By Wilber Tumutegyereize

In a significant step toward strengthening fiscal governance and enhancing evidence-based decision-making, the Parliament of Uganda, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development and Makerere University, has launched a five-day intensive training programme on Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling.

The training brings together staff of the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) for a comprehensive capacity-building programme designed to deepen their analytical expertise in assessing national budgets, evaluating fiscal policy options, and generating independent, data-driven advice for Members of Parliament. The initiative forms part of a broader institutional strategy to reinforce Parliament’s oversight role and ensure that national budgeting processes are aligned with Uganda’s development priorities as articulated in the National Development Plan and Parliament’s Strategic Plan.

Strengthening Evidence-Based Fiscal Oversight

Speaking at the opening session on behalf of the Manager of the Public Investment Management (PIM) Centre of Excellence at Makerere University, Dr. Peter Babyenda emphasized that the increasing complexity of Uganda’s fiscal environment demands stronger analytical capacity within Parliament.

“This training comes at a critical time when the demands on Parliament to undertake rigorous scrutiny of fiscal and economic policy have never been greater,” Dr. Babyenda stated.

He noted that Parliament’s constitutional mandate—to legislate, appropriate public funds, and oversee government expenditure—requires objective, independent, and technically sound economic analysis. The Parliamentary Budget Office plays a central role in fulfilling this mandate by providing Members of Parliament with timely assessments of revenue projections, expenditure allocations, public debt sustainability, and macroeconomic trends.

Dr. Babyenda explained that the Government’s Integrated Macroeconomic Model provides a holistic framework for understanding the interconnections between economic growth, fiscal policy, public investment, inflation, debt dynamics, and household welfare. By incorporating this model into parliamentary analysis, the PBO will be better positioned to simulate alternative policy scenarios and assess their short- and long-term implications.

Institutional Priorities

Mr. Henry Waiswa, Deputy Clerk to Parliament in charge of Corporate Affairs, contextualized the training within Parliament’s broader institutional reform agenda. He underscored Parliament’s constitutional responsibility to legislate, allocate resources, and oversee the management of public finances.

“Since its establishment under the Budget Act and its anchoring under the Administration of Parliament Act, the Parliamentary Budget Office has become a cornerstone of evidence-based fiscal oversight,” Mr. Waiswa noted.

He observed that Uganda’s public financial management landscape has become increasingly complex, with evolving fiscal pressures, development financing needs, and global economic uncertainties. In such an environment, Parliament must not only examine headline budget figures but also anticipate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of policy decisions on households, businesses, and vulnerable communities.

Mr. Waiswa further expressed appreciation to the Ministry of Finance, Makerere University, and the Resource Enhancement and Accountability Programme (REAP) for their technical and financial support in designing and facilitating the training.

Academic Expertise and Analytical Rigor

Professor Edward Bbaale, Director of the PIM Centre of Excellence at Makerere University, highlighted the critical role of academia in strengthening public sector institutions. He emphasized that collaboration between Parliament, the Ministry of Finance, and Makerere University reflects a shared commitment to improving the quality of fiscal governance.

“When our key public institutions work together, we enhance the credibility of economic management and ensure that policy decisions are informed by rigorous analysis,” Professor Bbaale said.

He explained that Integrated Macroeconomic Models combine key economic indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), government revenue and expenditure, inflation, debt, investment, and external balances, into a unified analytical framework. These models enable analysts to conduct “what-if” simulations, test policy assumptions, and evaluate trade-offs between competing fiscal priorities.

Professor Bbaale urged participants to fully utilize the five-day training to strengthen their technical proficiency and contribute meaningfully to Parliament’s oversight function.

Practical Application and Long-Term Impact

The training programme emphasizes hands-on learning, allowing participants to work directly with the Integrated Macroeconomic Model. Through practical exercises, PBO staff will learn how to:

• Simulate alternative fiscal and macroeconomic scenarios.
• Assess revenue and expenditure implications of policy proposals.
• Evaluate public debt sustainability and fiscal risks.
• Examine distributional impacts on poverty, inequality, and household welfare.
• Develop evidence-based policy briefs for Members of Parliament.

Dr. Babyenda reiterated that the value of the training lies in its practical application.

“The ultimate measure of success will be how effectively participants apply these tools to real parliamentary analysis,” he said. “It is through this application that Parliament can maintain rigorous oversight over public finances.”

A Strategic Investment in Institutional Capacity

By institutionalizing the use of Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling within the Parliamentary Budget Office, Uganda is making a strategic investment in sustainable institutional capacity. The initiative ensures that parliamentary analysts are trained using the same analytical frameworks applied in national fiscal planning, thereby reinforcing both technical quality and independence in budget scrutiny.

As Uganda navigates evolving economic challenges, the strengthened capacity of the PBO will enable Parliament to critically evaluate budget proposals, anticipate policy outcomes, and provide informed, transparent, and accountable oversight of public resources.

