At a press conference held today Tuesday 16th June 2020, a research team led by Makerere University presented a ‘Mathematical Model of COVID-19 dynamics in Uganda: Using a locally parameterized system to enhance intervention policies’. The aim of the research from which the model is developed was to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Uganda and use the results to provide comprehensive forecast of the disease’ trends. The model endeavours to provide appropriate evidence-based policy support to government on the timing and nature of intervention measures.
The research team that worked on the study is led by Prof. Joseph Y.T. Mugisha, a Professor of Biomathematics (Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences). Professor Mugisha is also the Principal of the College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University. Other members of the team are: Dr. Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba (Makerere University), Dr. Joseph Ssebuliba (Makerere University) Dr. Amos Ssematimba (Gulu University), and Dr. Cliff Richard Kikawa (Kabale University).
The Vice Chancellor – Makerere University, Professor Barnabas Nawangwe and the Deputy Vice Chancellor –Academic Affairs, Associate Professor Umar Kakumba attended the press conference.
In his remarks, Professor Nawangwe welcomed the press to Makerere University thanking them for informing the public about the research and innovations developed by staff and students of Makerere University. He said ‘as we all are aware, COVID-I9 is a big global challenge and Makerere as a lead research institution is working to provide solutions to the pandemic at the national, regional and global levels with our partners’. He reiterated his appreciation of the Government of Uganda for providing funds through the Makerere Research and Innovation Fund that enabled the team to undertake the study presented.
Study Conclusion
The findings of this study show that the immediately implemented measures by the Government of Uganda averted thousands of cases that would have overstretched the health system within a couple of months. Without significantly altering the current situation, measures on partial lockdowns and use of masks are insufficient to stop COVID-19 and as such the disease will remain endemic in the population. In all the assessed scenarios the disease would be wiped out in the case where there are no infected arrivals beyond the first 58 days and in this case the disease would be wiped out within 200 days.
With the worrying situation of increased reported cases in our neighbouring countries, the impact of Uganda’s interventions would be greatly affected as results show that doubling the imported cases would almost triple both the maximum number of hospitalized individuals and the number of undetected cases.
Screening of truck drivers faces a challenge of reagent limitation, imperfect test accuracy, arrival of asymptomatic and latently infected individuals that may pass as false negatives during screening as well as the porosity of some of the national borders. Thus, adoption of alternative less-risky means of essential cargo delivery (e.g., by rail and ship services) combined with quarantining of all entrants for a duration not shorter than the incubation period should be enforced.
Amidst challenges of social-economic impact of COVID-19, agitation of lifting lockdown may downplay the impact of intervention measures and the study findings highlight the importance of optimal timing and magnitude of lockdown easing. Effectively phased-out ease of lockdown needs to be well studied and executed to avoid the possibility of a second wave.
Study Recommendations
1. It is not advisable to eased lockdown by releasing 50% of susceptible population for the Ugandan situation with current 3200 hospital beds and not all are of ICU-like capacity, because within 100 days the COVID-19 related hospitalization demand would have already overwhelmed the current resources.
2. Since the consequences of hospital acquired infections go beyond merely increasing the number of cases, their mitigation should be given high priority.
3. Lifted to a 75% level, the yet-to-be detected cases in the community have potential to start a second and more disastrous epidemic wave. However, with enhanced surveillance and contact tracing, gradual easing by releasing smaller percentages of susceptible individuals from lockdown can still be safely executed sooner than the optimum 210 days for up to 75% susceptible level.
4. The issue of handling truck drivers mingling at service and testing centres at border crossings should be reinforced – preferably, government should set up treatment and isolation facilities as close as possible to the testing border points not to overwhelmed the existing regional facilities, optimize scarce handling resources and also to minimize stigma and community discontent. This would in addition reduce the time frontline workers are exposed to the risk of infection amidst lack of well-equipped ambulances
5. Since latently infected individuals can only be detected after latent period, effort should be put on obtaining information on where the drivers have been few days before arrival to understand the risk of admitting persons from high risk regions of neighbouring countries. The risk of imported cases is not only posed by those who test positive but also due to false negatives and latently infected individuals.
The Harnessing Health Data Science capacity to strengthen evidence-based interventions, policy and response to the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Uganda (H-DATA) is a training grant funded by the NIH through Fogarty International Center (Grant Number D43TW013056). This grant is a collaborative effort of multiple principal investigators from Makerere University, Uganda and University of California, San Francisco, USA.
Grant period: 2026/2030 | Principal Investigators: David Patrick Kateete; Charles Batte; Joyce Nakatumba, Nabende; Efstathios Gennatas Dimitrios
H-DATA seeks to recruit qualified Ugandans for full-time PhD training in Health Data Science registered at Makerere University.
Thematic areas
Candidates should propose research studies or concepts that apply health data science approaches (AI and Machine learning) to the following thematic themes:
HIV risk stratification
Non-communicable Diseases (NCD) comorbidities in HIV [Specifically Chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases / hypertension]
HIV treatment outcomes, adherence, and long-term ART trajectories
Non-Canonical HIV resistance mutations
Digital medicine and real-world HIV data
Health systems and policy analytics for HIV programs
Fellowship package
The PhD fellowship support is for up to three (3) years (full-time), subject to annual performance reviews and progress milestones. Successful scholars will be registered at Makerere University and may undertake sponsored didactic health data science methods training at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), USA, to receive additional skills development and mentorship in health data science research.
