On 29^th August 2025, researchers from Makerere University College of Business and Management Sciences and the Copenhagen Business School, in partnership with Uganda Small Scale Industries Association disseminated the key findings and policy recommendations aimed at impacting both the informal and formal sectors in Uganda.

The dissemination workshop follows an intensive and participatory research project, which presents insights from a large scale study of over 1,100 small-scale firms across Uganda. Hosted at Makerere University, the dissemination workshop on Firm Formalization and Sustainable Development, brought on board key stakeholders including regulators, policy implementers, researchers, industry partners, the private sectors, manufactures, the academia, business men and women from the informal sector, and the media.

Approximately 90% of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Sub-Saharan Africa operate in the informal sector. Uganda’s informal economy employs the majority of workers, but is characterized by low productivity and unsustainable practices. In Uganda, nearly 78% of the working population operate in the informal economy, spanning from street vendors to large unregistered businesses. Firms may choose to remain informal to hinder the accessibility of tax information, which consequently affects the government’s ability to mobilize domestic revenue. While informality provides livelihoods and informal firms may enjoy a significant degree of adaptability and flexibility, they typically face low productivity, limited worker protection, and environmentally harmful practices.

In 2022, an interdisciplinary team of scholars and practitioners embarked on research to examine the informal sector, gain a deeper understanding of the informal sector, as well as, its impact on sustainable development. The research team conducted field experiments and survey-based studies between 2022-2024 to evaluate the links between formalization and sustainable development.

Led by Prof. Marcus M. Larsen as the Principal Investigator, the research team consisted of the following the members: Prof. Faisal Buyinza-Local Principal Investigator, Dr. John Seruyange-Makerere University School of Economics, Dr. Ismail Kintu and Dr. Yusuf Kiwala-Makerere University School of Business, and Prof. Rebecca Namatovu-Copenhagen Business School. The research was funded by the Independent Research Fund Denmark.

“Our research shows that formalization can promote sustainable development, but outcomes differ by type: URA tax registration drives the most meaningful improvements in business, labour, and environmental practices, while URSB business registration mainly boosts legitimacy and local government licensing lags behind. To realize Uganda’s green and inclusive growth goals, formalization must be coupled with sustainability incentives, targeted reforms, and strong support from government, business associations, and civil society. From the policy perspective, the government needs to simplify the legitimization process through increased proximity of the registration centres for SMEs to leverage the benefits of formalization.”

Opening the dissemination workshop, the Principal of the College of Business and Management Sciences-Prof. Edward Bbaale represented by the Deputy Principal, Professor James Wokadala, emphasized the significance of the study in shaping Uganda’s development agenda.  He underscored that Makerere University is committed to undertaking research with partners to drive inclusive growth and sustainable economic development. The Deputy Principal noted that the interdisciplinary research team combining the global north and global south expertise, positions the College of Business and Management Sciences at Makerere University, to produce impactful research to influence policy and practice at the national and global levels.

Unpacking the key concept in the research project, Ms. Veronica Namwanje, the Director of Uganda Small Scale Industries Association (USSIA) explained that formalization goes beyond business registration. “Formalization is about strengthening enterprises to grow sustainably,” she articulated. Commending the partnership between USSIA and the School of Economics at Makerere University, Ms. Namwanje stated that this collaborative learning experience will strengthen SME’s in Uganda. “This research will significantly impact Uganda’s economy. 75% of the labour force is employed in the non-formal sector. The research will support over 12,000 member SMEs across Uganda,” she said.

Building on the remarks from the College Principal and the Director of USSIA respectively, the Moderator of the dissemination workshop, Dr. Anthony Tibaingana called upon the project Principal Investigator, Prof. Marcus Larsen from Copenhagen Business School, to present to the audience, the gist of the research on formalization and sustainable development.

Prof. Larsen commenced his presentation by acknowledging the Local Principal Investigator, Prof. Faisal Buyinza and Makerere University researchers in Economics and Business for their commitment and dedication. “This project started in 2022. You have worked with me wholeheartedly. Thank you for being true partners,” he remarked. Prof. Larsen explained that this research exposed him to the beautiful country called Uganda, its fine weather and hospitable people. As this particular research project comes to an end, he leaves Uganda and Makerere University with good memories, of working with people, committed to the transformation of society.

