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Mak-RIF Plugs Tax Education Gaps in Uganda’s Informal Sector

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According to statistics from the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) Annual Data Book 2018/19, at 12.44%, Uganda’s average tax to GDP ratio over the last five years is one of the lowest in the region, and far below the sub-Saharan Africa average of 16%. Simply put, the total tax collected by URA has on average over the past five years accounted for only 12.44% of the size of Uganda’s economy. Comparatively, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi recorded average tax to GDP ratios of 16.10%, 12.83%, 15.80% and 13.55% respectively over the same period.

This should not come as a surprise, given that 2016 statistics from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) indicated that approximately 98% of Uganda’s population of working age (14-64) were engaged in the informal sector. The title of a 2017 article published by the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) based on the same statistics put it aptly, “Informality Growing Faster than Formality”.

Expanding the tax base by tapping into semi-formal economic activities is going to be one of the major focus areas in the Third National Development Plan (NDPIII) 2020/21-2024/25. It is against this background that researchers in the College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS) led by the Principal, Dr. Eria Hisali conducted a study that sought to understand which gaps exist in tax education and how these gaps can be packaged into improving compliance and subsequently broadening the tax base in Uganda.

Dr. Eria Hisali, Principal of College of Business and Management Studies (CoBAMS) as well as Principal Investigator (PI) of the project.

Funded by the Government of Uganda through the Makerere University Research and Innovations Fund (Mak-RIF) the research undertaken in 2020 targeted over 500 respondents with particular focus on the informal sector. In addition to the Principal Investigator (PI) Dr. Eria Hisali, the research team consisted of Dr. Ismail Kintu, Dr. Fred Bateganya, Ms. Marion Atukunda, Ms. Winfred Nalwoga, Mr. Nicholas Musoke, Mr. Patrick Lumala and Dr. Kagarura Willy.

Speaking at the research dissemination workshop held on 10th February 2021 in the School of Business Conference Room, Dr. Hisali shared that “The research advocates for a comprehensive review of Uganda Revenue Authority’s tax education programme with focus on linking tax collection to better service delivery,”

The research team’s interaction with members of the informal sector revealed that tax education being provided is not well suited to the informal sector. “For instance, tax exhibitions, messages on websites and brochures do not provide the best approach to reach out to the informal sector.  The informal sector needs more engagement with emphasis on field visits and face-to-face interaction,” explained Dr. Hisali.

Mr. Everest Kayondo, Chairperson – Kampala City Traders Association (KACITA)contributing to the discussion.

The Principal Investigator however pointed to some quick wins that could be adopted as URA evaluates and updates its tax education programme. He noted that approximately UGX 6 Trillion had been allocated to livelihood programmes by the Government of Uganda between the 2018/19 and current financial years. “How can tax education be included as part of the package that these Government livelihood programmes contain? I think we could see some quick wins because as recipients benefit from livelihood programmes, they could be asked to register as tax payers.”

Findings shared by the research team further revealed a limited coverage of tax education. Whereas 53% had been told or heard about the importance of paying taxes, only 40% had received education on how to register for taxes while only 38% had heard about filing tax returns. Furthermore, only 32% had received tax education on fines and penalties, 29% on the benefits of paying taxes and only 16% on audits and assessments.

Nevertheless, some of the registered respondents who admitted to not paying taxes cited low tax morale as well as poor service delivery and unfairness as reasons for their noncompliance. Researchers further took note of the limited personal touch with potential taxpayers in the informal sector, disconnect between the current taxpayer education modality and unique features of the informal sector, as well as the cost implications and overly technical language in existing modalities as some of the reasons for nonpayment of taxes.