Application Information
ELIGIBILITY
Applicants should meet the following minimum requirements:
– Master’s degree in Computer Science, Statistics/Biostatistics, Mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Bioinformatics, Epidemiology, Public Health, or another data-intensive discipline. – Demonstrated interest and/or experience applying data science methods/technologies to health research or health systems. – Strong quantitative or computational skills (e.g., programming, statistical analysis, machine learning, data management). – Ugandan citizenship and commitment to advancing health data science in Africa. – Ability to enroll in and complete full-time PhD training at Makerere University.
Note: Additional program- or department-specific admission requirements may apply.
Note: Proof of admission is not required at the time of application. However, preference will be given to applicants who have already secured admission to, or are currently registered in, a relevant PhD programme.
APPLICATION PACKAGE & SUBMISSION
Submit the following documents by email as a single application package:
– NIH Biosketch (maximum 4 pages) including relevant publications (if any). – Cover letter (maximum 1 page). – 2-page research concept note highlighting: research problem, specific aims, research design, and analysis plan. – Academic transcripts and certificates for the relevant Master of Science (MSc) degree. – Statement of purpose / motivational letter (maximum 800 words) for undertaking doctoral training in Health Data Science. – Two letters of recommendation with up-to-date contact details from academic referees.
The Wellcome Sanger Institute is seeking exceptional early career stage scientists to join the Institute as an International Fellow, contributing to the Institute’s scientific portfolio. Up to six fellowships available.
The Institute is an internationally outstanding genomic research centre with over 30 core faculty teams and 1,300 employees based south of Cambridge, UK.
Fellowship Eligibility:
You are typically an early-mid career group leader/faculty usually up to nine years post PhD, based at a research organisation in a low- or middle-income country (LMIC). You may hold a faculty or equivalent position and are seeking to establish or strengthen your research team to develop an internationally recognised research portfolio. We also welcome applicants with equivalent experience, including those who have taken career breaks or followed non-traditional paths
Your main research aims should be focused on your local country and research priorities which contributes to or complements the Institute’s scientific strategy through their expertise.
Makerere University has launched a knowledge-sharing platform designed to bridge research, education, and community outreach, with the aim of accelerating innovation and economic development in Uganda.
The platform is the outcome of a project led by Prof. Edward Bbaale, which examined how universities can translate research, innovations, and institutional capabilities into tangible impact for communities, businesses, and national economic growth, in line with the government’s tenfold growth agenda. The project was funded by the Government of Uganda through the Makerere UniversityResearch and Innovations Fund (Mak-RIF).
The study also explored how university-based research and innovation can be better aligned with Uganda’s development priorities in agriculture, tourism, mineral-based industrialization, and science and technology, as outlined in the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV).
Speaking at the launch, the First Deputy Vice-Chancellor for Academic Affairs, Prof. Sarah Ssali, said the platform would strengthen the link between academic research and societal transformation. She also noted that knowledge production and utilization is a political matter and urged researchers to meaningfully engage and participate in such converstaions.
Dr. Stephen Wandera, representing the Chairperson of the Mak-RIF Grants Management Committee, described the platform as timely and relevant, noting that it comes at a period when Makerere University is positioning itself as a research-led institution with measurable impact on communities and systems.
“The knowledge-sharing platform will enable researchers to disseminate their work to relevant audiences,” Dr. Wandera said. He added that dissemination workshops are among several avenues available for sharing research findings and urged the project team to explore additional channels, including policy briefs, academic publications, and online dialogue platforms.
Stakeholders from Makerere and other Universities pose for a group photo at the event.
The Director of Research, Innovation, and Partnerships, Prof. Robert Wamala, said the dissemination workshop reflects Makerere University’s long-standing commitment to generating knowledge that responds to national priorities, advances innovation, and contributes to Uganda’s socio-economic transformation.
He added that the Directorate supports initiatives that move research beyond academic boundaries into practical application, policy influence, enterprise development, and community impact.
Dr. Peter Babyenda, the project’s Co-Principal Investigator, said the initiative combined research, outreach, and capacity-building activities, drawing lessons from global models where universities play a direct role in community development by supporting agriculture, industry, and the growth of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
Dean of the School of Economics, Prof. Ibrahim Michael Okumu, observed that while Uganda’s universities have produced substantial research, its translation into practical outcomes has remained slow. He cautioned that Makerere University’s relevance will ultimately be measured by the extent to which its work contributes to national development.
Dr. Babyenda noted that the platform will support the development of sustainable research, education, and outreach systems, helping to bridge the gap between university research and real-world application.
“As we launch this platform, I encourage academics, students, industry players, policymakers, and communities to actively engage with it,” Prof. Wamala said. “Let it serve as a living space for dialogue, learning, co-creation, and innovation.”
The knowledge-sharing platform is accessible to the public at www.dissemination.ug. Its launch took place at Sheraton Hotel in Kampala and was attended by officials from Makerere University, Kyambogo University, Gulu University, Mbarara University of Science and Technology (MUST), Busitema University, and Soroti University.