At a press conference held today Tuesday 16th June 2020, a research team led by Makerere University presented a ‘Mathematical Model of COVID-19 dynamics in Uganda: Using a locally parameterized system to enhance intervention policies’. The aim of the research from which the model is developed was to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Uganda and use the results to provide comprehensive forecast of the disease’ trends. The model endeavours to provide appropriate evidence-based policy support to government on the timing and nature of intervention measures.
The research team that worked on the study is led by Prof. Joseph Y.T. Mugisha, a Professor of Biomathematics (Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences). Professor Mugisha is also the Principal of the College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University. Other members of the team are: Dr. Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba (Makerere University), Dr. Joseph Ssebuliba (Makerere University) Dr. Amos Ssematimba (Gulu University), and Dr. Cliff Richard Kikawa (Kabale University).
The Vice Chancellor – Makerere University, Professor Barnabas Nawangwe and the Deputy Vice Chancellor –Academic Affairs, Associate Professor Umar Kakumba attended the press conference.
In his remarks, Professor Nawangwe welcomed the press to Makerere University thanking them for informing the public about the research and innovations developed by staff and students of Makerere University. He said ‘as we all are aware, COVID-I9 is a big global challenge and Makerere as a lead research institution is working to provide solutions to the pandemic at the national, regional and global levels with our partners’. He reiterated his appreciation of the Government of Uganda for providing funds through the Makerere Research and Innovation Fund that enabled the team to undertake the study presented.
Study Conclusion
The findings of this study show that the immediately implemented measures by the Government of Uganda averted thousands of cases that would have overstretched the health system within a couple of months. Without significantly altering the current situation, measures on partial lockdowns and use of masks are insufficient to stop COVID-19 and as such the disease will remain endemic in the population. In all the assessed scenarios the disease would be wiped out in the case where there are no infected arrivals beyond the first 58 days and in this case the disease would be wiped out within 200 days.
With the worrying situation of increased reported cases in our neighbouring countries, the impact of Uganda’s interventions would be greatly affected as results show that doubling the imported cases would almost triple both the maximum number of hospitalized individuals and the number of undetected cases.
Screening of truck drivers faces a challenge of reagent limitation, imperfect test accuracy, arrival of asymptomatic and latently infected individuals that may pass as false negatives during screening as well as the porosity of some of the national borders. Thus, adoption of alternative less-risky means of essential cargo delivery (e.g., by rail and ship services) combined with quarantining of all entrants for a duration not shorter than the incubation period should be enforced.
Amidst challenges of social-economic impact of COVID-19, agitation of lifting lockdown may downplay the impact of intervention measures and the study findings highlight the importance of optimal timing and magnitude of lockdown easing. Effectively phased-out ease of lockdown needs to be well studied and executed to avoid the possibility of a second wave.
Study Recommendations
1. It is not advisable to eased lockdown by releasing 50% of susceptible population for the Ugandan situation with current 3200 hospital beds and not all are of ICU-like capacity, because within 100 days the COVID-19 related hospitalization demand would have already overwhelmed the current resources.
2. Since the consequences of hospital acquired infections go beyond merely increasing the number of cases, their mitigation should be given high priority.
3. Lifted to a 75% level, the yet-to-be detected cases in the community have potential to start a second and more disastrous epidemic wave. However, with enhanced surveillance and contact tracing, gradual easing by releasing smaller percentages of susceptible individuals from lockdown can still be safely executed sooner than the optimum 210 days for up to 75% susceptible level.
4. The issue of handling truck drivers mingling at service and testing centres at border crossings should be reinforced – preferably, government should set up treatment and isolation facilities as close as possible to the testing border points not to overwhelmed the existing regional facilities, optimize scarce handling resources and also to minimize stigma and community discontent. This would in addition reduce the time frontline workers are exposed to the risk of infection amidst lack of well-equipped ambulances
5. Since latently infected individuals can only be detected after latent period, effort should be put on obtaining information on where the drivers have been few days before arrival to understand the risk of admitting persons from high risk regions of neighbouring countries. The risk of imported cases is not only posed by those who test positive but also due to false negatives and latently infected individuals.