The Study concluded that:

  • Majority of the respondents had limited or no knowledge about the Tax Identification Number (TIN), a critical requirement for tax payment. More than half of respondents did not know how to acquire a TIN.
  • Actors in the informal sector cannot differentiate between taxes paid to URA and those paid to local governments and other bodies that bring together operators.
  • Most respondents did not know how to formalize their business/enterprise, another important factor for tax registration.
  • There exists some form of registration of informal businesses/enterprises upon which formalization can build.
  • The URA tax education campaigns messaging and targeting has left out some potential tax payers. Messaging and targeting of tax education is key to realizing intended results of growing the tax base and ultimately the tax revenues.
Mr. Nicholas Musoke represented the Assistant Commissioner Research Planning and Development.

The Research Dissemination attracted participants from URA, Kampala City Traders Association (KACITA), Academia, Private Sector, Civil Society, the Media, Mak-RIF Grants Management Committee (GMC) as well as staff and students from Makerere University.

Painting a picture on the new ideas and innovations to foster a taxpaying culture through tax education, URA’s Mr. Nicholas Musoke who represented the Assistant Commissioner Research Planning and Development-Ms. Milly Nalukwago, noted that whereas Uganda’s population is approximately 45.7million, the taxpayer register stands at only 1.59million. Approximately 953,000 of those registered are active taxpayers, while 906 URA clients pay 80% of the tax. The informal sector currently contributes less than 1% (0.03%) of tax collected.

To help achieve this, URA plans to roll out the AEN strategy. AEN stands for Awareness, Empower and Nurture. Under Awareness, URA intends to intentionally engage the public on tax laws, roles, rights, obligations and opportunities relating to tax. Under Empower, URA will guide taxpayers on their rights as well as how and when to fulfil their tax obligations, while under Nurture, the Authority will set up and support mechanisms to cultivate and maintain a taxpaying culture.

Dr. John Mutenyo represented the Chairperson of MakRIF Grant Management Committee

Dr. John Mutenyo who represented the Chairperson of MakRIF GMC- Prof. William Bazeyo in his address commended the Government of Uganda for prioritizing research at Makerere University. “In phase One of Mak-RIF, the Government committed UGX 30billion and this was one of the research projects that
was funded under that phase. To date, over 500 competitive research grants have been supported.”

Prof. Bazeyo congratulated Dr. Hisali and the entire research team for undertaking a study geared towards strengthening the implementation of NDPIII and supporting the development of Uganda. “Most importantly, I would like to thank Dr. Hisali and the team for having a collaborative study that involved the key stakeholders such as URA. These are the stakeholders that are going to make it easy to buy into and implement the outcomes of this research.”

Commenting on the findings, the other stakeholders at the research dissemination workshop pointed out the need to embark on trust building programmes with the taxpayer. They equally emphasised the need to consider reducing the load on the tax payer.  The taxpayer in Uganda is subject to taxes such as;
Value Added Tax (VAT), Pay As You Earn (PAYE), Customs, Demurrage, Income Tax, Withholding Tax, Excise Duty, Over-The-Top (OTT)/Social Media Tax among others.

Article by Public Relations Office

Mark Wamai

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Celebrating Academic Excellence: CoBAMS Presents 975 Graduands at Mak 76th Graduation Ceremony

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CoBAMS PhD graduands at the 76th graduation Ceremony on 26th February 2026. 76th Graduation Ceremony, Day 3, College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS). Commencement Speaker-Dr. Patricia Adongo Ojangole, Managing Director, Uganda Development Bank Limited. 26th February 2026, Freedom Square, Makerere University, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.

26th February 2026– The third day of Makerere University’s 76th Graduation Ceremony, held on 26th February 2026, underscored the University’s central role in shaping economic thought, business leadership, and public policy in Uganda and beyond. On this day, the College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS) together with Makerere University Business School (MUBS) presented their graduands for the conferment of degrees and award of diplomas.

CoBAMS Graduation Statistics

The Principal of CoBAMS, Prof. Edward Bbaale reading the names of PhD Graduands at the 76th Graduation Ceremony. 76th Graduation Ceremony, Day 3, College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS). Commencement Speaker-Dr. Patricia Adongo Ojangole, Managing Director, Uganda Development Bank Limited. 26th February 2026, Freedom Square, Makerere University, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.
The Principal of CoBAMS, Prof. Edward Bbaale reading the names of PhD Graduands at the 76th Graduation Ceremony.