Setting the pace into his presentation that provided a strong case for formalization of business given its contribution to inclusive growth and development of any country, Prof. Larsen provided a comparison between the Global north where formalization is a norm.  “The Global North has zero tolerance for informal practices. In the Global North, you must be formally registered to operate a business,” he reported.

In the Global South, Prof. Larsen disclosed that the research studies proved that the number of firms under the informal sector was quite high. Through the research project, Firm Formalization and Sustainable Development in Uganda, they observed that many small scale businesses operate without any form of registration, from the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) and the Uganda Registration Services Bureau (URSB).

With over 78% of the working population employed in the informal economy through numerous establishments (ILOSTAT, 2024), Prof. Larsen stressed that the situation in Uganda, necessitates a combined effort to ensure formalization of businesses/firms. He notified the audience about Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8.3, which encourages the formalization and growth of micro, small and medium sized enterprises. He also made reference to Uganda’s 4^th National Development Plan, which states, and I quote: “This dual nature of informality contributes to low productivity, survival and growth of enterprises, as well as, limiting effectiveness of government policy incentives.”

Prof. Larsen argued that addressing high firm informality in the Global South through formalization can unlock growth, enable access to resources, spur sustainable development, drive inclusive growth, and contribute to the realization of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Examining SMEs and the environment, Prof. Larsen reported that the research findings indicated that that environmental issues are given less attention by SMEs. “Informal workers are particularly affected by and affect climate change. Most of the interactions proved that informal workers use environmentally unfriendly practices,” he stated. Prof. Larsen together with the research team advocated for a transition to formalization of firms, which leads to environmental sustainability with decent workers.

The research team observed that informal workers suffer from job insecurity, and in most cases, their employers do not remit their social protection funds. For instance, in Uganda, most of the workers in the informal sector did not have any contributions with the National Social Security Fund (NSSF).

Presenting the key research insights, Prof. Larsen focused on the formalization and practices, interpretation for policy makers, and SME survival and sustainability. Formalization and Practices provided hints on URSB (business registration), URA (Tax Registration) and Local Government (Trading Licenses).

Providing the interpretation for policy makers, Prof. Larsen elaborated as follows: URSB formalization mainly signals legitimacy, but has limited impact on deeper practices; URA formalization, though resisted initially, delivers the strongest and broadest improvements in business, worker and environmental practices once firms adopt it; and Local government licensing is associated with negative or weak outcomes indicating a need to reform systems to better incentivize sustainability.

On SME Survival and Sustainability, the key research insights include the following:

Financing: MSMEs that started with external financing were 12% more likely to survive than those using internal funds.

Gender: Male owned MSMEs had a higher survival rate (+13%) due to greater access to resources, though firms owned by females reported stronger sustainability orientations.

Location: Urban-based firms had 10-20% higher survival than rural firms, though rural enterprises displayed higher sustainability practices overall.

Education: Owners with university education had survival rates 17 to 24% higher than those with primary schooling.

Business associations: Female-owned MSMEs in associations had 13 to 16% higher survival rates

Registration effects: Surprisingly, longer registration with URA/URSB was associated with slightly lower survival rates (1 to 4%), pointing to burdens of compliance.

The Local Principal Investigator, Prof. Faisal Buyinza, advocated for multi-faceted policies to empower SMEs in Uganda for instance, through simplifying registration, providing green tax incentives, protection of workers and guarding against counterfeit products.  Prof. Buyinza presented the following policy recommendations:

• Raising sustainability standards in business formalization
• Building green and fair fiscal systems
• Strengthening social protection and green employment
• Enhancing entrepreneurial skills for sustainability
• Promoting youth and ago-led green innovation
• Advancing women’s leadership in sustainable enterprises
• Digital transformation for green formalization
• Civil society and employer advocacy for just transition

The participants delved into an interactive question and answer session moderated by Prof. Eria Hisali, former Principal of the College of Business and Management Sciences, who provided strategic guidance and oversight at the inception of the research project.

Prof. Hisali called upon the participants and key stakeholders to contribute to the discussion, when he said: “The informal sector is not abstract. The informal sector is with us. I therefore call upon you to share lived experiences and practices on this matter.”

