At a press conference held today Tuesday 16th June 2020, a research team led by Makerere University presented a ‘Mathematical Model of COVID-19 dynamics in Uganda: Using a locally parameterized system to enhance intervention policies’. The aim of the research from which the model is developed was to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Uganda and use the results to provide comprehensive forecast of the disease’ trends. The model endeavours to provide appropriate evidence-based policy support to government on the timing and nature of intervention measures.
The research team that worked on the study is led by Prof. Joseph Y.T. Mugisha, a Professor of Biomathematics (Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences). Professor Mugisha is also the Principal of the College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University. Other members of the team are: Dr. Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba (Makerere University), Dr. Joseph Ssebuliba (Makerere University) Dr. Amos Ssematimba (Gulu University), and Dr. Cliff Richard Kikawa (Kabale University).
The Vice Chancellor – Makerere University, Professor Barnabas Nawangwe and the Deputy Vice Chancellor –Academic Affairs, Associate Professor Umar Kakumba attended the press conference.
In his remarks, Professor Nawangwe welcomed the press to Makerere University thanking them for informing the public about the research and innovations developed by staff and students of Makerere University. He said ‘as we all are aware, COVID-I9 is a big global challenge and Makerere as a lead research institution is working to provide solutions to the pandemic at the national, regional and global levels with our partners’. He reiterated his appreciation of the Government of Uganda for providing funds through the Makerere Research and Innovation Fund that enabled the team to undertake the study presented.
Study Conclusion
The findings of this study show that the immediately implemented measures by the Government of Uganda averted thousands of cases that would have overstretched the health system within a couple of months. Without significantly altering the current situation, measures on partial lockdowns and use of masks are insufficient to stop COVID-19 and as such the disease will remain endemic in the population. In all the assessed scenarios the disease would be wiped out in the case where there are no infected arrivals beyond the first 58 days and in this case the disease would be wiped out within 200 days.
With the worrying situation of increased reported cases in our neighbouring countries, the impact of Uganda’s interventions would be greatly affected as results show that doubling the imported cases would almost triple both the maximum number of hospitalized individuals and the number of undetected cases.
Screening of truck drivers faces a challenge of reagent limitation, imperfect test accuracy, arrival of asymptomatic and latently infected individuals that may pass as false negatives during screening as well as the porosity of some of the national borders. Thus, adoption of alternative less-risky means of essential cargo delivery (e.g., by rail and ship services) combined with quarantining of all entrants for a duration not shorter than the incubation period should be enforced.
Amidst challenges of social-economic impact of COVID-19, agitation of lifting lockdown may downplay the impact of intervention measures and the study findings highlight the importance of optimal timing and magnitude of lockdown easing. Effectively phased-out ease of lockdown needs to be well studied and executed to avoid the possibility of a second wave.
Study Recommendations
1. It is not advisable to eased lockdown by releasing 50% of susceptible population for the Ugandan situation with current 3200 hospital beds and not all are of ICU-like capacity, because within 100 days the COVID-19 related hospitalization demand would have already overwhelmed the current resources.
2. Since the consequences of hospital acquired infections go beyond merely increasing the number of cases, their mitigation should be given high priority.
3. Lifted to a 75% level, the yet-to-be detected cases in the community have potential to start a second and more disastrous epidemic wave. However, with enhanced surveillance and contact tracing, gradual easing by releasing smaller percentages of susceptible individuals from lockdown can still be safely executed sooner than the optimum 210 days for up to 75% susceptible level.
4. The issue of handling truck drivers mingling at service and testing centres at border crossings should be reinforced – preferably, government should set up treatment and isolation facilities as close as possible to the testing border points not to overwhelmed the existing regional facilities, optimize scarce handling resources and also to minimize stigma and community discontent. This would in addition reduce the time frontline workers are exposed to the risk of infection amidst lack of well-equipped ambulances
5. Since latently infected individuals can only be detected after latent period, effort should be put on obtaining information on where the drivers have been few days before arrival to understand the risk of admitting persons from high risk regions of neighbouring countries. The risk of imported cases is not only posed by those who test positive but also due to false negatives and latently infected individuals.
Makerere University School of Public Health (MakSPH), through the Africa-Europe Cluster of Research Excellence (CoRE) for Preparedness and Response to Pandemics and Shocks, has shared findings from its study of Uganda’s Mpox response with stakeholders in Kasese, Amuru, Nakasongola and Mayuge districts to strengthen district preparedness for future outbreaks.