Across the University, a total of 9,295 graduands will be presented during the 76th graduation ceremony (24th to 27th February 2026). The College of Business and Management Sciences presented 975 graduands, comprising 14 Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) degrees, 334 Master’s degrees, 2 Postgraduate Diplomas, and 625 Bachelor’s degrees. This robust academic profile reflects the College’s sustained investment in advanced research, graduate training, and industry-relevant programmes designed to equip graduates with analytical competence, ethical grounding, and leadership capacity required to contribute meaningfully to economic transformation, institutional development, and enterprise growth at national, regional, and global levels.

Prof. Nawangwe emphasized that CoBAMS remains a key pillar in advancing the University’s research agenda. Through strategic partnerships with government ministries, the business community, and the private sector, the College has produced over 60 high-quality research outputs under the CoBAMS Working Paper Series, many of which have been published in internationally recognized peer-reviewed journals. These outputs he said are aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Uganda’s 10-fold National Economic Growth Strategy, and the University’s Strategic Plan, reinforcing CoBAMS’ role in driving evidence-based development.

The Vice Chancellor commended the College for its five dynamic research centres—Entrepreneurship and Innovation; Statistics and Demography; Public Investment Management; the Environment for Development Initiative; and the Centre of Excellence for Africa Climate-Sensitive Macroeconomic Modelling—which collectively form the backbone of the College’s research enterprise. Through these centres, he noted CoBAMS continues to advance high-level scholarship, foster interdisciplinary collaboration, and deepen policy engagement, firmly positioning itself at the forefront of national and regional economic discourse.

In his message to the graduands, Prof. Nawangwe tasked them to become job creators, who are ready to turn challenges into opportunities. He encouraged them to remain proud ambassadors of Makerere University, upholding integrity and excellence, and to utilize their knowledge to transform communities and nations.

“You are all graduating with disciplines that are needed by society. We have equipped you with the knowledge and skills that will make you employable or create your own businesses and employ others. Do not despair. If you cannot find employment, reflect on the immense opportunities around you and raise to the occasion as an entrepreneur,” Prof. Nawangwe stated.

The Guest of Honour, Hon. Janet Kataaha Museveni, First Lady and Minister of Education & Sports, praised Makerere University for its transformative impact on lives and Uganda’s future. 76th Graduation Ceremony, Day 3, College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS). Commencement Speaker-Dr. Patricia Adongo Ojangole, Managing Director, Uganda Development Bank Limited. 26th February 2026, Freedom Square, Makerere University, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.
The Guest of Honour, Hon. Janet Kataaha Museveni, First Lady and Minister of Education & Sports, praised Makerere University for its transformative impact on lives and Uganda’s future.

Addressing the congregation, the Guest of Honour, Hon. Janet Kataaha Museveni, First Lady and Minister of Education and Sports commended Makerere University for its pivotal role in transforming lives and shaping Uganda’s future. She congratulated the graduands upon reaching a significant academic milestone and reflected on the broader purpose of higher education in developing both knowledge and character.

She highlighted the success of the Emerging Leaders Programme, launched at Makerere University as a deliberate initiative to cultivate a generation of leaders grounded in values, integrity, and service. Founded on the conviction that higher education must shape both mind and character, the programme equips young people to navigate real-world challenges. She noted that 20 graduates from the inaugural cohort of the Emerging Leaders Programme were being celebrated at the 76th graduation.

“We recognised that our young people face real challenges such as moral decay, violence, addiction, exploitation and sometimes a loss of purpose and direction. The Emerging Leaders Programme was a deliberate commitment to raise a generation of leaders grounded in values, integrity and service to others. Today, 20 graduates represent the early visible fruit of that vision. They have deliberately chosen to build their lives on a foundation of strong moral values and servant leadership,” the Minister said.