Taking on the form of a plenary, the following ideas were raised:

• Financial constraints are a major blow to SMEs. This is further complicated by the payments required through registration, licensing, taxation, and other formalization processes including the high cost for online operations that require access to the Internet.
• Power outages in Uganda significantly affect business operations. When power is on and off, SMEs incur losses due to the nature of their activities.
• URA has a close working relationship with Uganda Small Scale Industries Association (USSIA). This partnership should be leveraged to reach out to business owners in the informal sector.
• The government should provide tax incentives to local investors. This incentive will positively impact formalization of businesses.
• URBS should come up with tough measures on standards in order to safeguard Ugandans from counterfeit products.
• URA and URSB should note that majority of players in the informal sector are not educated, and, as such, should come up with specialized awareness programmes delivered in a language that they can understand.
• Noting that despite the benefits of formalization, entrepreneurs fear to formalize their business, those concerned should invest time and resources to identify the reasons behind this attitude.
• Create awareness by deliberately popularizing the benefits of formalizing a business, and the incentives that accrue to someone who has formalized his or her business.
• Commending the stakeholder mapping and segmentation with respect to policy recommendation, the participants requested for the involvement of the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development.
• Tackling the policy recommendation on digital transformation, the participants recommended the involvement of NITA-Uganda.
• Formalization of businesses and registration is affected by the high cost of Internet services and subscriptions. The participants reported that the high costs of Internet deter online operations.

Reflecting on the ideas raised during the plenary sessions, Prof. Hisali observed differences in the level of awareness regarding business formalization. He called upon the Uganda Small Scale Industries Association and Makerere University to continue the discussion with key stakeholders to conduct periodic awareness creation and training sessions.

On a positive note, the participants and stakeholders were notified that URA was in advanced stages of according tax holidays to SMEs. Prof. Faisal Buyinza, who interacted with URA, during the course of the research project (2022-2024), highlighted that effective July 2026, start-up business up to UGX 300million, will not be taxed. Such start up business, will enjoy a tax holiday of three years.”

The submission from Prof. Faisal Buyinza was supported by officials from URA who were physically present in the dissemination workshop held in the Conference Hall, at the College of Business and Management Sciences, Makerere University.

The participants were thoroughly engaged during the dissemination workshop, which entailed remarks from the College Principal, presentation by USSIA, project purpose and findings, research presentation, policy implications, question and answer session, and final reflections.

Kampala, Uganda – August 27, 2025
A new study spanning a decade has revealed that the prices currently offered for carbon credits and other climate finance instruments are too low to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries.

The findings were presented by Canadian scholar Prof. Mark Purdon during a seminar at Makerere University, where he launched his new book “The Political Economy of Climate Finance Effectiveness in Developing Countries: Carbon Markets, Climate Funds, and the State.” The event, hosted by the Environment for Development (EfD) Mak Centre, attracted graduate students and academic staff from the Schools of Economics and Agricultural Sciences.

Prof. Purdon, an Associate Professor at Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), based his conclusions on a comparative study conducted between 2008 and 2018 in Uganda, Tanzania, and Moldova. His research showed that while carbon markets and climate funds are theoretically designed to reduce emissions, their real-world effectiveness is constrained by the low financial incentives attached.

“Carbon prices during the period I studied were simply too low to drive meaningful emission reductions,” said Prof. Purdon. “They only worked in contexts where governments were already trying to push development initiatives-like Uganda’s forestry projects and the climate finance just helped amplify that effort.”

The research contrasts Uganda’s relatively proactive approach with Tanzania’s limited engagement, attributing the difference not to institutional capacity but to political will.

“In Tanzania, the government just wasn’t genuinely interested in these instruments -they didn’t find the financial incentives compelling. Uganda, on the other hand, saw even the modest funding as worth integrating into its broader development goals,” he added.

Interestingly, Moldova also showed effectiveness similar to Uganda, despite having different levels of state capacity. Prof. Purdon emphasized that success in utilizing climate finance depends more on political interest than institutional strength alone.

The seminar highlighted the importance of domestic commitment in making international climate finance work. According to Purdon, climate finance is unlikely to succeed in countries lacking political interest, regardless of the mechanisms in place.

The professor’s book aims to inform policymakers, development agencies, and researchers about the conditions under which climate finance can effectively contribute to emission reduction. He expressed hope that students and faculty at Makerere University would further engage with the study’s findings.

“This is how ideas turn into action – through forums like this,” he said, noting his appreciation for the strong turnout and engagement at the event.

Prof. Purdon was in Uganda to attend the International Growth Center (IGC) conference later in the week, but used the opportunity to share his latest work with the Makerere academic community.