Uganda must strengthen the systems that move university research beyond prototypes and publications into policies, public services, products and enterprises that improve people’s lives, Hon. Eng. Jonard Asiimwe Akiiki, Minister in charge of Science, Technology and Innovation in the Office of the President (STI-OP), has said.
He made the call during a visit to Makerere University School of Public Health on Wednesday, 16 September 2026, as part of his wider engagement with Makerere University’s research and innovation ecosystem. Accompanied by University Management, led by Vice-Chancellor Prof. Barnabas Nawangwe, the Minister met researchers presenting work across major public health priorities before touring the School’s new building.
Hon. Eng. Asiimwe linked the challenge to Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy, which targets expanding the country’s GDP from nearly USD 50 billion in 2023 to USD 500 billion by 2040. He argued that science, technology and innovation must help deliver that ambition by raising productivity, improving public services and creating viable enterprises.
Hon. Eng. Jonard Asiimwe Akiiki delivers remarks during his visit to MakSPH on 16 September 2026, calling for stronger systems to move university research into wider use.
“The Tenfold Growth Strategy will not be achieved by one particular project alone,” he stated. “It will be achieved when science, technology and innovation repeatedly raise the productivity and incomes of millions of ordinary people.”
The work presented at MakSPH showed how public health research can contribute to that ambition by shaping clinical guidance and national policy, strengthening systems that improve services and protect population health, and advancing technologies towards wider testing and adoption.
One such example was the PURPOSE 1 study, a 2022–2024 trial that evaluated Gilead Sciences’ twice-yearly injectable lenacapavir for HIV prevention among adolescent girls and young women. Prof. Noah Kiwanuka served as Site Principal Investigator for MakSPH’s work at Makerere-Kalangala site through the UVRI-IAVI collaboration. The trial recorded no HIV infections among participants who received lenacapavir, contributing evidence that informed regulatory decisions and WHO’s 2025 recommendation of the drug as an additional HIV prevention option.
Prof. Noah Kiwanuka briefs Hon. Eng. Jonard Asiimwe Akiiki and VC Prof. Barnabas Nawangwe during the MakSPH research exhibition.
In maternal and newborn health, MakSPH’s Centre of Excellence for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health recently partnered with St. Francis Hospital Nsambya to establish Uganda’s first human milk bank and generate evidence on the safe use of pasteurised donor milk. The work has now contributed to Uganda’s first National Donor Human Milk Guidelines and provides a model that other hospitals could adopt.
The exhibition also showed how university expertise can strengthen national systems. Through the Monitoring and Evaluation Technical Support (METS) Programme, MakSPH worked with the Ministry of Health for more than 15 years to develop and support platforms for health reporting, disease surveillance and programme management. The U.S. CDC funded the programme through PEPFAR, providing US$103.8 million across three five-year grants. In March 2026, MakSPH transitioned 16 digital health systems developed through METS, together with their supporting infrastructure, to Ministry of Health stewardship.
Makerere University School of Public Health Dean Prof. Rhoda Wanyenze said the School embeds teaching and research within communities, health facilities and public institutions through its “Public Health School Without Walls” model, designing research around the problems it must address and the value it can create.
MakSPH Dean Prof. Rhoda Wanyenze emphasises that research translation must begin at design and connect scientific evidence to health, societal and economic outcomes.
“For us, translation is not alien. It is where we start when designing our research,” Prof. Wanyenze noted. “We examine what drives ill health and what we can do to solve the problem. As we consider translation and commercialisation, we must define how scientific impact grows into societal impact and track that contribution through health outcomes and economic growth.”