The Minister urged graduands to view their achievements not as an end, but as a commissioning. She called upon them to lead with courage, humility, and responsibility, emphasizing that the world needs graduates who embody not just skills and knowledge, but character, integrity, and service. She reminded graduates that as they step into society, they carry the promise of a new Uganda, one where talent, ambition, and knowledge are matched by integrity, purpose, and service,” she exhorted, celebrating the role of higher education in nurturing both excellence and character.

76th Graduation Ceremony, Day 3, College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS). Commencement Speaker-Dr. Patricia Adongo Ojangole, Managing Director, Uganda Development Bank Limited. 26th February 2026, Freedom Square, Makerere University, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.
The commencement speaker, Dr. Patricia Ojangole, Managing Director of Uganda Development Bank addressing the 76th Makerere University congregation.

Delivering the commencement address, Dr. Patricia Ojangole, Managing Director of Uganda Development Bank and a proud Makerere University alumnus, lauded the University for equipping graduates with a strong intellectual foundation and the confidence to navigate the complexities of the modern world. She recognized the sacrifices of parents, guardians, and relatives, noting that behind every graduand lies a story of perseverance, encouragement, and unwavering support.

Dr. Ojangole urged the graduands to look beyond traditional employment, highlighting the vast opportunities for entrepreneurship and innovation in today’s digitally connected and globally integrated Uganda. She reminded them that the skills, exposure, and knowledge they possess, position them to create solutions, build enterprises, and drive economic and social transformation.

She emphasized lifelong learning, adaptability, and the cultivation of emotional intelligence and leadership as essential tools for sustained success, noting that the most effective leaders inspire and empower others. Above all, she urged the graduates to guard their integrity, develop strong networks, and remain resilient in the face of setbacks, framing every challenge as an opportunity to strengthen character.

“Learning does not end with this degree. The world of work is constantly evolving—technology advances, markets shift, and customer needs change. Those who stop learning quickly fall behind. Graduates must develop skills in artificial intelligence, data literacy, analytical thinking, forecasting, and strategic planning, while also cultivating emotional intelligence and leadership. These abilities are essential in the 21st-century workplace, where people follow leaders who inspire. Lifelong learning, adaptability, curiosity, and a willingness to embrace change are no longer optional—they are the new currency of corporate and business success,” she submitted.

The Chancellor Makerere university, Hon. Dr. Crispus Kiyonga presenting his remarks at the 76th congregation. 76th Graduation Ceremony, Day 3, College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS). Commencement Speaker-Dr. Patricia Adongo Ojangole, Managing Director, Uganda Development Bank Limited. 26th February 2026, Freedom Square, Makerere University, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.
The Chancellor Makerere University, Hon. Dr. Crispus Kiyonga presenting his remarks at the 76th congregation.

The Makerere University Chancellor, Dr. Crispus Kiyonga urged graduates to view their time at Makerere not only as an academic journey, but as an opportunity to engage with the world around them. He encouraged them to identify opportunities within their communities and the nation at large, highlighting that while some may secure government or private sector jobs, others will need to create their own paths through entrepreneurship.

“Beyond pursuing your courses, seize the opportunities at the university to broaden your knowledge of the world, your country, and the communities in which you live. Be attentive to the opportunities around you—those you can leverage to engage in meaningful and viable activities that bring prosperity,” the Chancellor advised.

The Chancellor Makerere university, confers the Doctor of Letters (Honoris Causa), of Makerere University upon Dr. Japheth Buleetwa Katto. 76th Graduation Ceremony, Day 3, College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS). Commencement Speaker-Dr. Patricia Adongo Ojangole, Managing Director, Uganda Development Bank Limited. 26th February 2026, Freedom Square, Makerere University, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.
The Chancellor Makerere University, confers the Doctor of Letters (Honoris Causa), of Makerere University upon Dr. Japheth Buleetwa Katto.