Uganda to Launch National Climate Finance Strategy as Experts Call for Private Sector Investment in Adaptation

Uganda is set to launch its first-ever National Climate Finance Strategy on September 12, 2025, a milestone development in the country’s climate policy architecture, according to remarks made by Dr. Peter Babyenda, Policy Engagement Specialist at the EfD-Mak Centre.

Speaking on behalf of Prof. Edward Bbaale, Director of EfD-Mak Centre, Dr. Babyenda emphasized that climate finance will only be effective if private sector participation is prioritized especially in adaptation-focused investments.

“The private sector will only invest where there’s a return. We must ask how to make climate investments profitable,” Dr. Babyenda said. “Much of our climate financing currently goes toward mitigation, but Uganda’s needs are more aligned with adaptation especially in agriculture, which remains highly vulnerable.”

He cited his recent consultancy with the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), which explored strategies for increasing private sector investment in agricultural adaptation. The findings, expected to be published soon, were presented to various donor communities and could shape future financing models in Uganda.

Dr. Babyenda noted that while mitigation efforts like tree planting are easier to quantify and attract funding, adaptation remains underfunded despite its critical relevance for Uganda. He called for targeted strategies to shift this imbalance.

Highlighting the significance of Prof. Purdon’s new book, “The Political Economy of Climate Finance Effectiveness in Developing Countries”, Dr. Babyenda stressed the importance of understanding political will in determining the success of climate initiatives.

“The experiences from Uganda, Moldova, and Tanzania outlined in the book show that effectiveness is possible where there is political interest. It is not just about institutional capacity it is about commitment,” he said.

He further revealed that Uganda’s Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development has already established a Climate Finance Unit, which is now leading efforts to formalize the upcoming strategy.

In addition to national developments, Dr. Babyenda warned of growing international pressure. He pointed to upcoming European Union regulations, including the Cross-Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which could restrict exports such as coffee unless exporters prove their products are deforestation-free.

“If we don’t have systems like carbon taxes or certified credits, our goods will face fines or lose market access. We must prepare for this global shift,” he warned.

Dr. Babyenda also announced that Makerere and IGC would sign a Memorandum of Understanding, solidifying their continued partnership in climate economics research and policy development.

He closed by encouraging students to engage with the issues raised during the seminar, suggesting they could form the basis of graduate research or postdoctoral work, especially with available funding in climate-related fields.

“Monies are there and these are the issues. Our roads, our crops, our lives are being affected. We need solutions rooted in evidence and action,” he said.

Book Offers Critical Insights for Evidence-Based Policy, Says Reviewer Dr. Byakagaba

Dr. Patrick Byakagaba, a leading Ugandan environmental policy expert and one of the reviewers of the launched book, praised the publication for shedding light on the political economy factors that determine the success or failure of climate finance instruments in developing countries.

Dr. Byakagaba described the work as a timely and evidence-based resource that should inform both policy and practice.

“In my opinion, this book helps us understand the political economy factors that are critical for the effectiveness of the different climate financing instruments,” Dr. Byakagaba said. “It shows what is working, what is not, and what we must do to leverage successful measures.”

He emphasized the book’s relevance not only for academics but also for practitioners and students in economics, environmental science, and natural resource management – many of whom are directly involved in projects funded by international climate finance.

Unlike many theoretical publications, Dr. Byakagaba noted that the book stands out for its field-based evidence drawn from Uganda, Tanzania, and Moldova – countries with shared democratic governance structures but differing levels of engagement in climate finance initiatives.

“This isn’t just theoretical work,” he said. “It gives us a strong theoretical foundation but also backs it up with real-world evidence. That’s exactly what we’ve been missing – research that informs policy in a tangible, practical way.”

He stressed the importance of building on this research to expand the body of evidence needed for crafting effective and locally relevant climate finance strategies.

“If we are going to adopt evidence-based policy instruments, we must continue investing in research that reveals what’s actually working on the ground,” Dr. Byakagaba urged.

The seminar highlighted the growing need to critically evaluate and adapt international climate finance mechanisms to local political and economic realities – a message echoed by both Prof. Purdon and other experts at the event.