The Africa-Europe CoRE is a partnership co-led by MakSPH and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at UCLouvain, Belgium. It brings together universities in Africa and Europe to strengthen research, training and preparedness for pandemics and other public health shocks.
The district-level dissemination meetings, held from 10 to 14 August 2026, brought together more than 100 local government, health and security officials, Village Health Teams, implementing partners and community representatives. The meetings enabled stakeholders to validate the district-level findings, identify practical actions and provide feedback for the study’s final analysis and national dissemination.
Mr. Philliam Jabim shares the Mpox response study findings with participants during the dissemination meeting in Nakasongola District on 12 August 2026.
Uganda confirmed its first two Mpox cases on 24 July 2024 at Bwera Hospital in Kasese District. The Ministry of Health declared an outbreak on 2 August 2024. As documented in the study, the response involved health workers, communities, local governments, security agencies, political leaders, and implementing partners.
In response to the outbreak, a MakSPH research team led by Prof. Rhoda Wanyenze, Dr. Rawlance Ndejjo, Dr. Steven Kabwama and Mr. Douglas Bulafu conducted a study in May 2025 to assess Uganda’s Mpox response, including its policies, interventions, strategies and challenges, and generate lessons to inform recovery and strengthen preparedness for future public health emergencies.
Using purposive sampling, the research team conducted 20 key informant interviews and five focus group discussions in each of the four districts, drawing perspectives from western Uganda in Kasese, northern Uganda in Amuru, central Uganda in Nakasongola and eastern Uganda in Mayuge.
Participants and the MakSPH research team at the Mpox response study dissemination meeting in Nakasongola District on 12 August 2026.
The study, titled Assessment of the Mpox Response in Uganda: Documenting Challenges, Lessons and Innovations to Strengthen Emergency Preparedness and Response Capacities, was funded by the Government of Uganda through the Makerere UniversityResearch and Innovation Fund (Mak-RIF).
“This study is helping us move beyond recounting the Mpox response to identifying the actions that districts and national partners can take before the next outbreak. By validating the findings with stakeholders who led and experienced the response, we are ensuring that the evidence reflects local realities and can inform stronger surveillance, risk communication, coordination and community engagement,” said Mr. Bulafu, who led the MakSPH team during the dissemination meeting in Amuru.
Mr. Douglas Bulafu engages participants during the Mpox response study dissemination meeting in Amuru District on 10 August 2026.
In Amuru, the 10 August meeting brought together over 25 stakeholders from the district health team, political leadership, security agencies, Village Health Teams, implementing partners and the community. On the same day, a second MakSPH team, led by Mr. Keneth Sebukeera and Mr. Filimin Niyongabo, convened stakeholders in Kasese for a parallel validation meeting. The consultations then continued in Nakasongola on 12 August and concluded in Mayuge on 14 August, extending the study’s engagement across all four districts.
Across the districts, stakeholders said the results reflected their experience during the outbreak. They pointed to strengths in leadership, coordination, community engagement and partner support, while also describing gaps in documentation, logistics, diagnostic access, staffing, risk communication, public trust and continuity of essential health services.
They also noted inconsistent implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) 7-1-7 target, which calls for detecting a suspected outbreak within seven days, notifying public health authorities within one day and completing early response actions within seven days.
The MakSPH research team, led by Mr. Keneth Sebukeera and Mr. Filimin Niyongabo, with participants during the Mpox response study dissemination meeting in Kasese District on 10 August 2026.
In Kasese, stakeholders highlighted gaps in documentation, financial and logistical resources, and human resources. They identified Village Health Teams and grassroots, religious and cultural leaders as important resources for community surveillance and risk communication. They called for stronger collaboration between technical and non-technical leaders, engagement with traditional healers, greater use of local radio for public sensitisation, and better facilitation of district epidemic response teams to reach distant communities.
Amuru participants called for proactive preparedness in the border district, citing misinformation and rumours as barriers to risk communication. They urged timely, accurate information from health workers and other authorities; training in disease surveillance and grant writing to strengthen capacity and resource mobilisation; and compassionate care, psychosocial support and community awareness to reduce stigma and support survivor reintegration.
