willingness to recognise farmers as partners in the search for solutions.

Maureen Agena.
Maureen Agena

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Research

CARTA Fellow Tamale on Building Systems, Shaping Policy and Transforming Lives beyond the PhD

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Dr. Andrew Tamale, College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and BioSecurity (CoVAB), Makerere University, Kampala Uganda, East Africa. Photo. CARTA.

A PhD can spark impact that extends far beyond academia. Meet CARTA graduate Andrew Tamale, whose journey demonstrates the multiplier effect of research capacity strengthening—from helping transform doctoral training and generating evidence that informed safer fish consumption practices, to strengthening One Health approaches for outbreak preparedness in Uganda and beyond. 

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Source: CARTA News & Updates Issue 105

Mark Wamai

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Research

CARTA Fellow Anywar Appointed UTANA Subject Matter Expert, Talks Medicinal Plants

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Dr. Godwin Anywar, Department of Plant Sciences, Microbiology and Biotechnology, College of Natural Sciences (CoNAS), Makerere University. Kampala Uganda, East Africa.

Godwin Anywar, cohort 6, Makerere University, was appointed as a Subject Matter Expert on the Manuscript Technical Evaluators team of the Uganda Textbook Academic and Non-Fiction Authors Association (UTANA) on August 31, 2026. In this role, Godwin will contribute to the qualitative, academic, and pedagogical assessment of manuscripts submitted under the Capacity Building for School Books Project (CB-SP). The four-year project, implemented jointly with the Department of Teacher Education and Training Development (TETD) of Uganda’s Ministry of Education and Sports (MoES), aims to strengthen authorship and support the development of school books in Uganda’s education sector.

He was also featured in Uganda’s New Vision on July 26, 2026, in a special report on Uganda’s medicinal plants.

Source: CARTA News & Updates Issue 105

Mark Wamai

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