OPINION by PETER BABYENDA | Our recent study conducted in Machakos County, Kenya, revealed that while the provision of climate information is vital for smallholder farmers, it is not sufficient on its own to drive long-term adaptation to climate change. The study highlights the complex interplay between information provision, behavioural responses and institutional support in building resilience among farmers.
We used an experiment to test how farmers responded to three types of climate information: short-term forecasts, long-term unexplained projections and long-term explained projections. Results showed that while explained long-term forecasts improved comprehension and reduced ambiguity, they did not consistently lead to forward-looking investments such as applying irrigation, water harvesting and planting of climate-sensitive crop and animal varieties. Short-term forecasts reinforced seasonal coping strategies, while unexplained projections heightened risk aversion.
Therefore farmers’ decisions on adaptation to climate change seem not to be only shaped by the clarity of climate forecasts but also by liquidity constraints, risk perceptions and institutional barriers.
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The Writer is the EfD-Mak Centre Policy Engagement Coordinator and Lecturer at School of Economics, Makerere University