A key highlight of the day was the conferment of the Doctor of Letters (Honoris Causa), of Makerere University upon Dr. Japheth Buleetwa Katto, recognizing him as an Honorary Scholar of Makerere University. A distinguished professional with remarkable achievements, Dr. Katto has made significant contributions to Uganda, the East African region, and beyond, particularly in advancing the accountancy discipline and strengthening the capital markets industry. His work has played a transformative role in Uganda’s social and economic development while also influencing the accountancy profession on a global scale.

Dr. Japheth Buleetwa Katto delivering his acceptance speech for the Doctor of Letters (Honoris Causa) at the 76th graduation. 76th Graduation Ceremony, Day 3, College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS). Commencement Speaker-Dr. Patricia Adongo Ojangole, Managing Director, Uganda Development Bank Limited. 26th February 2026, Freedom Square, Makerere University, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.
Dr. Japheth Buleetwa Katto delivering his acceptance speech for the Doctor of Letters (Honoris Causa) at the 76th graduation.

Accepting the Honorary Doctorate Doctorate, Mr. Japheth Buleetwa Katto expressed deep gratitude to Makerere University and those who supported his journey. Reflecting on fifty years in corporate governance and finance, he emphasized a key lesson: integrity, diligence, and ethical leadership are always noticed, and the rewards of sowing excellence will inevitably follow, even if it takes decades.

“This recognition comes as a surprise and brings with it an important lesson, I wish to share with everyone here: people are always watching. They notice when you choose integrity over shortcuts, when you champion good governance even when it is unpopular. They see not only the good, but also the bad and the ugly. We must never forget the eternal law of the harvest: we reap what we sow. If you sow excellence, diligence, and ethics, the harvest—though it may take decades—will always find you,” Dr. Katto said.

Addressing the graduands, Mr. Japheth Buleetwa Katto urged them to embrace the unexpected, recognize that integrity is their greatest strength, and harness the power of networking. He reflected on his own journey, crediting teachers, mentors, colleagues, and family for their support, and encouraged the new graduates to always strive to make a positive impact in everything they do.

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Ritah Namisango
Ritah Namisango

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Parliament, MoFPD and Makerere Launch Five-Day Training on Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling to Strengthen Fiscal Oversight

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Prof. Edward Bbaale (Centre) with participants at the commencement of training. Parliament of Uganda, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development and Public Investment Management (PIM) Centre of Excellence at Makerere University launch five-day intensive training programme on Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling to strengthen fiscal governance and enhancing evidence-based decision-making, February 2026, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.

By Wilber Tumutegyereize

In a significant step toward strengthening fiscal governance and enhancing evidence-based decision-making, the Parliament of Uganda, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development and Makerere University, has launched a five-day intensive training programme on Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling.

The training brings together staff of the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) for a comprehensive capacity-building programme designed to deepen their analytical expertise in assessing national budgets, evaluating fiscal policy options, and generating independent, data-driven advice for Members of Parliament. The initiative forms part of a broader institutional strategy to reinforce Parliament’s oversight role and ensure that national budgeting processes are aligned with Uganda’s development priorities as articulated in the National Development Plan and Parliament’s Strategic Plan.

Strengthening Evidence-Based Fiscal Oversight

Speaking at the opening session on behalf of the Manager of the Public Investment Management (PIM) Centre of Excellence at Makerere University, Dr. Peter Babyenda emphasized that the increasing complexity of Uganda’s fiscal environment demands stronger analytical capacity within Parliament.

“This training comes at a critical time when the demands on Parliament to undertake rigorous scrutiny of fiscal and economic policy have never been greater,” Dr. Babyenda stated.

Dr. Peter Babyenda. Parliament of Uganda, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development and Public Investment Management (PIM) Centre of Excellence at Makerere University launch five-day intensive training programme on Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling to strengthen fiscal governance and enhancing evidence-based decision-making, February 2026, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.