The five-day Integrated Macroeconomic Modelling training thus represents a pivotal milestone in advancing Uganda’s commitment to sound fiscal management, democratic governance, and evidence-based policymaking.

A new study led by scientists from Makerere University School of Public Health has demonstrated that short-term climate variability plays a significant role in malaria transmission in Yumbe District, West Nile sub-region of Uganda. The study, Climate variability and malaria incidence trends in Yumbe District, West Nile Sub-region of Uganda (2017–2021), by Lesley Rose Ninsiima, Rogers Musiitwa, Zaitune Nanyunja, James Muleme, Chris Maasaba, Twahiri Anule, and David Musoke, was published in February 2026 in Malaria Journal through Springer Nature Link.

Today, malaria remains a major public health burden in Uganda, where environmental conditions support sustained transmission. Despite persistent outbreaks in northern Uganda, limited local evidence exists on how the changing climate patterns influence malaria trends. This study addressed that gap by examining five years of malaria surveillance data alongside district-level rainfall and temperature records.

Using routine health facility reports from the District Health Information System (DHIS) and climate data from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), the researchers applied time-series analysis to assess seasonal patterns and delayed climate effects on malaria incidence. Between 2017 and 2021, Yumbe District recorded 2,066,711 malaria cases, with transmission showing clear seasonal peaks between May and July and September and November, aligning with rainy periods.

Their analysis showed that rainfall was the strongest climatic driver of malaria transmission. Increased rainfall was associated with higher malaria cases approximately one month later, reflecting the time needed for mosquito breeding and transmission cycles. In contrast, higher minimum temperatures were linked to reduced malaria incidence, while maximum temperature showed no significant effect. Together, rainfall and minimum temperature explained a substantial proportion of variation in malaria cases, highlighting malaria’s sensitivity to short-term climate fluctuations.

The study findings underscore the value of integrating climate information into malaria surveillance and early warning systems to anticipate transmission peaks and guide timely interventions. Strengthening collaboration between public health and meteorological sectors, the researchers argue, could improve preparedness and support climate-informed malaria control strategies in high-burden settings.

Further details: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-026-05824-0

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African economies are increasingly exposed to climate-related shocks that threaten development gains, fiscal sustainability, and macroeconomic stability. From extreme weather events and biodiversity loss to the depletion of natural capital, climate risks are reshaping economic realities across the continent. Yet many macroeconomic frameworks used in public finance and planning continue to overlook climate and nature-related risks and the long-term benefits of resilience and adaptation investments.

To address this emerging reality, over 250 participants from Africa, Europe and beyond, convened at Makerere University – Kampala, on the 12^th and 13^th of February 2026, to participate in the First African Symposium on Natural Capital Accounting and Climate-Sensitive Macroeconomic Modelling.

Following the theme, “Climate-Sensitive Macroeconomics: Rethinking Growth in Africa’s Natural Resource Base, the hybrid symposium organized by Makerere University through the Centre of Excellence for Africa Climate-Sensitive Macroeconomic Modelling (CEACM) within the School of Economics, under the College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS), the Environment for Development Initiative (EfD), and the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) in Uganda, brought onboard ministers, leading economists and planners, researchers, policy makers, the academia, development partners, climate change experts and the media.

The Symposium being the first of its kind on the continent, reflected Africa’s growing determination to work collectively in confronting shared development challenges, building on recent momentum such as the formation of Pan-African Finance Ministers Forum for Climate Action (PAFMCA).

Featuring speeches and presentations from notable speakers and partners, a keynote address on Natura Capital Accounting and Climate Change Nexus in Africa and their impact on Fiscal Policy, panel discussions, expert opinions, and exhibition kiosks (World Café), the symposium presented a platform to strengthen Africa’s analytical and institutional capacity to integrate climate and natural capital considerations into macroeconomic and fiscal policy.

Vice Chancellor underscores the role of universities

Welcoming the delegates to Makerere University, the Vice Chancellor-Prof. Barnabas Nawangwe emphasized that universities must lead innovation and collaborative research efforts to support collective climate change mitigation across the continent.

In the same vein, he advocated for strong collaboration between universities in Africa and government Ministries. “Makerere’s collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, stands as a shining example of how academia and government can strengthen economic management,” he said.

Prof. Nawangwe revealed that the collaboration between Makerere University and the Ministry, has strengthened macroeconomic modelling, fiscal policy analysis, and technical capacity within government. In addition, the partnership led to the establishment of the Centre of Excellence for Africa Climate-Sensitive Macroeconomic Modelling, bridging academic scholarship with real-world policy application.