During the meeting in Nakasongola, stakeholders identified Community Health Workers and Community Health Extension Workers as potential resources for strengthening community surveillance and addressing workforce shortages. Given the district’s position around Lake Kyoga and along the Kampala-South Sudan transit corridor, they also called for stronger documentation, note-taking and reporting, accurate real-time information, closer communication with the Ministry of Health, and collaboration among technical, political, religious and community leaders.
Ms. Eunice Vivian Asingo, Senior Nursing Officer at Nakasongola Health Centre IV, contributes to the discussion during the Mpox response study dissemination meeting in Nakasongola District on 12 August 2026.
Ms. Eunice Vivian Asingo, Senior Nursing Officer at Nakasongola Health Centre IV, called for a permanent, adequately resourced outbreak-management centre to help protect routine services during future epidemics. “We appeal for better facilities to manage epidemics and outbreaks. At Nakasongola Health Centre IV, spaces previously used for outbreak management have been repurposed for other services, and we have limited staff. During the Mpox response, colleagues assigned to manage patients later returned to the general team, creating fear among staff already under pressure,” she said.
In Mayuge, Dr. Basembeza highlighted leadership, coordination and surveillance structures operating from district to community level as important factors in the response. He said the structures enabled the district to receive and respond quickly to community alerts. “Whenever there is a rumour or an alert, we are able to respond. Within 20 minutes, we had a response because of the structure we have,” Dr. Basembeza said.
Based on the findings, the research team recommends increased preparedness financing, stronger community engagement, decentralised diagnostic services through stronger district laboratory capacity, and improved health information and research systems.
Across the four districts, stakeholders reaffirmed that trusted community structures and coordinated action across sectors are essential to strengthening outbreak preparedness.
It is a pleasure to present the January – June 2026 edition of the MakGrad Newsletter by Makerere University Directorate of Graduate Training. At the Directorate of Graduate Training we are committed to building an enabling environment where our students can flourish and their academic journey is well-supported. Formerly one of the two main divisions that constituted the Directorate of Research and Graduate Training, the stand alone Directorate of Graduate Training is mandated to coordinate and administer all matters related to postgraduate studies.
At time when Makerere University is steadily transforming into a research led institution, we are on hand to review and initiate policies meant to provide a conducive environment for graduate training and innovative research. From redesigned PhD crosscutting courses, enhanced supervision structures, improved infrastructure, to stronger partnerships with global institutions — we are laying the foundation for increased success.
In this edition of our newsletter, we share with you highlights of some of the activities during the period January – June 2026. The 76th graduation ceremony in February 2026 recorded key important in roads in Makerere University’s efforts to respond to the country’s need for increased capacity in doctoral training. The 213 PhDs was a significant increase from the previous number of 144. It reflects an intentional progress towards increased completion rates. Beyond focusing on technical expertise, the Directorate coordinates efforts to cultivate critical thinking, problem-solving, communication, and interdisciplinary fluency of all our graduate students. Today’s challenges rarely fit neatly into one discipline; they demand collaboration across disciplinary fields. In this edition of the Newsletter, we share some of the training of trainers and learners’ trainings we have conducted to achieve this objective.
I thank all the staff of the Directorate and the university at large, the graduate students and all the stakeholder for the support and collaboration. You are part of a growing, supportive community committed to excellence and transformation that our country prides in.
The latest Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa (CARTA) Newsletter (Issue 22, January–June 2026), themed Research to Impact showcases how CARTA fellows, graduates, and partner institutions are moving evidence beyond publications into policy, practice, innovation, and everyday lives.
An article titled “Why Research Uptake Requires More Than Good Science” featuring Dr. Godwin Anywar, a Lecturer in the Department of Plant Sciences, Microbiology and Biotechnology, Makerere University’s work precisely captures this transition. His research began by systematically documenting indigenous medicinal plants used by traditional healers in Uganda to support people living with HIV/AIDS. This work has grown into internationally recognized science that has informed understanding of traditional medicine, sparked global collaborations, and even reached communities through a traveling mobile museum.
Dr. Anywar’s personal reflection captures this succinctly: producing good research was only the beginning. Visibility, deliberate communication, sustained engagement, and opportunities to share the work were equally essential in transforming locally generated evidence into global influence.
Beyond his work, this edition of the Newsletter captures; research shaping better care for TB survivors in Malawi, smarter solutions for mosquito control emerging, efforts to transform graduate supervision institution by institution, and reflections on embedding stakeholder engagement as a core university function.
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