He noted that Parliament’s constitutional mandate—to legislate, appropriate public funds, and oversee government expenditure—requires objective, independent, and technically sound economic analysis. The Parliamentary Budget Office plays a central role in fulfilling this mandate by providing Members of Parliament with timely assessments of revenue projections, expenditure allocations, public debt sustainability, and macroeconomic trends.

Dr. Babyenda explained that the Government’s Integrated Macroeconomic Model provides a holistic framework for understanding the interconnections between economic growth, fiscal policy, public investment, inflation, debt dynamics, and household welfare. By incorporating this model into parliamentary analysis, the PBO will be better positioned to simulate alternative policy scenarios and assess their short- and long-term implications.

Institutional Priorities

Mr. Henry Waiswa, Deputy Clerk to Parliament in charge of Corporate Affairs, contextualized the training within Parliament’s broader institutional reform agenda. He underscored Parliament’s constitutional responsibility to legislate, allocate resources, and oversee the management of public finances.

“Since its establishment under the Budget Act and its anchoring under the Administration of Parliament Act, the Parliamentary Budget Office has become a cornerstone of evidence-based fiscal oversight,” Mr. Waiswa noted.

He observed that Uganda’s public financial management landscape has become increasingly complex, with evolving fiscal pressures, development financing needs, and global economic uncertainties. In such an environment, Parliament must not only examine headline budget figures but also anticipate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of policy decisions on households, businesses, and vulnerable communities.

Participants follow proceedings. Parliament of Uganda, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development and Public Investment Management (PIM) Centre of Excellence at Makerere University launch five-day intensive training programme on Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling to strengthen fiscal governance and enhancing evidence-based decision-making, February 2026, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.
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Mr. Waiswa further expressed appreciation to the Ministry of Finance, Makerere University, and the Resource Enhancement and Accountability Programme (REAP) for their technical and financial support in designing and facilitating the training.

Academic Expertise and Analytical Rigor

Professor Edward Bbaale, Director of the PIM Centre of Excellence at Makerere University, highlighted the critical role of academia in strengthening public sector institutions. He emphasized that collaboration between Parliament, the Ministry of Finance, and Makerere University reflects a shared commitment to improving the quality of fiscal governance.

“When our key public institutions work together, we enhance the credibility of economic management and ensure that policy decisions are informed by rigorous analysis,” Professor Bbaale said.

He explained that Integrated Macroeconomic Models combine key economic indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), government revenue and expenditure, inflation, debt, investment, and external balances, into a unified analytical framework. These models enable analysts to conduct “what-if” simulations, test policy assumptions, and evaluate trade-offs between competing fiscal priorities.

Prof. Edward Bbaale. Parliament of Uganda, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development and Public Investment Management (PIM) Centre of Excellence at Makerere University launch five-day intensive training programme on Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling to strengthen fiscal governance and enhancing evidence-based decision-making, February 2026, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.
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Professor Bbaale urged participants to fully utilize the five-day training to strengthen their technical proficiency and contribute meaningfully to Parliament’s oversight function.

Practical Application and Long-Term Impact

The training programme emphasizes hands-on learning, allowing participants to work directly with the Integrated Macroeconomic Model. Through practical exercises, PBO staff will learn how to:

  • Simulate alternative fiscal and macroeconomic scenarios.
  • Assess revenue and expenditure implications of policy proposals.
  • Evaluate public debt sustainability and fiscal risks.
  • Examine distributional impacts on poverty, inequality, and household welfare.
  • Develop evidence-based policy briefs for Members of Parliament.

Dr. Babyenda reiterated that the value of the training lies in its practical application.

“The ultimate measure of success will be how effectively participants apply these tools to real parliamentary analysis,” he said. “It is through this application that Parliament can maintain rigorous oversight over public finances.”