That approach informs VectorCam, an artificial intelligence-enabled smartphone tool that MakSPH is evaluating in Mayuge and Adjumani districts. It enables community health workers to identify mosquitoes by species, sex and feeding status, generating faster data for malaria-control decisions. Prof. Peter Waiswa serves as Uganda Principal Investigator for the Gates Foundation-funded project, which MakSPH implements with Johns Hopkins University. The partners plan to extend it to 22 districts and assess its performance under routine conditions in 12.
Watch how VectorCam uses a smartphone and artificial intelligence to identify mosquitoes and strengthen malaria surveillance:
The School’s national survey work also demonstrates local capacity to generate evidence for policy. Uganda launched the 2024–2025 Uganda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (UPHIA) in May 2025 with support from the U.S. Government and technical leadership from MakSPH. The Ministry of Health expects to release the findings on 1 October 2026, providing updated evidence on HIV prevalence, new infections, viral suppression, service coverage and associated risk behaviours to guide the country’s future HIV response.
The School also led Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) Uganda, a nationally representative platform that generated recurring evidence on contraceptive use, access and service quality. Working with the Ministry of Health and other partners, it enabled Uganda to track change, identify persistent gaps and guide family-planning policy and investment.
MakSPH Deputy Dean and PMA Uganda Principal Investigator Prof. Frederick Makumbi briefs Hon. Eng. Jonard Asiimwe Akiiki and VC Prof. Barnabas Nawangwe on how PMA evidence informs family-planning policy and investment.
This combination of evidence generation and local capacity gives practical expression to Makerere University’s Strategic Plan 2025–2030, launched in July 2026, which seeks to build a sustainable, research-led and responsive university. During a visit to MakSPH on 18 June 2026, Prof. Barnabas Nawangwe described the School as a model of that institutional direction.
“I think the School of Public Health is the perfect example of what a research-led unit should be,” Prof. Nawangwe said. “You are really showing the way for the rest of the University and what we should be as a research-led university.”
VC Prof. Barnabas Nawangwe highlights Makerere University’s research contribution to national development and calls for sustained investment to expand its impact.
The work supports priorities under Uganda’s Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV), including stronger health research, innovation and uptake of locally generated solutions. Speaking at a public dialogue on health financing jointly organised by MakSPH and partners in April 2026, Prof. Nawangwe said Makerere attracts more than UGX 1 trillion into Uganda annually through research and urged the Government to increase support for the University’s national role.
Today, the Government allocates about UGX 25 billion annually through theMakerere University Research and Innovations Fund (Mak-RIF) to support research and innovation across Makerere. Beyond Mak-RIF, it recently contributed UGX 14 billion to the construction of the new MakSPH building. Work began in 2020 and remains on course for completion in December 2026.
The facility will expand space for teaching, research, laboratories and collaboration. The School’s next infrastructure priority is a specialised environmental health laboratory to investigate health risks associated with air, water, food and other environmental exposures.
The new MakSPH building in August 2026, nearing completion with UGX 14 billion in Government support.
Through STI-OP, the Government also supports the NUTRIMEAL Project. Dr Barbara Eva Kirunda leads the project, which brings together MakSPH and Makerere University’s School of Food Technology, Nutrition and Bioengineering to develop a non-dairy probiotic beverage from locally available finger millet and beetroot for people living with HIV. The team will test its safety and effects on immune and nutritional outcomes among 432 participants.
Hon. Eng. Asiimwe placed that support within a longer pathway from research to use. He said developing and testing an innovation represent only part of the journey and called for stronger systems to move viable innovations into policy, public services, products and enterprises.
Hon. Eng. Jonard Asiimwe Akiiki arrives at MakSPH with Dean Prof. Rhoda Wanyenze for an engagement focused on moving viable research into policy, public services, products and enterprises.
“Every innovation should be able to name its user, define the problem it solves and show the value it creates,” he said. “We should move beyond saying, ‘We developed a prototype,’ to showing who uses it, who manufactures it, how it reaches the market and how it will grow.”
Reaching that point requires the capacity to generate and test evidence, alongside collaboration among universities, government and industry in validation, standards, intellectual property, financing, manufacturing, procurement and public trust.