Book summary

There is ample evidence that engaging developing countries on climate change mitigation would have significant, positive impacts on global climate efforts. There is much debate, however, on the most effective strategy for unlocking these low cost mitigation opportunities. While the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) emerged as the main climate finance instrument for engaging developing countries under the Kyoto Protocol, the carbon market approach it embodied would largely be replaced by a new array of climate finance instruments based on climate funds.

In The Political Economy of Climate Finance Effectiveness in Developing Countries, Mark Purdon shows that the effectiveness of climate finance instruments to reduce emissions under either strategy has depended on the interaction between prevailing ideas about how to develop a nation’s economy, as well as state interests in various economic sectors.

Based on multiple field visits over a decade in three countries, the author demonstrates that climate finance instruments have been more effectively implemented when the state treats them as vehicles for addressing priority development issues. Climate finance instruments were more consistently and effectively implemented in Uganda and Moldova than Tanzania, despite differences in state capacity between countries. This pattern held for the CDM,as well as subsequent instruments largely based on climate funds such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and other national mitigation actions. Contributing to broader debates on international climate cooperation, Purdon’s findings inform international efforts to support national climate plans and catalyze low-carbon development by emphasizing the importance of domestic politics and the state.

The Political Economy of Climate Finance Effectiveness in Developing Countries:  Carbon Markets, Climate Funds, and the State

By Mark Purdon

Oxford University Press 2024

Purchase Online: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-political-economy-of-climate-finance-effectiveness-in-developing-countries-9780197756836

Jane Anyango is the Communication Officer EfD Uganda.

Jinja, | August 25, 2025

The Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED), in partnership with the Public Investment Management Centre of Excellence (PIM CoE) at Makerere University, has launched a two-week capacity-building training on the Revised Guidelines for Financial Clearance. The training, running from August 25 to September 5, 2025 at Pearl on the Nile Hotel in Jinja, is equipping government officials with critical skills to strengthen fiscal governance and evidence-based policymaking.

In his opening remarks, the Permanent Secretary/Secretary to the Treasury (PS/ST), represented by Commissioner Infrastructure & Social Services Department, Mr. Paul Mwanja, emphasized that the Certificate of Financial Implications (CFI) is more than a procedural step in policy formulation. “It is a vital instrument to ensure that all policy and legislative proposals submitted to Cabinet or Parliament do not undermine Government’s fiscal policy objectives and are aligned to the Development Agenda,” he noted.

The revised CFI Guidelines, which took effect on July 1, 2025, introduce a stronger institutional and analytical framework for financial clearance. They require Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to demonstrate compliance through:

• Undertaking and securing approval of a Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) by the Office of the President.
• Submitting a Statement of Financial Implications (SFI) to MoFPED.
• Conducting consultations within MDAs and Policy Working Groups (PWGs).
• Supporting MoFPED in undertaking an Integrated Regulatory Cost-Benefit Analysis (IRCBA).

According to the PS/ST, these reforms are designed to enhance inter-agency coordination, improve the efficiency and quality of financial clearance, and ensure that public resources deliver maximum value to citizens. “The success of these reforms rests not only on the strength of the guidelines, but also on the competence and commitment of those who implement them. That is why this training is so crucial,” he stressed.

Welcoming participants, Prof. Edward Bbaale, Director of the PIM Centre of Excellence, commended MoFPED’s continued support and the nomination of participants from various MDAs. He described the workshop as timely, coming shortly after the dissemination of the revised CFI Guidelines in June 2025. “These guidelines require robust and evidence-based SFIs before policy proposals and bills can proceed. This workshop will therefore strengthen your ability to prepare such SFIs through the lens of Integrated Regulatory Cost-Benefit Analysis,” Prof. Bbaale said.

Over the two weeks, participants will gain practical skills in:

• Risk analysis to assess uncertainties in policy implementation.
• Cost-effectiveness analysis to compare alternative interventions.
• Developing input-output and financial/economic models.
• Integrating macroeconomic parameters in policy evaluation.
• Preparing Statements of Financial Implications that inspire confidence in decision-making.

The training also builds on the PIM CoE’s broader mandate of research, outreach, and advisory services. The Centre has previously revised the Development Committee guidelines, assessed project performance since NDP I, and hosted the second Public Investment Management Conference earlier this month focusing on implementation challenges in public investment. Both MoFPED and Makerere University reaffirmed their commitment to continuous capacity building to ensure that Uganda’s public finance architecture remains responsive, efficient, and aligned with long-term national development aspirations.