A Strategic Investment in Institutional Capacity

By institutionalizing the use of Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling within the Parliamentary Budget Office, Uganda is making a strategic investment in sustainable institutional capacity. The initiative ensures that parliamentary analysts are trained using the same analytical frameworks applied in national fiscal planning, thereby reinforcing both technical quality and independence in budget scrutiny.

As Uganda navigates evolving economic challenges, the strengthened capacity of the PBO will enable Parliament to critically evaluate budget proposals, anticipate policy outcomes, and provide informed, transparent, and accountable oversight of public resources.

The five-day Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling training thus represents a pivotal milestone in advancing Uganda’s commitment to sound fiscal management, democratic governance, and evidence-based policymaking.

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Climate variability found to shape malaria trends in Yumbe District

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Climate variability and malaria incidence trends in Yumbe District, West Nile Sub-region of Uganda (2017–2021), by Lesley Rose Ninsiima, Rogers Musiitwa, Zaitune Nanyunja, James Muleme, Chris Maasaba, Twahiri Anule, and David Musoke, published February 2026 in Malaria Journal through Springer Nature Link by Makerere University School of Public Health, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.

A new study led by scientists from Makerere University School of Public Health has demonstrated that short-term climate variability plays a significant role in malaria transmission in Yumbe District, West Nile sub-region of Uganda. The study, Climate variability and malaria incidence trends in Yumbe District, West Nile Sub-region of Uganda (2017–2021), by Lesley Rose Ninsiima, Rogers Musiitwa, Zaitune Nanyunja, James Muleme, Chris Maasaba, Twahiri Anule, and David Musoke, was published in February 2026 in Malaria Journal through Springer Nature Link.

Today, malaria remains a major public health burden in Uganda, where environmental conditions support sustained transmission. Despite persistent outbreaks in northern Uganda, limited local evidence exists on how the changing climate patterns influence malaria trends. This study addressed that gap by examining five years of malaria surveillance data alongside district-level rainfall and temperature records.

Map showing the location of Yumbe District (outlined in red) in the West Nile sub-region of north-western Uganda, indicating the study area. Adapted from Relevance of Indigenous Knowledge in Sustainable Management of Forest Resources in the 21st Century Uganda. Climate variability and malaria incidence trends in Yumbe District, West Nile Sub-region of Uganda (2017–2021), by Lesley Rose Ninsiima, Rogers Musiitwa, Zaitune Nanyunja, James Muleme, Chris Maasaba, Twahiri Anule, and David Musoke, published February 2026 in Malaria Journal through Springer Nature Link by Makerere University School of Public Health, Kampala Uganda, East Africa.
Map showing the location of Yumbe District (outlined in red) in the West Nile sub-region of north-western Uganda, indicating the study area. Adapted from Relevance of Indigenous Knowledge in Sustainable Management of Forest Resources in the 21st Century Uganda.

Using routine health facility reports from the District Health Information System (DHIS) and climate data from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), the researchers applied time-series analysis to assess seasonal patterns and delayed climate effects on malaria incidence. Between 2017 and 2021, Yumbe District recorded 2,066,711 malaria cases, with transmission showing clear seasonal peaks between May and July and September and November, aligning with rainy periods.

Their analysis showed that rainfall was the strongest climatic driver of malaria transmission. Increased rainfall was associated with higher malaria cases approximately one month later, reflecting the time needed for mosquito breeding and transmission cycles. In contrast, higher minimum temperatures were linked to reduced malaria incidence, while maximum temperature showed no significant effect. Together, rainfall and minimum temperature explained a substantial proportion of variation in malaria cases, highlighting malaria’s sensitivity to short-term climate fluctuations.

The study findings underscore the value of integrating climate information into malaria surveillance and early warning systems to anticipate transmission peaks and guide timely interventions. Strengthening collaboration between public health and meteorological sectors, the researchers argue, could improve preparedness and support climate-informed malaria control strategies in high-burden settings.

Further details: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-026-05824-0

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John Okeya

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