Public health research creates value not only through commercial products but also evidence that changes policy, strengthens surveillance, improves clinical practice and guides national programmes. The challenge now is to move the strongest research into use and turn it into better services, greater productivity and healthier lives, all essential to Uganda’s tenfold growth ambition.
Students and researchers from Makerere University and other institutions pitched 12 innovations addressing challenges in healthcare, clean energy, agriculture, waste management and community resilience during the inaugural Falling Walls Lab Kampala, held at the School of Public Health Auditorium, Makerere University.
The competition brought together emerging innovators to present solutions to practical challenges through a three minute pitch, followed by questions from a panel of judges.
Modelled on the Falling Walls format that originated in Berlin, the event required each participant to identify a “wall” a problem or barrier, and demonstrate how their innovation seeks to break it down.
Mudhasi wins with newborn jaundice screening device
Andrew Mudhasi of Makerere University emerged as the overall winner with a score of 90 per cent for a low cost medical device designed to improve newborn jaundice screening across different skin tones.
Overall competition winner Andrew Mudhasi (left) receives his first Place award certificate for his innovation
Mudhasi explained that the device uses optical sensor technology and a skin tone targeting algorithm to provide a rapid reading, with the aim of helping nurses and clinicians identify jaundice more efficiently.
During questions from the jury, Mudhasi said the device had not yet been tested on actual babies but had undergone laboratory testing using simulated skin tones.
He reported an accuracy rate of 94 per cent when the device was compared with laboratory spectrophotometers.
The innovation is intended initially for use in clinics and hospitals, with Mudhasi saying the team is also considering a version that could eventually allow mothers to screen babies at home.
Mudhasi’s innovation has previously received recognition at the African Business Concept Challenge and the iF Design Student Award, according to his presentation.
Rhonda’s innovation tackles diaper waste
Rhoda John of the University of Nairobi emerged in second place with 89.6 per cent for an innovation addressing the problem of used diaper waste.
Rhondah John pitches her innovation repurposing diaper waste into soil moisture retention
Under the theme “Breaking the wall of diaper waste and drug soils,” Rhonda explained that her team extracts sodium polyacrylate, the absorbent polymer found in diapers, and replaces the sodium with potassium.
The resulting potassium based superabsorbent material is designed to act as a “water battery” in soil by absorbing and retaining water for plants during dry periods.
John said testing showed a 99 per cent increase in germination and a 23 per cent increase in drought resistance.
The innovation also seeks to reduce the amount of used diapers ending up in landfills and the environmental effects associated with their decomposition.
During the question and answer session, John explained that her team was working with government environmental officials in Nairobi on a pilot collection system to address the challenge of gathering used diapers at scale.
Mahera takes third place with herbal peptic ulcer treatment
Stuart Mahera of Makerere University finished third with 86.2 per cent for a herbal formulation targeting peptic ulcers.
Stuart Mayira (left) receives his 3rd Place award certicate at the school of Public Health Auditorium.
Presenting under the theme “Breaking the wall of Nature and Modern Medicine,” Mahera argued that conventional treatment for peptic ulcers can involve multiple medicines and may be associated with side effects and antimicrobial resistance.
His proposed formulation, MARAC capsules, is intended as a monotherapy, combining properties required for peptic-ulcer treatment in a single capsule.
Mahera said his team had carried out quality control work, including characterisation and dose quantification, and had conducted preclinical trials on laboratory mice.
He also told the jury that an application had been submitted to the National Drug Authority as the team awaits the next stage of the regulatory process.
According to Mahera, the proposed seven day treatment would cost about Shs21,000, compared with the existing 14 day treatment approach.
Innovators present solutions to practical challenges
The remaining presentations covered a wide range of challenges.
Esther Nakungu of Utamu University presented Agri-Track, a digital record keeping solution intended to improve visibility, accountability and management of farm operations and financial information.