“We have jointly established the Centre of Excellence for Africa Climate-Sensitive Macroeconomic Modelling. The Centre (established in August 2025) is anchored within the School of Economics in the Department of Policy and Development Economics, under the Master of Science in Economic Policy and Investment Modelling, a program jointly facilitated by Makerere University, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development and the Bank of Uganda,” he mentioned.

Climate and Economic transformation are inseparable

The Vice Chancellor highlighted the critical intersection between economic transformation and environmental sustainability, noting that economies in Africa, heavily dependent on natural resources, face unprecedented pressures from climate shocks, biodiversity loss, and environmental degradation. Convinced that economic growth cannot be pursued in isolation from climate and environmental realities, he stressed the importance of integrating natural capital accounting and climate considerations into national development strategies.

Prof. Nawangwe advocated for shared responsibility of universities, research institutions, and policymakers to develop innovative analytical tools, responsive policy frameworks, and strong institutional capacities that promote sustainable growth while safeguarding environmental assets for future generations.

The Vice Chancellor commended UN PAGE and the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) for funding the symposium, as well as, other stakeholders namely the European Union and the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action (CoFMCA), Ministry of Water and Environment (MoWE), National Planning Authority (NPA), Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) for being reliable partners.

Integrating Climate into Fiscal Policy

During the opening ceremony, the Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Hon. Matia Kasaija underscored the urgency of embedding climate considerations into economic planning. 

“As Ministers of Finance, we are often confronted with difficult trade-offs. Our task is to balance the needs of today with sustainability for future generations,” said Hon. Kasaija, in a speech read by Hon. Henry Musasizi, the Minister of State for Finance (General Duties).

The Minister guided that traditional macroeconomic models focusing only on growth, inflation, and fiscal balance are inadequate in an era of climate shocks. He affirmed that African economies are facing interconnected challenges which directly impact economic growth. He stressed that traditional macroeconomic frameworks must evolve to systematically incorporate environmental degradation and climate shocks, whose consequences can no longer be ignored in policy analysis.

“For countries such as Uganda, whose development prospects are closely linked to natural resources and the climate-sensitive sectors, these challenges are not abstract. They affect livelihoods, public finances and long-term economic resilience,” he mentioned.

The Minister emphasized that natural capital accounting and climate-sensitive macroeconomic modelling are vital for valuing natural assets, assessing environmental costs, and guiding sound investment decisions.

Protecting Africa’s Natural Capital

Hon. Beatrice Atim Anywar, Minister of State for Environment, emphasized the urgent need to protect Africa’s ecosystems. “Africa stands at a defining crossroads. Our economies remain anchored in natural capital—forests, water resources, biodiversity, land, and ecosystems—which sustain life, generate fiscal revenue, and underpin development,” she said.

She warned that climate-related shocks are already undermining growth and public investment. “Floods, droughts, land degradation, biodiversity loss, and water stress are no longer distant risks. They are present realities, already affecting productivity and macroeconomic stability,” she said.

She emphasized the need for improved economic models that account for environmental and climate risks: “Traditional macroeconomic frameworks have not adequately captured climate risks or the long-term economic benefits of resilience and adaptation. This limits our ability to make informed policy decisions as Africa pursues economic transformation, energy security, and fiscal stability,” she stated.

Hon. Anywar highlighted collaboration with GIZ, Makerere University, and government ministries, which led to the development of the MONCAP (Model for Natural Capital Policy Assessment). “This tool is being used to assess natural capital assets for climate change, energy transition, and their linkages to the macroeconomy. It supports budgeting by estimating the cost of depleted natural capital assets,” she said.

“Water security, forest conservation, ecosystem restoration, and climate adaptation are not costs. They are investments in Uganda’s long-term economic stability, productivity, and prosperity.”

Stakeholders urged to transform climate threats into opportunities

Adam Sparre Spliid, the Deputy Head of Mission, Danish Embassy said: “Integrating climate risk and natural capital into our macroeconomics frameworks is not only academic exercise, it is a massive de-risking strategy for private investment. By bridging the gap between government policy and planning, academia and research, and the private markets, we transform climate threats into tangible opportunities.”

Sustainability includes youth, jobs and human well-being

Dr. Steven Stone, Chair of the UN PAGE Management Board, emphasized that sustainability extends beyond the environment to encompass youth, jobs, economic growth, and human well-being. “While the environment is Africa’s foundational source of wealth, sustainable development requires balancing ecological stewardship with economic progress, including income and employment for the youth which are critical priorities for countries such as Uganda.”

Dr. Stone highlighted that UN PAGE, originating from the Rio+20 Conference, supports climate-sensitive economic policy in Africa, emphasizing that dialogue, scenario-building, cross-sector collaboration, and strong partnerships are key to advancing sustainable, inclusive, and climate-resilient development.

Africa’s Wealth Declining

In the keynote address titled, Natural Capital Accounting and Climate Change Nexus in Africa and their Impact on Fiscal Policy, Paul Jonathan Martin, Manager of Environmental Operations at the World Bank for Eastern and Southern Africa, and a specialist with over 30 years in climate and natural resources, warned that Africa’s overall wealth is under threat due to declining renewable natural capital.