Dr. Jimmy Chachiga, a Makerere University participant, presented a solar photovoltaic cooker with a heat storage system designed to provide a cleaner and more reliable cooking option during both sunny and non sunny periods.
His presentation focused on reducing dependence on biomass fuels and addressing the challenges associated with intermittent solar energy.
Abdul Noor Luttamaguzi, a PhD student and senior government fisheries officer, presented a mobile application aimed at helping fish farmers and extension officers report, track and manage disease outbreaks.
Henry Duke Tamale presented a herbal cream targeting antibiotic resistant biofilm infections associated with diabetic foot ulcers.
Marvin Seruwu proposed adapting existing near infrared brain monitoring technology to help detect extra-axial brain bleeds in health facilities where access to CT and MRI equipment is limited.
His proposal seeks to repurpose existing technology towards a diagnostic need that could be particularly important in settings where advanced imaging facilities are not readily available.
Kennedy Kisame presented a poultry alert and diagnosis system combining satellite weather information with computer vision disease detection. The proposed system could be accessed through a smartphone application, SMS or USSD, making it potentially usable by farmers with limited internet access.
Frank Atwiine proposed a solar powered mobile diagnostic van designed to bring ultrasound and other diagnostic services closer to rural communities.
Johnson Makmot, a software and blockchain developer, presented a platform that combines GPS tracking and blockchain-based tokens to incentivise and verify plastic-waste collection in Kampala.
Dr. Nelson Ndugu, from a partner university, presented an artificial intelligence tool designed to translate agricultural research publications into local Ugandan languages and generate voice notes for radio-based extension delivery.
The final presentation came from Dr. Juliet Akola, a Ugandan post doctoral researcher at Mangosuthu University of Technology in South Africa.
Akola presented a community digital resilience initiative focused on mapping risks in Kampala’s informal settlements, including flooding, fire, poor sanitation, waste management and inadequate infrastructure.
Her proposal seeks to combine local community knowledge with geographical information systems and link identified risks to action plans involving municipalities and other stakeholders.
Nawangwe calls for more investment in innovation
Closing the event, Prof. Nawangwe congratulated all the participants and described their presentations as an important beginning for Makerere University, Uganda and the wider region.
Vice Chancellor, Prof. Banabas Nawangwe giving his remarks
Drawing on his experience attending the Falling Walls conference in Berlin, the Vice Chancellor said initiatives of this nature are important because innovation will play a major role in determining the future of countries.
He encouraged participants to make their pitches more precise by clearly identifying the problem they are addressing, explaining their proposed solution and demonstrating what they have already achieved.
Prof. Nawangwe also welcomed the participation of innovators from other universities and countries, noting that the Kampala event had attracted participants beyond Makerere.
He thanked the Africa Office of the Falling Walls Foundation for its role in bringing the initiative to Makerere and encouraged continued support for innovation.
The Vice Chancellor further linked innovation to Uganda’s growing youth population and the need to develop home-grown solutions to address challenges such as youth unemployment.
The inaugural Falling Walls Lab Kampala ultimately provided a platform for innovators to move ideas beyond the classroom and laboratory and demonstrate how research, technology and creativity can be applied to challenges affecting communities.
Research has the greatest value when it moves beyond publication to improve lives.
At Makerere University’s Centre of Excellence for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (MNCH Centre) housed at Makerere University School of Public Health, research, partnerships and innovation are being translated into action to strengthen reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health (RMNCAH) in Uganda and beyond.
Welcome to the September MNCH Centre e-Post 135.
This month, we spotlight how evidence is informing action across reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health (RMNCAH) at the centre.
Explore how Centre researchers and partners are advancing innovations to reduce early perinatal mortality, how Makerere University through the Centre and WHO are strengthening capacity to monitor health inequalities, and how the Centre and its partners are leveraging AI to strengthen health systems and improve malaria surveillance.
Discover what these innovations could mean for scale, stronger health systems and greater impact.