“Produced capital has increased by 20%, human capital by a third, but renewable capital has declined by 30%,” Martin said. “When combined, Africa’s overall wealth trajectory has been weakening since 2010.”

He stressed that natural resources must be treated as economic assets requiring systematic accounting: “Africa’s rich natural resources are fundamental for sustainable development,” he said.

Citing examples from Ethiopia and Kenya, he highlighted successful integration of natural capital into public investment and budget decisions. “In Ethiopia, there are payments for ecosystems and investment prioritization tools. In Kenya, natural capital accounting integration into budgets has strengthened public investments. Climate change has deep, cascading effects across sectors, but Africa has major potential to lead climate solutions,” he said.

Martin also highlighted the economic benefits of climate adaptation: “From 2020–2050, the cumulative effect of adaptation on Uganda’s GDP is positive. Without action, under a dry/hot climate future, GDP could significantly deviate from projected growth paths.”

Drawing on insights from over 70 country climate and development reports produced by the World Bank, the keynote speaker highlighted the profound macroeconomic impacts of climate change across Africa. He stressed the importance of integrating climate and natural capital into macroeconomic planning. He noted that Africa’s forests, water systems, and biodiversity are vital for sustainable development but face growing threats from climate change, environmental degradation, and climate-related disasters that undermine productivity, public investment, and economic stability.

He observed that traditional macroeconomic models often fail to capture the value of natural assets and regulating ecosystem services, which are critical to both economic stability and resilience but are largely excluded from GDP calculations.

Africa-Led Solutions

Prof. Edward Bbaale, Principal, College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS), stressed the importance of developing African-led solutions. “We need to champion the Africa-led model. We need approaches that fit our unique context. Africa is not here to take in other frameworks blindly,” he said.

By supporting research, training, policy dialogue and modelling innovation, the Centre of Excellence for Africa Climate Sensitive Macroeconomic Modelling (CEACM) positions Makerere University as a regional hub for advancing climate-sensitive macroeconomic policy across Africa.

He highlighted CEACM’s capacity-building programs: “Our goal is to ensure African Ministries of Finance have home-grown expertise to integrate climate and natural capital considerations into fiscal and macroeconomic policy. This is critical for long-term resilience and sustainable development,” he said.

The Principal explained that establishment of independent research centres enables Makerere University to go beyond traditional academic instruction and focus deeply on societal challenges, particularly those related to climate change, environmental degradation, and biodiversity loss.

He reported that the Centre of Excellence for Africa Climate-Sensitive Macroeconomic Modelling is structured to advance methodological innovation, develop new data systems, and strengthen climate-sensitive macroeconomic tools that are tailored to the African context.

MONCAP Model for Policy Assessment        

Dr. Peter Babyenda, a member of faculty at CoBAMS, demonstrated MONCAP (Model for Natural Capital Policy Assessment), which integrates climate and natural capital variables into fiscal and macroeconomic planning.

“MONCAP allows policymakers to estimate the economic cost of depleting natural assets such as forests, wetlands, and water resources. It helps simulate policy options and determine how investments in natural capital yield long-term benefits,” Babyenda said. “We came up with this model to aid the Ministry of Water and Environment. This model is open—you can extend it,” he added.

He highlighted capacity-building initiatives, including short courses and the Master of Science in Macroeconomic and Investment Modelling, designed to train economists to incorporate natural capital and climate into policy planning.

International Perspectives

Sweetman Liam, Ireland’s Finance Minister, highlighted the economic value of ecosystems: “There is a deeper value of landscapes in flood prevention and biodiversity. Decision-making was informed, and people started understanding economic value,” he said.

Prof. Chukwuone Nnaemeka of the University of Nigeria emphasized collaboration with national statistical agencies: “We coordinate with the National Bureau of Statistics to develop natural capital accounting metrics. Increase the use of Natural Capital Accounting in decision-making,” he stated.

Technical and Parallel Sessions

The afternoon session featured three parallel sessions focusing on Natural Capital Accounting Methodologies and Best Practices, Climate-Sensitive Fiscal and Economic Modelling, and Natural Capital Accounting and Model Uptake and Use.

Drawing on diverse expertise, the panels highlighted innovative approaches and demonstrated that natural capital is not an environmental afterthought, but a central pillar of sustainable economic and policy planning.

The first day of the African Symposium drew to a close with interactive exhibitions at the World Café, where case studies and practical demonstrations highlighted innovative approaches to integrating climate and natural capital into economic planning. Participants actively engaged in discussions and networking, forging collaborations that promise to advance climate-sensitive fiscal and development strategies across Africa, setting a strong and optimistic tone for the days ahead.